20 September 2018
Trump
The Second Test.
By J R Thomas
Now, concerning this chap Trump. No, we have not got our cricketers, tycoons, and politicians muddled up. Mr Trump is not noted for any interest in cricket (nor, until recently, for much interest in politics), but he is certainly facing a second test. And at the moment, if you believe the commentators in the media, his prospects are not looking much better than a minor counties side facing Surrey.
One of the features of the modern media is that it wears its sympathies very prominently on its sleeve, whilst claiming that it has no bias or views at all. The dear old BBC is a prime example of this; presenting itself as honest auntie, the impartial voice. As further evidence of how it stands carefully apart from the fray, it cites that it is attacked heavily from both left and right. That’s not necessarily evidence that it has no views of its own of course. It certainly does not happen in the United States. The Washington Post, for example, could not be accused of standing impartial from the struggle in the streets. You do not have to read many columns before you develop a soupcon of a suspicion that the Post is not that keen on President Trump. Indeed you would not be blamed for forming pretty rapidly the view that if the Post found itself next to Mr Trump and a well, the former would soon be in the latter.
The Shaw Sheet tries to keep its views of things to itself. Whether it succeeds no doubt our readers can tell us. On the matter of Mr Trump we would confess to having a bit of soft spot – not on policies or politics, but just for the sheer joy of a politician who says it like it is, without consulting focus groups or image consultants. Whether you like the Trump dogma or no, at least you should have no doubt what you are getting. And just to remove any possible suggestion of columnar bias, the column takes exactly the same view of Bernie Sanders. The senator is a delight in his original thinking, expressed off the cuff and at great volume. Bernie was 77 a few days ago and his energy continues to wear out many younger and fitter politicians.
Mr Trump’s ability to say it like he thinks it is has brought him a loyal raft of supporters, often voters who might more traditionally have marked their ballot papers for the Democrat candidates. But it has also brought forth a bunch of voters who would not vote for him under any circumstances, and another bunch who will support him, but only whilst holding their noses, looking the other way, and crossing two sets of fingers (not easy, all that, admittedly). These latter are mainstream Republicans and they are only going to vote for the Donald if the alternative is to let the Democrats in. Some of them think that that might not be entirely a bad thing anyway.
“Hang on, hang on,” you may well be saying, “what does any of this matter to Mr Trump? He has the job until January 2021”. Indeed he does, but his ability to do it depends on what legislation he can persuade the Senate and the House to support. At the moment he has every Republican President’s dream – Republican control of both houses. But the midterms are in November. Seven weeks away. Because of the seats being contested there is a natural advantage to the Democrats in the House of Representatives, but perhaps to the Republicans in the Senate. In normal circumstances (whatever those might be) the President might be looking at losing his majority in the House but improving it (it is currently only two seats) in the Senate.
But Mr Trump is a man who strongly polarises opinions at every level of the political process. That is going to affect how voters vote in early November. Not for him – they can’t of course – but for Republican candidates. At the moment the Republicans are generally trailing in the polls, but in midterms the candidates themselves become a more important factor than in full term elections – because the Presidential battle does not dominate. That brings lots of regional variation. In this case it does seem that in areas that strongly voted for Mr Trump in 2016 the Republican candidates are doing well. In areas that went for Mrs Clinton, or, more worryingly for the Republicans, were marginal or have a history of change, the Democrat candidates are doing well.
But even that does not help us that much with our November predications. What matters is that old Shaw Sheet bugbear; who will actually turn out to vote? If you are, say, a Republican voter of the nose-holding, sideways-looking, finger-crossing variety, faced with a reasonable enough local Democrat candidate, and with the media full of stories about the President’s history with various girls, his lawyer, several advisors (fill in your own bad Trumpism here), you may decide not to venture to the polling booth on election day, even though you told that nice pollster, after going through your various twitches, that you were a Republican voter.
But if instead you are not very interested in politics, but don’t care for Mr Trump, this time you might make a special effort to turn out, to get the Democrat candidates in and block horrid Mr T’s ability to do anything much.
Turnout in the midterms is usually quite low. So we will venture one prediction (subject to the weather). We suspect the turnout might be higher than normal; and that that might be in most places to the Democrat advantage. The Republicans may get some strong turnouts – but in Trump voting areas where it will simply reinforce existing majorities.
Now we have a new factor, as the distant cloud that conceals Robert Mueller gets bigger and darker. And maybe a bit political, though Mr Mueller would disavow that. Mr Mueller has made a “cooperation agreement” with Paul Manafort, a former associate of the President who however stepped down before the 2016 Presidential run got underway. Mr Manafort was a political fixer and he has been convicted of major tax offences relating to large fees earned from such activities in the Ukraine. “Nothing” as the President said at the time “to do with me”. But what does Mr Manafort know about mysterious Russians and all this cloak and dagger stuff that is such fun? Presumably something, if Mr Mueller is up for a deal of some sort. And if Mr Mueller were thinking of getting up to something a bit political, sowing alarm and confusion about the President just before an election would be a good one, with insinuations of vile deeds and possible impeachments to encourage anti-Trumpites to go vote for Democrat candidates. Mr Mueller does not strike one as that sort of operator, but in this odd world, who knows?
In truth there may be something and there may be nothing, and if there is something it may not touch the Presidency. But at the moment the heavy hints do not help the Presidential or the Republican reputations. The President continues to bowl with great vigour, if not total accuracy. That strange shuffling noise you can hear? That is the Republican Team, quietly moving to the edges of the field. Next time you look, they may be all back in the pavilion, leaving just the President out there.
