26 April 2018
Rising Waters
by J.R. Thomas
A couple of weeks ago we wrote of the troubles that Ms Stormy Daniels was visiting on the Trumpian White House. For the sake of those readers of a nervous disposition we will not venture again into the astonishing life and work of Ms Daniels or her possible relationship with Mr Trump. Other than perhaps to say that, as with the first house-martin of spring, the first generally presages a lot more, and Ms Daniel’s allegations have been followed by various others.
But the politics of this are still looking a little dangerous to the White House. Unconnected but not unexpected was an FBI raid on the offices of Michael Cohen, Mr Trump’s personal lawyer, on behalf of Robert Mueller, special investigator as to Russian influence on the Presidential election of 2016. This resulted in a large number of files relating to various matters that Mr Cohen is advising his client on being removed; some of these may or may not be in Russian, or at least concerning Russia, but others relate to Ms Daniels, and so says a gleeful leaker (a “leakist?”) “close to Mr Mueller”, other ladies. And Mr Cohen’s remarkable legal services of paying off litigants at his expense and not charging his client. To tender European susceptibilities, state agencies seizing lawyer’s clients documents sounds horrific, and indeed if you cannot have privileged conversations with your lawyer and your doctor, and possible also with your barber, things have reached a pretty pass. But in the US this sort of thing is possible (though Mr Cohen is vigorously arguing that it isn’t), on the usual grounds that if you have nothing to hide you have nothing to worry about (an excuse of snoopers throughout the centuries).
Mr Trump has an obvious remedy to Mr Mueller’s enquiring mind and encroaching fingers and that it is to fire him. That was done by Richard Nixon as he grappled with the encircling tentacles of the Watergate enquiry, though Mr Nixon had a problem – he could not fire the special prosecutor directly but had to get the Attorney General to do it. The AG resigned rather than do so, as did his deputy, and Mr Nixon had to commission a hasty search for somebody who was willing to wield the knife (in the end Robert Burk, the Solicitor General, did it, and lost his chance at the Supreme Court fourteen years later).
Nixon calculated he might just get away with a firing. Trump though has a more immediate problem; six months away are the mid-term elections. All the seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. If the Republicans lose that, or indeed their tight majority in the Senate, he becomes pretty much a lame duck President. More than that might trouble the Donald; there are signs that the Republican Party is moving against the cuckoo in the GOP nest.
Latest unexplained event – or at least to conspiracy theorists everywhere it is unexplained – is the retirement of Paul Ryan, GOP leader in Congress. Mr Ryan is not retiring age; he is 48. He says (no points for originality) he wants to spend more time with his family. He is also one of the nicest people on the hill, and a man who is popular in most parts of the House. With a leader as detached from the party as the Donald, Ryan was, until his unexpected announcement, probably the most powerful Republican. His announcement was a major shock and nobody quite believes he is retiring from political life. The view is that this is a very subtle manoeuvre, not without some risk, that would free Mr Ryan up to run for the presidency for the Republicans in 2020. One risk is of course that Mr Trump will go for a second term, though Ryan could run against him in the primaries. Unusual, unlikely to be successful, but even so, it lays down a powerful marker for 2024 – when Mr Ryan will be 54. Mr Ryan is saying absolutely nothing, other than how much he looks forward to spending more time with his family. And promoting as candidate for his Wisconsin seat Bryan Steil, a younger version of Mr Ryan – and formerly his driver. Mr Ryan is not a Trump type populist by any chalk, but he is a very personable politician whose career should certainly not be over – America needs politicians like him.
There are other moves afoot in the Republican camp. Mr Trump has several times twittered about firing Mr Mueller, in a rather ruminative sort of way, but has been warned by several Republicans not to. The warnings have been rather half hearted but there is a school of thought in Washington that these are all coordinated dance steps. The Republican Party does not want to be seen to threaten the President; the President wants to do things in his own style; but actually, he knows that firing Mueller will not be helpful. Easier perhaps to let him publish his enquiries which are unlikely to be conclusive, brush them aside, and let it all blow over.
Meanwhile, in a different place a familiar face has emerged. Hillary Clinton has intervened in the conversations on Brexit and as to how an Irish border would work. You might think that the best thing American politicians can do when it comes to Euro-politics is keep well out of them. Mr Obama certainly ought to have learnt that when his comments about trade agreements (“back of the queue, you Brits”) was probably worth a good number of votes to the Leavers. So why would Mrs C want to put her feet into an Irish puddle? Because the Irish heritage vote and influence in the Democrat Party remains strong, that is why. Your correspondent was in Boston last week and in a town that is ruled by an Irish-Italiano coalition of interests was reminded that anybody who wants the Democrat Party on her side has to play to that gallery. Mr Clinton was in Dublin to play the Irish card, and Mrs C even went so far as to write an article for the Guardian on the subject (in which some commentators saw the bronzed hand of Tony Blair). It was all only slightly undermined by former Senator George Mitchell, who chaired the talks that led to the Good Friday Agreement, saying that he thought the urge for peace would survive a bit of Brexit turmoil.
Apart from a book tour, Mrs Clinton has kept her head well down until now, but the question is whether the lady might fancy a third run for the presidency in 2020. Ryan versus Clinton. There’s a thought.
And we cannot depart American shores without commemorating Barbara Bush, who died last week. Mrs Bush was only the second woman to be both the wife and mother of presidents (Mrs Adams was the other). She was very much a First Lady of grace, fun, and energy, doing much to make the USA a better place, not least by the example of her and her husband as to what duty means. At her funeral, all the living ex-Presidents and their spouses (other than Jimmy Carter, whose wife is unwell, and Mr Trump who thought he would be a distraction but was represented by Melania) were present. Not only present but relaxed and friendly. Maybe the political system is in better health than we think.
