29 October 2015
Hillary’s Hopes
by J.R.Thomas
The Joe Biden’s announcement last week that he would not be a contender for the Democratic nomination has created quite a dust storm. There is no doubt that most commentators and politicos thought he would run. It also seems that Mr Biden himself expected to run, and a great deal of quiet preparation has been underway, including approaches to key staff, some serious money raising, and the reserving of advertising space. It seems that, in the event, the death of his son, and the stress of another five years in the White House, four of them in the top job, may feel like too much at his age.
But, without being too cynical, we cannot yet rule out the possibility of his running, with his observation that “While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent”. It is not exactly “if nominated I’ll decline. If drafted I’ll defer. And if elected I’ll resign,” as Alex Salmond (in his take on Sherman’s famous words) said. One month later he ran, and won leadership of the Scottish National Party. Not that we are suggesting that Mr Biden will do a Salmond – but if his country calls… And he noticeably asked that people should support the Democrats on the basis of his and President Obama’s record in office, hardly a ringing endorsement of the Clinton ticket.
Biden was running at about a quarter of party supporters in polls when they were asked who they would prefer as their candidate. Biden supporters, who tend to be poor, leftish, manual workers, often from minority groups, may well tend to support Sanders, but even if Hillary Clinton can only pick up twenty percent of them she will start to pull away from Bernie. No doubt her strategy will be to get building as strong a lead as she can, as fast as she can; so strong a lead that everybody else pulls out – or at least, their money does. Indeed, this past week has seen a newly confident Clinton, speaking with assured assertiveness and looking much more relaxed. Bernie is still polling surprisingly well for a man who most of his career has described himself as either an independent or a socialist, but in the first states to choose their nominee, Iowa and New Hampshire, the new polls show Hillary starting to pull ahead.
Some of this must be due to her very polished performances in front of the House Committee on Libya where she gave a strong exposition on the difficulties of making decisions when all is chaos and confusion. Previously this was an issue where she clearly felt vulnerable and looked fumbling, but, last week, she came across as humane and resolute. The problem might be that there is much more to come out about what went on in the Obama Administration concerning Libya and elsewhere, that may well land Hillary back in the ordure, but at the moment she does seem to have closed that box.
Biden is regarded as an upright and honest politician who says it like it is. So, he probably really does mean that he is not going to run. But he is an ambitious man, and in good health, and younger than Bernie Sanders – 72 against Bernie’s 74. (Slight digression here. Ronald Reagan was 69 when he first took office; the oldest ever American President. Hillary Rodham Clinton would be five months younger should she be the winner in 2016. She should be able to remember the date of the election, it is also her birthday. Bernie Sanders would be 75 on entering the Oval Office. On the GOP side Donald Trump would be 70 if he were the one handed the White House key; and Ben Carson a mere 64. It’s a great retirement job).
Biden also has a couple of current advantages that he will be well aware of. First is the obvious one that he is probably the best vote winner among the three leading Democrat candidates. Hillary has a lot of history and it does keep popping up, quite a chunk of it going to her honesty in public office. That continues to be a big problem for her – when asked about trust, Mr Sanders polls very strongly and Mrs Clinton very badly. On strong leadership it is, not surprisingly, the other way round. Bernie wins well on understanding voters needs. But Bernie is almost certainly too left wing, however much of a fun outsider he is, to win a Presidential election.
Second is really the same point, but it goes more to the philosophy of our times. In most democracies the public seem have gone off politicians. In the UK there was an unusual event last May – the incumbent party won the election. That is very much against the trend – in most countries the ruling party, however successful, is unpopular and loses the elections, however inexperienced or unpolished their challengers. And even in the UK, the Conservative success was followed by the defenestration of the entire Labour Party leadership, and the arrival of the people’s Jeremy and his team.
This trend seems to be true for the Republicans in the USA with the outsiders Donald Trump and Dr Carson as front runners and with Jeb Bush, the party establishment choice, facing disaster The man who looked as though he would walk it, is starting to implode– money leaving, key staff talking to Marc Rubio, cost cutting being implemented. So if the mood of the times is anti-establishment, that is a real threat to Hillary and could give Bernie quite a boost – but Bernie is probably just too anti-establishment to win the nomination, and certainly the Presidency. There is a deal to be cut here and that is Hillary taking Bernie on as her Vice President, which would wrap the Democrat nomination up nicely. And there are a lot of advantages in taking on an older Vice President – we won’t dwell on them here, but let’s just say that you as President are unlikely to be stuck with them for a second term. But Bernie, even ignoring his politics, is not ideal Vice Presidential material; geographically (Vermont), ethnically, and even age wise, he does not balance the ticket.
Donald Trump said last week that the one Democrat he feared having to run against was Joe Biden. Joe Biden is not part of the anti-establishment, any more than Hillary is, but if Hillary starts to flounder, if examination of her past starts to find more gopher tunnels than a Minnesota corn field, then what more proper service to his country could Joe perform than stepping forward, a man reluctantly foregoing his retirement to do the right thing. And meanwhile he avoids the mudslinging and the tiring strain of the campaign. Not that he thinks like this, of course; only in political novels do these things occur. Don’t they?
