15 February 2018
Lens on the Week
UK
PLASTICS: The Queen is banning single use plastics from the Royal Estates so that plastic straws will disappear from her palaces, as will plastic bottles. It is said that the inspiration came from her friendship with Sir David Attenborough but, however that be, the move is likely to have considerable effect. It will soon be deeply unfashionable to be seen near single use plastics and commercial firms will have to tailor their product lines accordingly. It is good to see Britain leading on something worthwhile, even if the Head of State has to do it personally.
PARDONS: It has been suggested that pardons be given to suffragettes, to commemorate 100 years since the Representation of the People Act 1918.
It is not clear what the purpose would be. All the suffragettes are dead and so do not care one way or the other. Some women were convicted of assault and of causing criminal damage; these offences were crimes then & are crimes now.
There have been other offences which are no longer offences now. It is not a crime to be a Roman Catholic or a Protestant but Elizabeth I and Mary Tudor (Bloody Mary) burnt Catholics and Protestants respectively. Why are the people they executed not given pardons? Women thought to be witches were executed/burnt in early times. It is no longer a crime to be a witch, so why not pardon all witches?
Still, the pardon for suffragettes (if it happens) will make people feel good about themselves and won’t do any harm.
SEX: The Harvey Weinstein scandal has amazing consequences. An art gallery in Manchester removed a picture from display because it had a classical theme which showed naked women in a lake. The explanation was that it was inappropriate to show this kind of picture in the light of Hollywood’s “TimesUp” and “MeToo” movements. There was an uproar and sanity prevailed: the picture was reinstated.
Another example of madness taking over was revealed in a report in the “Times” about two councils, one in the East Riding of Yorkshire and the other in Stockport, which had instructed “lollipop” men not to “high five” children because it could be construed as a form of grooming. One of the “lollipop” men, from the East Riding, has done the job for 20 years and has, in the past, received an Unsung Hero award. He has resigned.
Meanwhile the abuse acandal has now spread to the charitable sector. What a surprise.
INTERNATIONAL
MAÑANA/DEMÀ; The Catalan crisis rumbles on. The newly elected Catalan assembly has nominated exiled leader Carles Puigdemont as the next president of the region. But Mr Puigdemont won’t return to Spain because of the criminal charges against him. So a remote appearance from Brussels (e.g. by video-link) was prepared for his investiture in Barcelona. But Spain’s constitutional court ruled that a regional president has to be physically present by law. So Mr Puigdemont’s investiture was postponed at the last minute. But Mr Puigdemont says he will change the law, to allow him to govern from Brussels. So the Spanish government says it will use the courts to stop him changing the law… And so it rumbles on, from day to day, to tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow, a tale full of sound and fury, signifying..?
GERMANY: Chancellor Angela Merkel and Martin Schultz have finally reached an agreement for an alliance between their two parties (the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party) to form a coalition government, after difficult and protracted negotiations following last year’s inconclusive election. The Chancellor is being criticised by her supporters, however, for giving too much away; nine out of the fifteen cabinet posts will go to the SDU, and the appointment of the SDU’s Olaf Scholtz as finance minister is particularly unpopular (the two parties’ financial policies are virtually incompatible). Leader of the SDU Martin Schultz has also been criticised by his party for agreeing a coalition with the CDU. Neither Mrs Merkel nor Mr Schultz are expected to survive politically; indeed, Mr Schultz is expected to stand down this week. A government won’t be formed until the membership of both parties has voted to accept it. In the meantime, opinion polls are showing that the CDU and the SPD are losing popularity in the country at large.
AIR TRAGEDY: It’s been a bad week for air travel. A Russian passenger jet crashed a few minutes after take-off on a flight from Moscow to Orsk; all 71 people on board were killed. A helicopter carrying British tourists crashed in the Grand Canyon; three of the passengers were killed, the pilot and the three other passengers survived but were taken to hospital in Las Vegas with injuries. London City airport was shut down, flights cancelled and nearby homes evacuated when an unexploded World War II bomb, 1.5 meters long, was found in the Thames beside the airport; the bomb was excavated from the silt and taken further down-river for a controlled under-water detonation. Yemelyanovo airport in Siberia was closed down for the arrival of President Putin on a visit to the region; unfortunate passengers who had already boarded their plane had to wait for two hours in temperatures of minus 16C with the door open (and the blinds pulled down on one side of the plane – presumably to screen off the President’s arrival) before the airport was re-opened.
FINANCIAL
COMING OFF THE RAILS: Trouble on the trains and buses at Transport for London, which runs the capital city’s public transport networks. Earnings are falling and costs are going up, which is never good news in the private sector, though it can become a theme in state owned businesses. TfL does not make “profits” or “losses”, just operational “surpluses” or “deficits”. Surpluses are few and far between but the deficits have being getting into a pattern in recent years – they get bigger and bigger. In 2012/13 the deficit was £171m; in 2016/17 £458m; and TfL says that will be a bigger loss (sorry, operational deficit) in 2017/18, and project a worsening to nearly £1bn in 2019/20. Some of that is the gradual phasing out of a central government grant assistance programme (which is of course a deficit too, but under another name) but some relates to high operating costs – especially in staff remuneration and refurbishment works, and to falling revenues. London Mayor Sadiq Khan introduced a fare freeze when elected in 2016, but in spite of that the numbers of people using public transport has fallen, bringing predicted revenue for the current year down by as much as £800m.
Mr Khan had hoped that revenues would go the other way to create a surplus by 2021, but that would require revenues to increase by getting on for a third from today’s levels. It does not need an accountant to see that TfL is heading for trouble on present trends, and it is now starting to axe expansion plans, delay refurbishments, and generally cut costs – not easy given TfL’s assumption of extra costs in running some above ground railway lines, and the powerful unions active among transport staff. Expect thinner train and bus services, especially at off-peak times, and perhaps an end to the fare freeze.
BAD FOR PLUMBERS: The price of copper is as fascinating to many traders as the price of oil. Admittedly the immediate effect on cost of filling the automobile tank (or worse, the central heating tank) is not so dramatic, but copper is also a vital component of making the modern world work. It is not just your friendly plumber that needs lots of the stuff, so do many electrical manufacturers to make connectors and wires – there is still no effective alternative halfway as good. Copper saw a major decline in price about three years ago, the result of the tail end of a slow period in manufacturing and increasing supply as many copper miners tried to keep revenues up by churning out more and more. Many marginal mines closed, others were sold to better capitalised purchasers. Down went supply; nex,t up went prices – US$7,100 per tonne today. That may go on for quite a while yet – whilst there is no shortage of copper in the ground it is getting harder to extract as the easier mines are worked out. Supply is actually continuing to fall, whilst electro-technology uses more and more of the stuff. There are about 700 copper mines in the world, but more than 50% of current production is from just twenty mines – and some of those are in politically difficult areas. Biggest supplier is Chile which has had a series of strikes and union enforced closures whilst previous wage reductions are fought – the unions read production surveys and can see their current bargaining power. That can lead to a continuing drag on output – and keep the price up. Also likely to force prices further on upwards is nervousness of mining investors in spending on new mines and technology until they can be sure that prices are not going to crash again.
