22 November 2018
Prime Ministers In Trouble
No, not you, Mrs May.
By Neil Tidmarsh
Cheer up, Mrs May. It could be worse. And indeed it is worse for your fellow prime ministers Binyamin Netanyahu of Israel, Andrej Babis of the Czech Republic and (ex-prime minister) Nikola Gruevski of Macedonia. Much worse. A potential leadership challenge? Huh, they’d probably say, is that all? No criminal investigations, no charges, no convictions? How they must envy you.
This week Mr Netanyahu saw his majority in the Knesset shrink to just one and then disappear altogether. First of all, defence minister Avigdor Lieberman resigned and withdrew his Yisrael Beiteinu party from the coalition government in protest against the truce with Hamas in the Gaza strip (which he described as “a capitulation to terror”). Then education minister Naftali Bennet resigned and withdrew his Jewish Home party from the coalition – he’d wanted the vacated defence portfolio but Mr Netanyahu grabbed it for himself. And that left the government seven seats short of a majority in the 120 set Knesset. So Mr Netanyahu is now facing demands from all and sundry to dissolve the government and call elections.
But that isn’t the worst of it. He’s facing more than one criminal investigation and he’s likely to be indicted on corruption charges within the next few months. To stand any chance of surviving that approaching storm, he needs to keep control of the timing of the next general election (his term expires next November) and that is precisely what he appears to have lost this week.
The Czech prime minister Andrej Babis (dubbed the Trump of the Czech Republic when he was elected last year) is also the subject of criminal investigations. A fraud inquiry into his business activities before he was elected (he made billions from agriculture and food-processing) was launched following accusations that he falsely claimed an EU small business grant of almost €2 million by transferring a farm from his conglomerate to his son and daughter, and then transferring ownership of it back to his conglomerate once the grant had been made.
Mr Babis denies the accusation and supported the vote which removed his parliamentary immunity last January. A police investigation into the fraud allegations was launched, but Mr Babis’s 35 year old son disappeared before he could be questioned. Journalists recently tracked him down to Switzerland, however, and now fresh allegations are claiming that his father had him kidnapped and taken to Crimea to stop him from giving evidence. The allegations seem to be backed up by statements the son has given to the journalists. Mr Babis denies these accusations, too. He claims that his son – who was a consultant to the finance ministry – is suffering from mental illness. The prime minister has criticised the press, accusing them of hounding a young man with psychiatric problems.
Nevertheless, these fresh allegations have left Mr Babis fighting for his political life this week; his coalition partners and other party leaders are calling for a parliamentary vote of no confidence in him.
Things are even worse for Nikola Gruevski. He was elected prime minister of Macedonia in 2006 (and won three subsequent elections, in 2008, 2012 and 2014) but he was forced to resign in 2016 following violent anti-government protests prompted by allegations about illegal wire-tapping, police brutality and persecution of the opposition. Investigations were opened; last year his passport was confiscated, and in May this year he was found guilty of corruption and abuse of power (something to do with the purchase of a luxury bullet-proof Mercedes, worth almost €600,000) and sentenced to two years in prison.
He was supposed to start the sentence last week. He failed to present himself to the authorities, however, and a warrant was issued for his arrest. He disappeared for a couple of days – and then police spotted him leaving the country in a car (no, not the bullet-proof Mercedes) with licence plates registered to the Hungarian embassy. He has always been an ally of the Hungary’s far-right prime minister Victor Orban, and it’s believed that Mr Orban had him smuggled out of the country under diplomatic cover. It’s difficult to explain how a man without a passport and the subject of an international arrest warrant could otherwise have entered a country with famously strict immigration rules. This week Hungary admitted that he is seeking asylum there. The current prime minister of Macedonia has demanded his return, but Mr Orban is refusing to hand him over.
So there we go, Mrs May. I hope all this puts your current travails into some sort of perspective. No criminal investigations, charges or convictions. Small mercies, perhaps, but reasons to be cheerful, nevertheless, for you and for all the rest of us.
