22 March 2018
Rolling On
The Revolving Door
by J.R. Thomas
If there were ever a case for rolling news, the Trump Administration is making it. Another day, another sacking; a secretary of state goes, another arrives. It is almost impossible to keep up with who is who and who is doing what. Does The Donald himself always remember who he should call if (for instance) he wants to speak to the head of the CIA or to say goodbye to the Financial Secretary? (This was written on Tuesday evening this week; then it was Gina Haspel and Steven T Mnuchin respectively but best check before calling.)
The latest swing of the revolving door deposited on the pavement outside the White House, the distinguished figure of Rex Tillerson, secretary of state and chief foreign policy advisor to the President. Mr Tillerson’s departure was not a great surprise; his relationship with The Donald has been downhill since he was appointed to the job. Mr Tillerson calling the President an adjective and name not fit for use over breakfast did not help, but more to the point is that Mr Tillerson is a straight-talking Texan with strong views, views which often did not coincide with those of the President, which are in any case subject to constant revision. One of the refreshing features of the President is that he speaks straight; “We were not really thinking the same” he said “[We had] a different mind set…Rex will be much happier now”.
It seems that Mr Tillerson was not aware of the pending adjustment to his happiness until the President announced it; he may have landed on the pavement on top of Gary Cohn, who resigned last week after strongly, but fruitlessly, objecting to Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel. Shortly to add to the group on the pavement will be Hope Hicks, director of communications, who at least managed to get her resignation in before hearing she had been resigned. And just as these distinguished but unemployed persons were getting to their feet and dusting off their suitings, the exit door span again and out came Donald’s personal assistant, John McEntee, fired instantly when put under investigation for unspecified “financial crimes”.
The Trump White House has the highest turnover ever of executive staff, but at least that means rapid promotions for some of those clinging on. Mr Tillerson’s job is been taken on by Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA; and Pompeo’s job there is being taken on by his deputy, Gina Haspel, who becomes the first ever female director of the Agency. If she passes the House confirmation hearings, that is. What is surprising some observers (written on Tuesday remember, if things have moved on since) is that one man who still sits securely in his White House chair is former General John Kelly, the chief of staff. He has recently had a bust up with the First Daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, about access to the President and their roles in policy making. Kelly seems to have won that, but rumour was the conflict had caused him such damage that he would soon be in the ejector seat. Not so far. Not so far on Tuesday, anyway.
At this point the Shaw Sheet takes to Twitter – don’t worry, just Mr Trump’s Twitter. Whilst we discourage communicating complexities in absurd simplicity, this one is worth repeating in full: “The new Fake News narrative is that there is CHAOS in the White House. “Wrong! People will always come & go, and I want strong dialogue before making a final decision. I still have some people that I want to change (always seeking perfection). There is no Chaos, only great Energy!” So, White House staffers; if you are not perfect, better get looking for that private sector job.
It is not just great energy underlying all this change. Mr Trump has been in the job fourteen months now, and like most newbies, after that period of time he is getting a grip on it and feels confident in his ability to stand on his own feet, in a world he barely knew at all two years ago. The Donald does not ever give the impression of lacking confidence in his own abilities, but looking back at his unexpected win (as unexpected to him as to most people) and the early appointments he made, he put strong men, conventional men, indeed military men, around him – the “grown-ups” as they are called on the Hill. Trump’s Generals were men indeed of conservative nature and Republican sympathies, and being military men, used to getting things done. But what Donald probably already knew, and if he didn’t, he does now, is that military men tend to want to do things their way. That was fine when the incoming administration had just started and its Commander in Chief was new on the job. But the military approach is not working so well now that the President is feeling more confident, has learned who he needs to listen to (not many of those) and who he doesn’t (he finds his instincts generally better, or at least, less inclined to argue).
Most of all, there have been political successes. The removal of the costly penalties-as-incentives to join a health insurance scheme, which may yet be a problem but not on the Trump watch, was generally popular. The number of Mexican immigrants is well down, even without the Wall. The Dreamers have been made a Congressional problem, for now. But the big winner has been the changes to the tax code. That has played well with many voters, and also has done a lot to bring back onshore many offshore interests of American corporates, with a rather useful side-effect that many of those corporates are paying significant one-off tax payments to come home. That is a useful boost to the Treasury money bags and will help cover some of Mr Trump’s spending plans. All this has engendered confidence from the President that he does not need grown-ups anymore and is capable of being a grown-up himself.
So expect more Tweets, more startling proposals such as talking with North Korea, more straight-talking about anybody who gets in the Presidents cross-sights – such as Robert Mueller, more tariff walls if not Mexican ones, and more unexpected policy initiatives – death penalties for convicted drug dealers (the public seem to like that one).
But just one chill wind blows, a chill that may gust all summer in a nervous run-up to the November elections. In spite of some improvements to the President’s approval ratings amongst the electorate, the Democrats remain clear favourites to win, and, whilst by-elections are always unreliable indicators of national trends, one last week was not cheering for Republicans. There was a special contest in the Pennsylvania 18th precinct, a Republican safe seat and certainly classic Trump territory – a white working-class rust-bucket zone. The seat was vacated by disgraced Republican eight term holder Tim Murphy (a married pro-lifer who tried to procure an abortion for his pregnant mistress – when these guys fall…). The Republican proposed replacement was a weak candidate, the Democrat a strong one, but even so the Republicans really should have held this. But they didn’t, albeit by the narrowest of margins, just over 0.03% of the vote. That was almost certainly because of the intervention of a Libertarian candidate who took 1300 votes. The GOP needed 628 votes to win.
The President may want to ponder that a little; he paid two visits to Pennsylvania 18. Maybe he should have paid three. Or maybe, none. But that’s another decision he will have to make for himself.
