14 June 2018
More Bull
Change in Spain
by J R Thomas
Sorry, Senor Rajoy. The curse of the Shaw Sheet struck the affable bearded Spanish Prime Minister within days of our article saying that his handling of the Catalonia crisis had strengthened his position in office. Almost needless to say, he is now an ex-Prime Minister.
This sudden end to six and half years in office was nothing to do with Catalonian independence but was due to the outcome of a long-running court case. Various senior officials of Mr Rajoy’s People’s Party (the “PP”), including the party treasurer, (but not the PM), were found guilty of corruption offences, and whilst that result was expected, the political repercussions were not. By some smart and fast manoeuvring in the Cortes, Mr Rajoy’s coalition minority partners were persuaded to withdraw support and a rapid no confidence vote forced the PM and his PP out. The margin was narrow – 180 supporting the motion, 169 against, with one abstention, but the Prime Minister knew his time was up, taking members of his cabinet out to a fish supper during the debate. (One is irresistibly reminded of that famous supper which was key to an Italian Mafia political trial in which all the participants could remember precisely what they ate and drank, but not whom the other guests were, or a single detail of any conversation.)
This may be the beginning of a very different era in Spanish politics. The new Prime Minister, and prize winner for smart manoeuvring, is Pedro Sanchez, leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (“PSOE”). Mr Sanchez is 46, a former professor of economics, has had a somewhat chequered career in his party, and is an atheist. He is well groomed and smartly dressed and very clearly of the new Spain. When sworn into office by the King he used no religious symbols as he took the oath.
However he has already encountered difficulties with one core element of Spanish voters – the football vote. Two years ago Mr Sanchez criticised David De Gea, a key and popular member of the Spanish national football team, for his alleged role in a sexual assault. Mr De Gea was later cleared of any impropriety. Revenge came last weekend – when invited to shake the new PM’s hand Mr De Gea kept his hands firmly in his pockets (he did relent later and gave a brief shake whilst looking the other way.) Home goal against Mr Sanchez, to much media glee. But the football vote may be the least of his problems. The PSOE has only 84 seats in the Cortes so he will need to create and then hold together a coalition from several different parties, some of whom, whilst happy to combine enough to push Rajoy through the exit door, are not too happy with Mr Sanchez’s positions on various matters.
Top of the list of potential troubles, not surprisingly, is Catalonia. Mr Sanchez has strongly supported Mr Rajoy and the PP line on supressing the independence attempt. Indeed he accused the new Catalonian Prime Minister (or President, depending on your politics), Quim Torra, of racism following some comments about Spaniards and Spain. Now his footwork has swiftly changed to reflect the support that his no-confidence vote garnered from Mr Torra and the Catalonian separatists. He has made a sort of working accord with Mr Torra, continuing Mr Rajoy’s recent agreement in principle to restore the powers of the Catalonian parliament. Mr Sanchez hopes that will be enough to quieten things down for a while, but Mr Torra has made it very clear that his party did not help vote Mr Sanchez into office in Madrid in return for keeping the status quo and that his next step is, once again, to full independence.
Mr Sanchez’s new cabinet suggests little urge to compromise with other political groups – most cabinet ministers are from PSOE, including as Foreign Minister the noted Catalan Josep Borrell. Noted indeed – as a strong opponent of Catalan separatism. Not a popular appointment, it can be said, with Mr Torra and his separatist coalition.
In fact, other than a greater emphasis on equality and women’s rights, there is not that much difference between the outgoing government and the incoming one. One potential problem is the Spanish economy, now in strong recovery after an extended recession, but still relatively fragile and with government spending under tight controls. The Left were hoping for some relaxation of austerity but Mr Sanchez says that he will not adjust the Rajoy budget for 2018 and will form a view on what can be done in 2019 at a later date.
There might be a good underlying reason on the part of the subtle Mr Sanchez for this – he is acutely aware that he is heading an unelected minority coalition. He is likely to resist the voices calling for early elections – whilst he will no doubt want to try to gain his own mandate as soon as sensibly possible, he is said to feel that it is important to deal with some of the more controversial outstanding issues (Catalonia, once more) before what could be a divisive election. It thus makes sense to avoid accusations of undemocratic conduct and stick fairly closely to the mandate of the previous administration, which was what the majority of the electorate voted for last time.
There are also two further problems which Mr Sanchez will no doubt be contemplating, even if they are not talked about much in public. The first is corruption, and the second the fractured nature of the left. Mr Rajoy was brought down by corruption within his People’s Party, but corruption is endemic in Spanish public life, with endless friendly back scratching and payments for favours. It has become so bad that it is almost normal, a ritual to which ordinary Spaniards are inured. Even in modern Spain cauterising it from the body politic will be a very major task, and one that requires a Prime Minister who is himself above reproach and with a government determined to act. That might just be Sanchez. But his other problem is easily understood by those accustomed to British politics. The left is heavily divided. If one sees Mr Sanchez as a sort of Tony Blair figure, then the other arm of his new coalition is Podemos, led by Pablo Iglesias, a sort of young Jeremy Corbyn. Podemos as a political party is new, founded only four years ago, to campaign against austerity and corruption. It has the second largest public membership in Spain (after the PP) and is the third largest party in the Cortes, with 69 seats. Just for now it has been wrong footed by Mr Sanchez’s swift actions, but no observer of Spanish politics expects Mr Iglesias to slow the momentum of his party’s success for long.
One further surprise from Mr Rajoy. Last Tuesday he announced that he would step down immediately as party leader, and retire from public life. Surprising, given that he remains popular within his own party, and with many Spanish voters who, whilst they were uncomfortable with his austerity budgets, have given him credit for the improving economy and are strongly behind his tough approach to Catalonian independence. Given Mr Sanchez’s likely problems in keeping his grip on power, Mr Rajoy might have contemplated an early return to office. Seemingly not so, and a struggle for power within the PP will now begin – which may result in a female party leader, and perhaps in due course, Spain’s first female prime minister. That really would be a sign that the Franco shadow has departed.
Mr Rajoy left the Cortes for the final time as Prime Minister loudly applauded (and not just by his own party). Mr Sanchez shook his hand, both men with somewhat rueful expressions – Mr Sanchez maybe reflecting his troubles are all before him and Mr Rajoy pondering his accelerated plans for retirement.
