05 October 2017
The Tale of Mrs M
by J.R. Thomas
There is something wholly delightful about the way in which practically all commentators are wholly consistent in their prediction of election results. And wrong. And indeed about the politicians who happily endorse the predictions and so persuade themselves against all the odds to believe their own publicity.
Mrs Clinton and even more so the press thought at every possible opportunity that she had in the bag whichever particular cat she was trying to catch – Barrack Obama in 2008 (he won), Bernie Sanders in 2016 (she won, but it was a close run thing), Mr Trump (he won). Gordon Brown and the press agreed that he had walked it in 2010 against David Cameron – Mr Cameron won (albeit in coalition). In a reversal of direction but not trend, Mr Cameron thought and the press concurred that he had lost in 2015; but not so (he probably wished he had done so fourteen months later). And Mrs May was on course, the press and she agreed, for a massive majority in 2017 – er, no.
So when the cynical Shaw Sheet – not cynical, seasoned, the Editors insist – noticed that Mrs Merkel was said to be on course for her fourth successive term as Chancellor we should have advised our readers to get quickly down to the bookmakers to put down a few contrary Euros. As it happens she was not defeated, quite, in the same way that Mrs May was not quite defeated in June. But she fought the same non/low key campaign and with a similar result. She did not lose but she not win either. Indeed, her party, the CDU, (the Christian Democratic Union) slumped to its lowest share of the vote since 1949 – in comparison with Mrs May’s Conservatives who actually scored a thirty year record high.
Angela is in the same tricky position as Theresa; that of not having a majority sufficient to govern with. Both ladies need partners; and the ladies are not so keen on those available. But needs must, and Mrs May has made some new friends in Ulster and is hoping her old Tory friends will not abandon her. Where Mrs Merkel will find her new friends is not so clear.
Unlike Mrs M, Frau M has been outmanoeuvred not to the left but to the right, by a new political party, AfD, Alternative for Deutschland. Afd is UKIP-in-Germany, not yet campaigning for Gerixt (Deutschixt?), but not great fans of the European Union, against immigration and immigrants, and generally for old fashioned German values. Like UKIP, it is a strange coalition of extreme right wingers, old fashioned conservatives, and nationalists of varying degrees of intolerance for foreign persons. That simplistic nationalist cause has engendered unexpectedly strong support in this election, from almost six million voters, giving it 12.6% of the popular vote. It performed especially well in the former East German states, and became the largest single block in Saxony.
The post war West German rebasing of democracy was carefully designed to keep out parties of the fringes and the extremes, to avoid subversion of democracy from within. It did not allow, nor, in reality could it allow, for groups of extremists gathering into coalitions; AfD has done just that and breached the barriers with one great leap, giving it 94 seats in the Bundestag, making it the third largest party.
Angela may be the cosy Muti (Mother) of the German nation, but she is also a wily old fox and the one thing she will not do is go into coalition with AfD. That would destroy her reputation and the carefully crafted moderate conservative image of her Christian Democrat Party. So where can she find the friends she needs? Not with the Social Democrats (SPD) who have been part of her Grand Coalition for the whole of her past term. Martin Schulz took over leadership of the centre-left party with great expectations only six months ago, fresh from his previous role of Presidency of the European Parliament, but his party’s boosted opinion poll ratings did not last long. Mrs M’s careful stewardship of the economy and image as a strong and safe pair of hands undermined Schulz’s criticisms of her leadership and Mr Schulz came over as a dull and unimaginative leader; his late switch to campaigning on immigration issues merely made him look opportunistic. The result was the SPD reduced to only 21% of the vote, like the CDU, its lowest share of the vote since the 1940’s.
The big winners were the minority parties – not just AfD, but also the Green Party, not hugely significant but, with 8% of the vote and 67 seats, far from inconsequential; The Left (no prizes for guessing their orientation), with 9% and 69 seats: and the FPD, a liberal party of libertarian cast with 11% of the votes and 90 seats. (This incidentally is a powerful comeback for the FPD; though a long established party it fell below the 5% of votes threshold in 2013 and lost all its seats.)
To add to the confusion of acronyms, the CDU is itself a coalition, of the CDU itself and the CSU, the Christian Social Union. The CSU has been the ruling party of Bavaria for many a year, Bavaria being almost semi-detached from the rest of Germany when it comes to politics (and social attitudes, some Germans would add). We should also give an honourable mention, in a country which is said to have no sense of humour, to The Party Party, which wants to rebuild the Berlin Wall and is best described as a satirical movement – it managed to gather a quarter million votes, which alas gives it no seats and no possible role in a coalition.
The FPD appears to be the obvious friend and coalition partner now for the CDU/CSU, though it has nervous memories of the last time it went dancing with Mrs Merkel – which may well have led to its loss of support in 2013. Philosophically the two parties are relatively close so in the end a deal might be done. But that will not be enough to give Mrs M a majority, which brings her to the plain pine door of the Green Party. Germany is a country where Green issues rank very high and where conservation is strongly supported across party lines. The Greens themselves, although generally described as Centre/Left, are quite pragmatic about working with other parties to achieve progress on green issues.
Lord Dunsany, that great novelist of Edwardian times, wrote one tale (“My Talks With Dean Spanley”) partly from the perspective of a dog. In it he described how dogs, smelling death on other dogs, would go to great lengths to avoid them. As with dogs, so with politicians. Mrs May must be getting familiar with careful distancing by those colleagues who a few months ago wanted to be in her pack. And Mrs Merkel, her fellow party leaders will detect, has a slight tang of political death around her. So who wants to be in her gang; and on what terms? The upside of being junior player in a coalition is hard to see (unless, it must be said, you are an Ulster politician with a carefully crafted shopping list). The FPD has been there and much good it did them. The Greens could be a very muddy green after four years with Mrs M. Both those parties also have doubts about the EU, especially about the role of the euro as a currency, which would do serious damage to Mrs Merkel’s role as de facto leader of European nations – not that M. Macron would mind that. The SPD have seen what coalition can do, with The Left now doing an outflanking move per J Corbyn. And even talking to AfD would be Angela’s ending.
Mrs Merkel is a very serious politician and does not want to retire yet. Most Germans think she will survive this, and probably in a way that will be to her considerable advantage. The next few weeks will show how.
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