17 September 2015
Corbyn Sets the Stage
by John Watson
As the Corbyn circus roars ahead it is worth reflecting for a moment on how it is to be melded into a coherent opposition. There are already disparate views within the shadow cabinet on a wide range of issues. The shadow defence secretary favours Trident. Mr Corbyn does not. There seem to be any number of views on whether or not Labour will commit to supporting continuing EU membership. Meanwhile, amongst the Labour MPs, there is even more dissension. Many of those who were previously in the shadow cabinet have retreated to the back benches in the hope of weathering the storm. They do not want to be too closely associated with Corbyn but refusal to follow the whip could be a quick route to deselection. It is certainly a “keep your head down” moment.
Suppose, though, that a common line begins to emerge, at least among the shadow cabinet. The next thing will be to sell it to the public, and for that it has to be credible. That does not mean it has to be left-wing or centrist (it is possible to argue logically for either position) but it mustn’t just be nonsense. A foreign policy which suggests that defence could be replaced by dialogue will not be credible if the public is conscious that the type of negotiation required simply doesn’t work. Nor will policies which flout the laws of economics. After all, we are in the end about 64.5 million people living on one and a half Islands and dependent on imported food. We need to be fed, educated, clothed and protected, all to a reasonable standard. Any program which does not have a coherent plan for that will not get out of the starting gate.
The question of what works and what doesn’t is particular important in the field of economics. The new shadow chancellor John McDonnell is anti-austerity and believes in higher tax rates. Those, at least, are his preferences politically. A program incorporating these ideas, however, will only work if the first does not lead to a debt crisis which destroys the economy and if it really is true that high tax rates do not stifle growth – something which those of us who remember the 70s would probably doubt.
It was to put flatterers in their place that Canute gave his famous demonstration that he could not control the waves, but there was also a broader subtext. There is no point in leaders trying to do things which are beyond their power and that, of course, includes bucking the laws of economics. It is not enough for Mr McDonnell to boast that his heart is in the right place if his system does not work. No one will thank him if the economy collapses.
Inevitably there will be a period of confusion while Mr Corbyn and his colleagues work to find a common platform. It will take leadership from him and here, alas, there is another problem. Rather than making the decisions himself, he is anxious that they should be made by the party members. The trouble with that is that the caucus is not a good decision-making body and is unlikely to come up with policies which are consistent. At some point Mr Corbyn or those around him will need to jettison that approach and replace it with something a good deal tougher. If they do not do so they are plainly doomed.
While all this goes on, David Miliband must be calculating his chances. He has wisely kept well clear of the leadership elections. After all, he is not a member of the House of Commons and last week was not a good one for men of the centre. If all falls into ruin, however, the game will be quite different and he might get the opportunity to return as some sort of a saviour.
When George I became King of England, those who supported the return of the Stuarts had a problem. If they refused to drink the King’s health they could be labelled as traitors. On the other hand they did not wish to toast a man they regarded as a usurper. So when they raised the glass and said “The King” they would pass it over some water, secretly converting the subject of the toast from King, George to “The King over the Water”- i.e. the Stuart pretender languishing in France. So if you are at any Labour dinner parties and notice that when the toast to the Leader is drunk some of those present pass their wine glass over their water glass, you will know exactly where their loyalties lie.
