21 July 2016
The Case for Experts
Why we need to listen to those with knowledge
by Lynda Goetz
When so much is happening in both the UK and the wider world and events are moving so dizzyingly fast that the whole thing sometimes seems like a giant surrealistic blur, it can be hard to identify the important facts on which to focus. Opinions and speculations are rife. Who might succeed Cameron? Will the parliamentary Labour party succeed in toppling the populist Corbyn? How did things get to this point? Why did they get to this point? The Brexit vote, and the massive and immediate fallout from it, held us spellbound for almost three full weeks before our attention was once again drawn back to France, where yet another terrorist atrocity was committed on the French National Day, July 14th, Bastille Day. As we were still digesting the implications of that, we heard Turkey was involved in a military coup to remove the democratically elected but increasingly autocratic President Erdogan. What would that have meant had it succeeded? It didn’t, so we are now finding out the consequences of its failure: a clampdown by Erdogan on all his old enemies, on anyone essentially he has suspected of not being fully committed to his brand of democracy. More speculation. Was it in fact a coup he allowed to go ahead to ensure he ensnared his opponents? Will he bring back the death penalty? What will that mean for Turkey’s entry to the EU? And so on.
In a series of Points of View on Radio 4, A L Kennedy ponders a number of issues, including Englishness, Belongings, and her latest, Facts and Opinions, on the importance of facts in a world of opinions (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07k0m80). This latter struck me as peculiarly relevant subject at a time when everyone feels that their opinion is as good as the next person’s, even when it may be based on nothing other than a ‘feeling’ or simple prejudice. Michael Gove M.P, for Vote Leave, fed-up with Remain’s claims to all the experts to back up their arguments for staying in the EU, famously declared “I think people in this country have had enough of experts”. Labour M.P Gisela Stuart, also for Vote Leave, rapidly came to his support; “There is only one expert that matters” she declared, “and that is you, the voter”.
Whilst the idea that we are all experts when it comes to expressing our opinions is very appealing, it is of course total nonsense. I know the frustration of vets, doctors, lawyers and others who have spent years studying, learning and deepening their knowledge of their subjects only to be told by clients that ‘I’ve looked it up on Google and…’ So, if we can all look it up on Google, we clearly don’t need any of these professionals at all, then? Facts, as never before, are literally at our fingertips. Need to know how to build a wall, make a boat, repair a boiler, identify an illness, design a garden? Then let your mouse do the searching. The information, the facts are there and never easier to find. No need for time-consuming trips to the library; no need to own vast numbers of books or encyclopaedias which are out of date before they have even been published; just use your laptop, your tablet or even your phone. Need to know population statistics or GDP of a country? There is probably an App you can download. So, in some ways, we can all be instant experts.
The problem perhaps lies in that old adage, ‘A little learning is a dangerous thing’ (often misquoted as ‘a little knowledge is a dangerous thing’) from Alexander Pope’s Essay on Criticism. I am not claiming to have read the whole essay, written in iambic pentameter, but the view expressed, I think, remains valid. It is wonderful that the Web gives us access to so many facts and so much information. If the accessibility of information makes ignorance a thing of the past then we are indeed making progress. Unfortunately we do not all progress at the same pace. We still need to learn how to use that information and we still need the experts who have familiarity with particular sets of facts and are skilled in interpreting them.
Michael Deacon, the parliamentary sketch writer in The Telegraph, made fun of Michael Gove’s statement (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/10/michael-goves-guide-to-britains-greatest-enemy-the-experts/) and used some specious logic to argue that of course ‘almost every plane that has ever crashed was being flown by a qualified pilot’ so logically ‘we would be far safer if flown by people who have never sat in a cockpit before’. A L Kennedy points out that an avoidance of facts was the reason the 7 people in the Challenger space shuttle died in 1986. Information was available which showed that the O rings would not perform at low temperatures. Original analysis by engineers put the risk of catastrophic failure at 1 in 200; NASA management manipulated those figures and adjusted the risks to 1 in 100,000. It is, amongst other things, this manipulation of facts which has perhaps led the general populace to mistrust the ‘experts’ and their pronouncements. However, it is a rather sobering thought that the former legions of Civil Service experts are now so reduced that we do not have enough skilled negotiators to deal with the trade talks which will be necessary as a result of Brexit.
Unfortunately, in spite of the importance of facts in every aspect of life, it is also a reality that many people will not change their opinions when faced with facts. Peter Ellerton, a lecturer in Critical Thinking at the University of Queensland, discusses this subject, with particular reference to climate change, in his May 2014 article in The Conversation (http://theconversation.com/why-facts-alone-dont-change-minds-in-our-big-public-debates-25094). Some individuals are not only unprepared to change their views when faced with facts which work against their point of view, but can even come to hold their original views more strongly, according to more than one American study (http://bigthink.com/think-tank/the-backfire-effect-why-facts-dont-win-argumentshttp://news.bitofnews.com/people-unlikly-to-change-opinions/). As I am not an expert in this field I think I will refrain from giving any further opinions on this topic. However, I will continue to endeavour to listen to the facts, before forming my opinions. Not easy of course for one as opinionated as I am.
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