23 June 2016
Nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue
by J.R.Thomas
Late June 2016. It’s a hot night in Washington DC. The politicians were up late, their conversations frenzied and urgent and more than a little alcohol fuelled, but finally everybody got to bed. But now it is 4.30am, that dangerous hour before dawn. And the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan has woken sweating and troubled, his mind trying to grasp reality, his eyes darting round the room. He does not know it yet, but many of his fellow senior Republicans have woken roughly too. Across Washington, and across the United States of America, they have all awoken from the same appalling nightmare. They caved in and endorsed the Presidential candidate none of them wanted. And now he is sinking fast in the polls, whilst Hillary Clinton rises steadily across the land. Only one Republican is sleeping soundly; Donald Trump is dreaming of cheering crowds and snoring graciously at the thought.
It’s not a nightmare; this is turning into reality. Hillary has seen off Bernie who is sulking a little, but generally is just manoeuvring for a little leftish philosophical advantage, some input into the Democrat policy statements, maybe a couple of appointments for Sanders supporters in Hillary’s inner and outer cabinets. She can promise all this; if she wins in November any promises will be temporary wind anchors that she can throw overboard within months of taking office. Her current focus is on appointing a Vice-Presidential running mate. Traditionally this was a way of balancing the ticket – the young establishment east coaster JFK appointed the rough old Texan LBJ; the outsider Californian Reagan, the Washington insider George Bush; the smooth Chicago machine politico Barrack Obama, the blue collar Joe Biden. So Mrs Clinton ought to be choosing a younger male from the West Coast, or the South West. But the latest suggestion rumoured from the Clinton camp is as far from that as you can get – Elizabeth Warren, a former Harvard academic, and a former Republican.
Ms Warren is one suggestion among many others and has not said if she would even be interested, but the fact that her name is coming out of the Clinton camp is very revealing: revealing of the Clinton methodology, which is to let names be rumoured and see what the reaction might be, but also of a possble move to balance the presidential slate in a more subtle way than is traditional. Ms Warren is more academic than Mrs C, more conservative, an outsider to politics (though knowing her way around the political establishment well). Why might she be a vice-presidential contender? Because of those very factors. She assures the rightest heart of the Democrat Party as to the stability and establishment roots of a Clinton presidency, but enables Hillary to move out to the left in this autumn’s campaign to draw in the Sanders voters. Well, that’s the theory, though many have said that that what drives the Sanders loyalists is an urge to upset the establishment hay-wagon, an urge that is more likely to make them vote for The Donald than to meekly fall in behind the Clinton machine. But what Mrs Clinton is now about is building a coalition to propel her up Pennsylvania Avenue, and she knows that there is no point trying to capture Trump leaning voters -whatever they might do, they are not going to switch to a mainstream Democrat candidate.
The truth is that there is not much ideological difference between core Democrat ideology and that of the Republican Party. That is why the GOP leadership seriously pondered before endorsing Trump – and quite a number have still refused to do so, most notably the Bush family. There are a significant number of Republicans who, though they may not like Hillary personally, would not find it too distressing to have a Clinton back in the White House; certainly, preferable to Mr Trump.
On current form that may be what is going to happen. The high-point of The Donald’s popularity seems to have been the day he scored enough delegates to ensure that he had a clear majority at the Cleveland convention in July. At that time he was ahead of Mrs Clinton in polls for voting intentions in November, and, the lambasting of Mexican heritage judges aside, seemed to be calming down, minding his words, becoming more inclusive. But, since then, his figures have started to fall; maybe the reality of the likely volatility and unpredictability of a Trump presidency started to sink in; maybe Mrs Clinton’s new found calm and self-assurance now that she has vanquished Bernie is starting to appeal; maybe the absurd Mexican farrago hurt Trump more than it seemed amongst moderate voters. Whatever. Down his support has gone, accelerating with his poor handling of the appalling massacre in the Orlando nightclub. There are times when you should either keep quiet or go with the public mood. Experienced politicians know that; Trump seriously mis-stepped here.
Hence those angst ridden nights for GOP bigwigs. If the guy is such a loser, if as candidate he will so damage the Republican Party – losing them the long domination of the Senate and the House which has enabled them to hold off most of President Obama’s intended reforms, if he is not a Republican in philosophy or reality but an interventionist, a fiddler without a discernible tune, then perhaps the party should skip trying to win this election?
It could be done; the party’s men in grey suits (there are, it should be said, a growing number of women in high places in the GOP and most of them dislike Trump even more than the men in high places, and are possibly more ruthless) could attempt a coup at the convention. This would be a very unpleasant proceeding indeed; there would be warfare on the convention floor and it is very doubtful whether the establishment could win by fair means because most of the Trump delegates will not be for turning (though some may be starting to have doubts). The party could refuse to support The Donald financially or organisationally and, as we have discussed here before, it is doubtful if Donald would dip in his pocket – indeed campaign financials released this week suggest there is very little money in the Trump campaign coffers. The Trump vote winning machine relied on free publicity and a very thin organisation indeed – which has got thinner since Donald won the nomination. This week it got thinner still. Mr Trump fired Corey Lewandowski, his closest aide, and the one who has masterminded the Trump campaign so far. That might mean Donald is about to move to the next phase of his campaign, already urged upon him, by starting to look and sound “presidential”. But he needs to secure rapid and far reaching changes in his campaign team to do that, and to rock the boat at this stage, six weeks before the convention, would be pretty odd.
The party could encourage an independent to run and give tacit and even open support. The Bush family, and other party notables might support this; it would split the vote but if the objective is to Stop The Trump, and Save The Party, then it might be a price worth paying.
If all this sounds both wacky and vague you are right; we are in uncharted waters here – deep waters at that – and nobody quite knows what is wanted or how to get there. The ideal Republican dream would be that Donald decides he needs to spend more time with his money and, having made his point about listening to the people, steps down. Unlikely, you say. So, try this; Mr Trump gets a grip on himself and starts to behave – not like a regular Republican, but at least a serious and ambitious statesman. He just might. Paul Ryan and his friends may yet get to sleep sound at night. But the best guess is that it is Mrs Clinton who will enjoy the sweeter dreams for a while yet.
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