21 March 2019
Go Joe Go
Early runners.
by J R Thomas
In politics, there is nothing like name recognition. Probably in the mad world of British politics it would not be a good idea to be a Thatcher running for the Labour Party – and certainly not a Blair. But Kinnock seems to still open doors, and young Mr Corbyn’s career is progressing nicely. On the other side Soames sells well, and even Cecil, though the Commons is currently going through one of those rare times in the last four hundred years where the chamber is unadorned by a descendant of the first Elizabeth’s great minister.
But the USA, a country founded on no hereditary privilege and the honest sweat of the self-made… Well, it’s just the same. A famous name seems to be a useful political passport, from Brown in California to Kennedy in Massachusetts, from Bush in the far north to …er… Bush in the far south, and indeed even Bush in the far West. Clinton will get the populace talking about you indeed, and no doubt if either of the Ms Obama’s, or indeed Mrs Obama, wanted to chuck a hat in the ring they would get an instant head start. Joe Biden is not actually named Obama, but proximity seems to do it just as well. In polls in Idaho, Barrack’s ex veep Joe is head of the Democrat list for the nomination for 2020, with 27% of voters saying they would vote for him if the primary were held that day; closely followed by Bernie Sanders on 25%. Mr Biden must be delighted by that result, if perhaps a little surprised – he has not yet announced that he intends to run.
Mrs Clinton did not figure in the results of the opinion poll, presumably because of her recent announcement that she will not be running in 2020, not altogether surprisingly perhaps, but nevertheless a loss to political commentary. Though maybe not entirely a loss, it seems likely that Hillary’s heart is too emmeshed in politics to just take up gardening and dog walking. She still has a formidable organisation, and money, from her previous political life, and the lady is, if not universally popular, very well connected. So the dozen and more candidates vying for the Democratic nomination might be anxious to get a good word from The Lady Who Never Was. (President, we mean.)
One who won’t be looking for the Clinton endorsement and indeed would be alarmed to get one is of course Bernie. The sage of Vermont is cordially, actually not at all cordially, disliked by Mrs Clinton and her team who are still furious by how close Sanders got to denying her the nomination and indeed blame him for costing her the Presidency. No matter that the gentleman from Vermont conceded gracefully when the time came, supported her elegantly, and campaigned enthusiastically, Sanders is a bad word in the Clinton world and there is already some needling against his 2020 campaign. Last week he was attacked by green activists for his hypocrisy – using private charter aircraft to get him and his support team around the hustings. Bernie has the energy of a man thirty years younger and as in 2016 is rushing around the US as if determined to meet every voter in person. This would be impossible to do at the level of efficiency a modern campaign demands without private transport – but “commentators” say Senator Sanders is rather too fond of private jets. And forgets his green leanings as he bounds up the steps to the big leather seats. Unlike Hillary, who always flew economy. No, ‘tis true, she didn’t (security, you know, and she needed privacy and space to work on the flight), but the knives are out for the Bern.
But who will endorse who; and when? Hillary did not have much time for Joe either, but an old machine politician might decide they need all the support that is going – and another old machine politician might work out that if Joe wins, she might get a job out of it. If she wants one. There is both Joe’s strength and weakness. He is an old fashioned Democrat who came up through the ranks, making friends and procuring a few future favours. He is also probably the only one who does understand the old working class blue collar rustbelt heart of the party. But does that heart even tick any more? For here is Joe’s weakness – his loyalist base has mostly defected to a flashy New York billionaire, and so far has stayed remarkably loyal to the Donald. The Democrat Party now is green, socialistic, highly politically correct, of the middle class and the intelligentsia. It has changed the brand in this strange way without anybody consciously deciding to do it. It has become more California than Michigan without even getting on to an aeroplane. And it’s not at all clear that such a party can work as a coalition between car workers and social workers, actors and garbage truck drivers, academics and train engineers. They may not like the Republicans, the rich and old fashioned, but there is a great danger they will dislike their fellow party members even more. If the GOP of President Trump can keep them apart, and if his Republican supporters can somehow take the Trump legacy, as it will one day be, (if it is positive), and carve a new Republican party out of it, they may keep their hegemony for a long time yet.
There is a lot of change going on in the social and political positions of the USA, too much to set out here, but one very significant factor is in the growth in number of those citizens who describe themselves as “Hispanic”. That trend partially led Jeb Bush to hope he might win the nomination and the Presidency – not the Bush name so much as his fluent Spanish, Hispanic wife, and closeness to the Florida Hispanic community. Some hope you might say, with the surname Bush, but last week came another hopeful for the latino vote, throwing his hat into the ring for the Democrat nomination. A ten gallon hat this time, to join the mass of Democrat hats. Beto O’Rourke is the contender and if you think (a) that is not a very Hispanic name, and (b) you have heard it before, you are right on both counts. Mr O’Rourke was beaten by Ted Cruz (who actually is of latin heritage) for the Texan senate seat last year, and is of Irish descent. But as Elizabeth Warren might tell you, it is what you feel you are that matters. Beto is hip, good looking, youngish (46), and an ex punk rocker. Don’t rule him out too quickly. Though the smart money is likely to stay on Joe Biden for a while yet.
And finally; as they used to say on ITV News broadcasts before amusing the viewers with some cat-up-tree story. The Independent, a British newspaper, now with its very own political party, which might give it eleven readers, said last week, apropos of nothing in particular, that if President Trump loses the 2020 election and if he refuses to step down, he will have to be removed by force. That is rather a lot of “ifs”, you may think – such as if Mr T runs in the next election for a start – but let’s wait and read about it in the Independent – IF it still exists then.
