06 October 2016

Peace in Colombia?

A long way to go yet.

by Neil Tidmarsh

Fifty-two years of armed conflict.  Almost a quarter of a million people killed, over five million displaced.  Half of the country too dangerous to visit.  Marxist guerrillas fighting an ideologically driven rebellion of the rural poor.  Drugs cartels financing the insurgency for the chaos and disorder in which organised crime can flourish.  Paramilitary gangs after reprisals and profit.  The war between Farc (the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and the Colombian state seemed destined to go on for ever.

Last week, however, a ceasefire agreement was signed between President Juan Manuel Santos and the Farc leader Rodrigo Londono (aka Timochenko). As defence minister, Mr Santos had fought hard against the rebels; but on becoming president in 2010, he engaged with them in secret, difficult and protracted negotiations towards peace.

These talks, and the deal which they achieved, used lessons learnt in conflict resolution elsewhere around the world – Northern Ireland, Nepal, Mozambique.  At first, go-betweens carried covert communications to and fro, in and out of jungles and up and down Andean mountains, on digital media such as memory sticks; then spokespersons flew anonymously to Havana for talks in the neutral territory of Cuba.  The talks focused on the victims of all sides in the conflict, and sought from the beginning to address the grievances that had precipitated the rural insurgency in the first place.

A deal was finally reached, after more than four years of talks, and the 15,000 Farc fighters began to disarm, ready to emerge from their camps deep in the jungle or high up in the mountains and begin assimilation into civil life.  The ceasefire was signed with a pen made from melted-down bullets; and the document it signed promised their leaders a type of amnesty. Any of them accused of war crimes would be put on trial: if they confessed, they would be put under ‘restricted liberty’; if they did not and were found guilty, they would go to prison.  Ten leaders would be given seats in the Colombian congress for the next two years, voting only on motions connected to the peace process; after 2018, however, they would have to stand for re-election.

But first, there would have to be a referendum, so the whole country could approve the deal.

The president was confident of success – widespread celebrations had greeted the news that the government and the rebels had reached an agreement and that peace was on its way.  But last weekend’s vote – in the way of refendums, so it now seems – delivered a huge and shocking surprise.

The peace deal was rejected by 50.21% against 49.76%.  The turn out was low; only 13 million voters out of a possible 35 million (the tail-end of Hurricane Matthew may have kept people away from the voting booths).  A small majority – but nevertheless a victory for opposition leader Alvaro Uribe, who argued that the deal was too lenient on rebels who, he insisted, were really just criminals profiting from kidnapping, extortion, murder, theft and drug dealing, rather than ideologically-driven fighters. (Interestingly, however, the regions hardest hit by the insurgents – regions one would assume to be the most vengeful and unforgiving – were the ones which voted most overwhelmingly for peace.)

What now for Colombia? Does this mean that there will be no peace?  Will the war continue?  Both President Santos and the Farc leader Timochenko say that the ceasefire will continue and that negotiations should continue; and the opposition leader Alvaro Uribe will now join those negotiations in order to keep the peace-talks alive and avoid a return to war.

Peace would bring massive benefits to Colombia.  There would be a boom in tourism – the country has fascinating historical cities and beautiful natural wonders.  Its economy, already one of Latin America’s most stable, is set to benefit in other ways.  Colombia is the continent’s third most populous country; it has a growing middle class, a centre-right reformist government and great natural resources; so there would be a boom in investment and exports too.

But even if the talks continue, even if a new peace-deal is agreed, even if the deal is accepted in another referendum, huge problems nevertheless await the country in the implementation of that peace.  The government would have to move quickly to stabilise those remote, rural but vast areas where Farc has been in control; it would have to assert itself against criminal organisations trying to take over in the vacuum; it would have to build infrastructures of transport, healthcare, economic aid and education.  Alternative crops to replace illegal narcotics will have to be established.  Expensive demands; and the current low oil prices won’t help this oil-producing country in its hour of financial need.  And the catastrophic problems of its neighbour Venezuela may well spill across the 1400 mile border between them.

“During war things are black and white. You rally forces around you to beat the enemy… To make peace is a completely different type of leadership where you have to reach the hearts of people and convince them to change their minds. That is much more difficult.”

So said President Santos last week, on signing the peace-deal.  Now those words seem truer than ever – even prophetic.  This week he must be feeling that he’s only just starting, even after six years of patient and difficult negotiations.

 

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