19 September 2019
Downs and Ups
In the Paddock
by J.R. Thomas
If Mr Trump is not the Devil – and the Guardian, BBC, New York Times, and Washington Post all assure us he is – then he certainly has the devil’s luck. Fourteen months to election day and it’s all going pretty well, so far. The economy is doing alright; his foreign policy strategies are looking good; and his core supporters are staying loyal. That might get him through the next few months and back into the Oval Office. What would also help is confusion amongst his opponents and… confusion there is!
But let us begin with the economy. Voters famously speak with their hearts, but have a tendency to vote with their pocket books (wallets to Brits). It’s a trite adage, but like all good adages it’s nearly always true. The economy has done Donald very well, partly due to (let’s hear it for him) Barrack Obama who, whilst he did not do much, did what politicians can usefully do to when it comes to intervening in the public finances – not much. There was a natural recovery after the slump of 2008 and President Obama just let it happen. But President Trump also made a useful contribution – he cut taxes and gave the economy a good kick. That has helped earnings and wealth creation in a significant way. But as we all know, though politicians like to selectively forget, there is a natural roller coaster to economic matters. It booms, it recessions; or slumps, if the Treasury mess up. Then it recovers and booms; and so the merry dance goes on. What is due next, not just in the US but also in the world, is a recession. Maybe a slump.
Mr Trump is not a man for the detail, but he certainly looks at big pictures, and this one is clear. He has for some time urged the Fed to start cutting interest rates, to cut costs for American business, and also to try to force investors out of safe-haven investment strategies and into backing American business. The Fed have finally come round to this (you might have the most minor suspicion that they would have done so before if the president hadn’t pushed for it). The rumour is – you should know if the Shaw Sheet listens to the right rumours by the time you read this – rates will be cut by 0.25%, to 2%, this week. Not enough, Donald will say. To which the Fed will mutter (under its breath), “True, especially if you keep up the trade war with China”. But that little cut, and perhaps one or two more, might just keep the economy in growth mode until, say, 4th November 2020. Then whatever comes, comes. The new President will sort what happens after that.
We won’t pause much on the foreign policy, that’s my colleague Mr Tidmarsh’s fiefdom, other than to say that Mr Trump spends more time on it than you might expect, for a man putting America First. Enough to keep falling over John Bolton in the corridors of the White House certainly, and as Mr Bolton seemed always to be going the other way, he got fired (or resigned; youse read’s the press statements and youse takes your choice). His moustache will be missed. Donald understands that the electorate prefers jaw-jaw to war-war, and whilst the big stick is visibly by the desk, he mostly speaks softly. To the disappointment of the Democrats, who thought they had lifetime rights on the peace-broking role.
And the Trump supporters club? It holds remarkably steady. The President’s polling results are pretty much the same as when he was elected, varying between 38% and 46% of electors who would back him against his strongest Democrat contender. It’s not great polling, but it is consistent, and the Republicans think it is a good enough base to win from. Except one Republican, that is. Bill Weld announced he would run for the Republican nomination in February, though if he’s running he is keeping his running shorts dry so far. John Kasich, the other possible entrant in the Loser Stakes, couldn’t find his running shorts and has retired from the struggle. Up to you now, Bill.
So, you eagerly cry, who is Donald’s strongest contender? Blast of trumpets… Why, it’s good old Joe Biden. Step forward Joe. No sir, this way. That’s it, mind the sofa…oh whoops. Cruel, but Joe does seem a bit forgetful, or maybe just badly briefed. His fellow candidates are being entirely supportive and understanding, of course. Not. But Joe is still getting in the mid thirties percent in the polls, Bernie Sanders in the low twenties, and coming up fast, a slight surprise, Elizabeth Warren – yes Pocahontas herself (so unkind, Donald, and we’ll drop it) who is polling on around 16%. Dropping back is Kamala Harris, not least following her gaffe last week when she agreed with a questioner who compared the President to the mentally retarded; and then denied she’d agreed. Alas, she had been caught on video. Note to Kamala: it’s not the bad thing that destroys you, it’s the attempted cover-up after. That slip was not career destroying, but it’s not helpful either. What might encourage her is that supporters of all three of the leading candidates nominated Kamala as their third choice, after naming one of the other three as their second. It’s not much encouragement, but candidates have come through from less. Last time we looked at the Democrat pack we tipped Kamala and squashed Ms Warren. Having seen what we’ve done to them, we maybe better not do any more tipping.
The former 24 runners are now down to 18, and so far as the media are concerned – with the primaries still five months off – 10; the televised debates will only feature the leading ten. These are now called “round tables”, though King Arthur would no doubt point out that the idea of the Camelot round table was that people became friends, not tried to kill each other.
Farewell, we suspect, to Tom Steyer, who scores in recent polls an unenviable record – 43% of Democrat voters have never heard of him. Maybe next time, Tom, and look it at this way, you got a mention in the Shaw Sheet, which is more than some of your rivals did.
Farewell soon also to a lot of others; it looks as though campaign financing, if nothing else, will narrow the list to five: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, and Booker. The problem the latter four have is that they are all preaching basically the same sermon; and appealing thus to the same voters. They are the ones that backed Hillary Clinton last time and it is worth pointing out that in terms of the popular vote Clinton scored more votes than Trump. It was the Electoral College that piled those state votes into different bundles, turning her marginal victory into a marginal loss. So it is not to say that a Hillary type coalition of middle class liberals, young socialists, and minority groups couldn’t carry it off this time. But it’s a big risk; especially with Donald much more experienced and the Republicans probably more inclined to turn out than they were last time. Biden remains the Democrat with broadest appeal, the most popular on the doorsteps, the most… what’s the word. Electable. But here’s the cold shower; in a couple of weeks, we’ll suggest that it probably won’t be him. Sorry, Joe.
