24 March 2016
Exit From Syria, Exit From Yemen
Saudi Arabia and Russia look at each other in the mirror of the Middle East’s conflicts.
by Neil Tidmarsh
Last week, Russia announced its military withdrawal from Syria; this week, Saudi Arabia announced its military withdrawal from Yemen. A curious coincidence, given that the conflict in Syria and the conflict in Yemen are mirror images of each other.
Syria and Yemen are both arenas for proxy war between Saudi Arabia (the West’s ally) and Iran (Russia’s ally). In the Syrian conflict, Russia and Iran are backing a Shia regime against largely Sunni opposition rebels backed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states; in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are backing a Sunni regime against Shia rebels apparently backed by Iran. Russian airstrikes have pounded rebel-held areas in Syria; Saudi airstrikes have pounded rebel-held areas in Yemen. Both have taken a terrible toll on civilians.
Saudi involvement in Yemen began in January last year when Houthi rebels seized Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, and President Hadi fled to exile in Saudi Arabia. Since then, a coalition of Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia has been trying to reinstate President Hadi and drive the rebels out. Their efforts have involved heavy airstrikes and bombardments since last March, and as many as 10,000 troops fighting on the ground since last August.
The conflict has ruined the country and plunged it into a humanitarian crisis. 6000 civilians have been killed. International criticism of the Gulf coalition’s involvement has been growing. Saudi airstrikes have hit schools, hospitals, marketplaces and innocent festivities such as wedding parties. The UN reported that such attacks had been responsible for 1700 of the 2600 civilian deaths up to last October. The announcement of Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal came hot on the heels of a coalition air attack last Tuesday on a market north of Sanaa, in Houthi-controlled Hajja province, in which 106 civilians (24 of them children) were killed; anticipation of international outrage may well have been a factor in the decision to make the announcement.
Other factors aren’t hard to find. The USA, the UK and other western allies have become increasingly uneasy, and increasingly criticised, because it is their materiel, which they have manufactured and sold to the Gulf states, which is ruining Yemen. No doubt they have been exerting what pressure they can on those states. The UN high commissioner for human rights has said that the coalition is being investigated for international crimes – his representatives have visited the site of last Tuesday’s tragedy. And the military intervention has made little headway despite those massive bombardments and last August’s ground invasion; the capital Sanaa is still held by the Houthis, and the alternative capital for President Hadi, Aden, is in a state of anarchy. Isis and al-Qaeda are moving in elsewhere in the country and making territorial gains out of the chaos.
But the most obvious factor must be the financial cost of the war. Saudi Arabia is reportedly spending as much as £172 million a week on the war. That is not a sustainable expense for a country dependent on oil-production, with the recent collapse in oil prices. Saudi Arabia has a budget deficit of £70 billion. It has already begun to cut its domestic budgets, and last week financial sources reported that it is looking for a five year loan of between $6 billion and $8 billion, so hard has it been hit by the drop in oil prices and the cost of armed conflict in the Yemen and Syria.
Last week, it was suggested that similar financial considerations were a factor in the Kremlin’s decision to wind down its military involvement in the Syrian conflict. It was also suggested that another factor might have been the possibility of a détente with Saudi Arabia. Russia and Saudi Arabia would have much to gain by ending their face-off in the Middle East; they are both oil-producing countries, almost entirely dependent on the black stuff, and could do much to halt the plunge in prices by co-operating over oil-production levels. Perhaps it wasn’t a coincidence that the Saudi announcement about its disengagement in Yemen followed so soon after Russia’s announcement about its disengagement in Syria. Perhaps Russia and Saudi Arabia looked across no man’s land, in the mirrors of the Middle East’s conflicts, and saw each other’s image reflected back at them in the looking-glass. Perhaps this week’s announcement is the result of diplomatic manoeuvres behind the scenes.
Whatever might or might not be behind these two announcements, they are certainly good news for the possibility of peace in the region (though it is hard to give either party credit for peace-making – as Philip Hammond said last week, praising Russia for withdrawing from Syria is like praising a man who stops beating his wife).
Of course, it remains to be seen how partial or complete either withdrawal will be. Saudi military officials have said that “only small units of troops will stay behind to equip, train and advise Yemeni forces”, but that Saudi “remains committed to continuing to support the Yemeni army with our air forces”. This week, Putin warned that Russia could return its armed forces to Syria in a matter of hours if necessary.
It will be interesting to watch the mirror-reflected manoeuvres of these two powers in the weeks to come.
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