21 March 2019
White Knuckle Ride
Last chance for May deal.
By John Watson
Arlene Foster has said that you do your deal when you can see the whites of the eyes and her theory will now be tested in practice. With Donald Tusk’s statement that the EU will only grant a postponement of Brexit if Mrs May’s resolution is passed, the chips are well and truly down. No more talk of further referenda but a simple choice to be made in the next week. Agree the deal, come out of the EU without a deal or withdraw the Article 50 notice and stay in permanently. That is it, Ladies and Gentlemen, and it is now for the MPs to earn their salaries and their status by putting their and our necks on the line.
So in this infernal game of poker the question becomes who will move and who, after duly sounding off about how unsatisfactory it all is, will crumble and in which direction. There are some who would favour aborting the whole exercise and withdrawing the notice to quit the EU which we have given under article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. Such a step, though, would mean ignoring the referendum result and, however much many MPs may wish that it had gone the other way, it is surely not practical politics. That leaves two green bottles on the wall: a hard Brexit and Mrs May’s deal. Which will they go for?
Only recently the House of Commons passed a resolution against leaving the EU without an agreement. Logically that should mean that they will go for Mrs May’s deal. Still, these things depend on numbers rather than sense so where are the votes to come from?
Let’s start with the extreme Brexiteers. There are those who see Mrs May’s deal as a trap set by the EU which is designed to keep us in the market permanently. That may be right, but whether it will really work is a different question altogether. It is no easy thing to hold such an arrangement in place long term, particularly when you have said that that that is not what is intended. Do you really want a paid up member of the awkward club in your market for ever, believing themselves to have been cheated and being obstructive at every turn? Surely not; as well swallow glass. Still, some of the more extreme Brexiteers will not see that as the reality. Let’s assume the votes will not come from them.
What then of the Remainers in the Labour party? So far the leadership has been equivocal in its approach, finally adopting the idea of a further referendum just before it became impractical. Generally though, the stance has been to attack Mrs May’s deal in the hope of agreeing a closer relationship. Possibly that was because they preferred long term market membership over the ability to do our own trade deals; possibly it was driven by the hope of benefiting electorally if her deal falls. That may sound opportunist but it is the duty of her Majesty’s Opposition to oppose, criticise and test, so perhaps it is excusable. But where now? If they vote against and we leave without an agreement they will hardly be able to say that that was their master plan. If they vote against and we leave with disastrous consequences they may pick up the blame for putting factional politics before the national interest at a time of crisis. Ooops. The dividend from that could be small indeed.
Logically then, and with some jiggery pokery to get round the Speaker’s procedural point, the effect of Tusk’s announcement should be to push May’s plan through and to roll us into the transitional period in a couple of months. That would suit the EU for two reasons. First it would mean the early disappearance of the UK’s MEPs, a source of dissent for many years but, far more importantly, it would keep UK/EU trade going at a time when the Eurozone is moving towards recession. The key to international politics is always in domestic problems, and the financial problems of the EU are the driver behind Mr Tusk’s decision to force a quick solution.
