27 January 2021
Home, Joe
by J.R. Thomas
Dear Old Joe is back in the place he knows best, the White House. And after eight years working with Mr Obama but having to put up with the second best desk, finally the Oval Office is all his and it really is home at last. The First Lady is there, the presidential grandchildren will be running along the corridors, and the First Dogs have obviously hired a really first class PR agency, as they seem to be getting more publicity than the President.
It’s a bit soon to be offering any sort of critique – he’s only had a week so far – but if pressed, we would cautiously say, not bad. His inauguration speech went well, and certainly poured much oil on those Trump heated waters, with references to American values, a long democratic and tolerant history, the obligatory nod to President Lincoln and his healing of the nation, and the need for unity and peace. It might have been a bit unoriginal, a collection of sound bites and platitudes, but it is the sort of stuff that is and indeed should be said at the opening of a presidential innings. And Mr Biden’s delivery was right for our times as well; not the polish and pzazz of a Kennedy or a Clinton, or the over gun-powdered fireworks of a Trump, but the calm speaking of an unimaginative but decent man who finally made it, and who somehow has to heal his country.
Behind him though, was the sound of trouble brewing – not Vice-President Harris who has kept quiet so far, to the extent that we really have few clues as to how she and the President will be working together. No, the shouting and stamping is coming from this column’s other favourite Californian, Nancy Pelosi. Ms Pelosi may be rich, and eighty, but she is not going to back off on her mission to ground tackle ex-President Trump and bang his head on the sidewalk. And in her, so far, continuing role as Speaker of the House of Representatives, she is very well placed so to do, bringing forward the articles of impeachment which could lead to Mr Trump’s conviction on charges relating to his speech on the day of invasion of Capitol Hill (and the wrecking of Ms Pelosi’s office).
There is little evidence that the new President or his Veep really want this to happen. Indeed, Mr Biden has vaguely sort of hinted that forgiveness might play best. Joe has always been a great doer of political deals, preferably behind the scenes, and no doubt his perfect deal this time would be one that saw Mr Trump retire quietly to play golf, make money, spend more time with his family, but in particular never run for political office again. That solves the big noisy black (or red) cloud that is otherwise likely to feature on Joe’s horizon, helps a healing process in which more conventional politicians can flourish, and generally calms things down. It would also, as a by-the-by, assist the Republican Party sort itself out, a matter to which we will return no doubt in future months. That might not suit Mr Biden so well, but is possibly better than the alternative.
The alternative, the Pelosi solution you might say, is to give the Donald as good a kicking as her expensive stilettos can inflict, if possible send him to jail, certainly get him banned from holding public office, destabilise his businesses, and look triumphant. She does not seem to have thought this one through, though. The more vicious and personal all this looks, the less likely impeachment is likely to get the required number of votes in the Senate to make it pass – it needs a two thirds majority, so that will require 17 Republican senators to vote for the motion. That looked possible two weeks ago, but it is looking less so now. Not only are GOP senators getting strong messages from their constituencies that Mr Trump is much more popular in the country than he is in Washington and in the media, not only are some slightly discomforted about savaging a member of their own party who has after all left office, they also don’t fancy the fights to come in their own backyards at election times as the Trump wing of the GOP (and his money) intervenes in primary fights. And maybe in some main events as well. Mr Trump, however strong or not his original urge to be President, does not like losing any fight he may happen to pick, and he certainly does not like people who contributed to his loss. Each GOP senator, with the exception of a few long-term anti-Trump campaigners, will be reflecting on the longer term consequences of voting for a Trump impeachment. Even Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republicans in the Senate and also no spring chicken (78 next month), and originally seemingly an impeacher, has been backing off his hotter rhetoric. He has also agreed many of the process rules required to enable the Senate to work when deadlocked, as it is, which suggests the upper house leaders will work together – and not want the disruption of prolonged impeachment proceedings.
What Speaker Pelosi also seems not to have considered is that impeachment will inevitably turn the Donald into a hero and martyr to many Republican voters, and when troubles start to assail the Democrat administration, as they will, as troubles always do in politics, that might not seem to be such a bright idea. A loud, rich, angry, populist ex-President intervening in every election, whether he personally can run or not (and imagine the mileage the Washington swamp will give Saint Donald if his name is excluded from a future ballot) spells trouble. Big mistake, Nancy. And one that could very rapidly come home to roost – the next key elections (surprise by-elections excluded) are those for a third of the Senate seats in two years time. Those seats already have a Republican advantage. Ms Pelosi could be helping a lot of eager Republicans on their way to Washington, and blocking the second half of Mr Biden’s action plan (whatever it may be).
It could of course be that Ms Pelosi has spotted a potential strength in her plans. Or at least, a weakness in the other side’s position. That weakness is large and loud and wearing a blue suit; Mr Trump himself. What Donald should now do is look statesman like, making healing, if hurt noises, complaining about the electoral system but keeping off specifics, run his rallies, and make the most of every Biden wobble and slip. And with some of the wilder new members of the House, there will be plenty of wobbling and slipping; Joe will have problems with both looking moderate and shutting the mad fringe up. Admittedly, there is not likely to be much undoing of the Trump actions of the last four years. Mexican walls and tax breaks for the rich aside, Trump has carried out a pretty solid Democrat programme, one that Joe won’t need to make more than general gestures against, including rejoining every talking shop (and paying the fees) that Donald left.
In the end that may occur to the Republicans too; in spite of all the excitement and noise he wasn’t really much of a Republican president. Best he plays more golf. With Ms Pelosi, that would solve a few problems.
