24 January 2019
Corbyn is Coming
The pendulum swings.
By J R Thomas
Politicians and those who write about them seem to have a strange fascination with “Game of Thrones”. All that back stabbing and nastiness, naked girls and rampaging dragons, seem to have an irresistible allure. Now the significant line of the series, “winter is coming” is on every politician’s lips. It started with a nervous aide to President Trump, urging his boss to prepare for the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives, chillingly briefing “winter is coming” (Trump apparently does not watch GoT and missed the significance of the allusion, or just thought it was yet another climate changer banging on). Now Michael Gove has intoned the same message in sepulchral tones as the House of Commons collapses into viciously warring tribalism. Mr Gove apparently is a fan of the long running series, and has learned a thing or two about killing off your enemies whilst watching it; we understand his journalist wife, Sarah Vine, watches with him, notebook and very sharp pencil in hand.
Winter may or may not soon arrive, though given the typical British political capacity for last minute fudge and compromise it may turn out to be only a mild frost, but the more historically inclined political observer may be increasingly convinced of another arrival. Yes, Corbyn is coming; we are entering the age of Jeremy. That is not because of the Labour leaders’ startling political talents (let us know of some on a postcard please) or his cult-like following among music festival goers (not what it was, it has to be said), but simply because there are tides in politics, and we are due for a new ebb – or flow, depending on your political views – about now. Indeed, the undertow has been building for some time; the chanting of Jezza’s name by middle class music fans in stately parks across the country was evidence of that. The evidence of ebb on the other benches is only too obvious; it is a bold admission to confess to being a Tory at the moment, and an admission immediately leading into breathless explanations.
The most convincing excuse for remaining a publicly avowed Tory, the only one which, let’s face it, makes any sense, is to decry the loony left nature of Corbyn Labour, and the utter incompetence of Mr C and his closest. Even so, the enthusiasm for the traditional Conservative voter or party member for their cause, and their alarm at the confusion and chaos of their party leaders, is moving them to what must be an all-time low point. If an election comes soon, as it could, the party is short of money, its membership is apparently at record lows, and enthusiasm among party volunteers has never been more moribund.
The Labour party on the other hand has a mass membership which is believed to be three times higher than that of the Tories, and its members are younger and more energetic than those rare blue volunteers on the other side of the street. It is votes that count of course, not the number of persons prepared to turn up at party rallies or to annoy householders by endless shoving of leaflets through suburban doors, but even so, in marginal seats, that ability to get the voters out makes the difference. Mr C’s apostles may not be quite as keen or as plentiful as they were two years ago, but they still can cover a lot more ground than unhappy and mostly ageing Tories.
But that is to focus on the negative. There are other reasons why the left is on the rise. Long term trends in politics can be compared to variations in the orbit of the moon, or the tectonic movements of the earth’s crust. Politics and social trends, like so many things, run in fashions. Sometimes it is all about trusting the people, lessening the burden of government, letting the public make its own decisions and spend its own money on what it fancies. At other times, there is an urge not just among the leader class to do some ruling, but among the citizenry to be more rigidly ruled. We must be prevented, with vigour, from doing things which are or might be bad for us, our charitable impulses will be both better channelled and more generously if the government does the giving and helping on our behalf, the government will decide what to teach our children and how to invest our savings and even the size of our bedrooms in our newbuild dream house. (We are carefully not mentioning any Euro matters here to keep our readers’ blood pressures under control.)
These alternating approaches have been a feature of our political system since at least the Glorious Revolution, and tend to run in forty or fifty year cycles. After the Second World War it was all about central and tight controls, allocation of income to government determined objectives, and social planning. Churchill may have lit a match to make a bonfire of controls, but the fire did not blaze until Mrs T took office in 1979. That was forty years ago, and since then both Conservative and Labour administrations have paid at least lip service to letting the people run free. Until recently.
Not so much anymore. The man and woman in Whitehall is preparing to do a lot more interfering; and that nicely meshes with Mr Corbyn’s strongly socialist urges to direct everything that he and his colleagues can get their hands on. Not that Mrs May and many of her colleagues wish to be left out of this rush to help the public do what it ought to be doing. More and more directives and rules and orders pour out of Whitehall, taxation is likely to be going up rather than down, and ministers ordain our every way, from the grandeur of the Treasury (the Chancellor assuring mega corporate Britain that the Brexiteers will be contained and frustrated) to Mr Gove threatening to put out our home fires (ironic from a man who is so certain winter is coming).
And though the public may mutter and grumble, there is a mood about that they must do more, that they are letting things slip. Whoever they are. Elderly motorists should have their driving licenses cancelled, the health service should be given limitless funding, businesses should not be allowed to sack folks, the rich should pay a fairer rate of tax. That latter, for our more innocent readers, does not mean less. The mood is for more government because whoever they are, they work in or around or for Whitehall.
All this means that the world is going Mr Corbyn’s way. It might not actually be him that steps from the Prime Ministerial limo in the next couple of years; Brexit or Northern Ireland or an ambitious colleague – did we mention you Mr McDonnell – may do for his final glory, but the battleground is sloping in Labour’s favour, and lefty Labour at that. Perhaps the greatest reproach that can be made of Mrs May is that not only does she let her opponents seize control of the agenda, she seems to have no philosophy and to be incapable of forming even a sketch of alternative ideas. In that default the left will have a victory even easier than the times might seem to determine. Order the deluxe box set or download Game of Thrones if you have not already done so; it may be a vital guide to how to live in the next few decades.
