11 May 2017
On the Hill, Off the Rails
The administration takes shape.
By J.R.Thomas
We have had a complaint. Probably a spoof but when it has that seal on it, and that eagle, and is signed (by a machine running low on ink, but still,) “Donald”, we have to take it seriously. POTUS says that politics is a serious business and nobody told him what hard work it would be. The least we can do is not ignore him.
True, Sir.
We have a little thing going on in the UK, but the way things are, the affairs of Uncle Sam should not be forgotten, especially as the news items which hit the media from the US are maybe not entirely representative of events. Which is, in short summary, that the Trump machine seems to be in gear and starting to make progress (forward, we should maybe add). Indeed, we think that Mr Trump’s next book, to follow on from “The Art of the Deal” should be “The Art of the Compromise”. Mr Trump has started to find a way to strike deals with the Republican Party in Congress. Not the Democrat Party – we know Donald is the Republican President but you might not have thought it over the last few months as he and the Republicans disagreed about almost everything and his initiatives were blocked on the Hill. But now things are moving – the threatened cessation of funding which would have closed down the Federal government was averted, the White House agreeing that the current spending bill would not contain money for the Mexican border wall, and also that the planned changes in the Obama introduced health care funding insurance would be delayed. But the funding proposal did include a big increase in military spending and some protection for health benefits for retired miners, which was one of Mr Trump’s election promises, though one without much detail attached.
What is more surprising about this is that in the end the negotiations to get the appropriation bill through were surprisingly good tempered with Mr Trump and the Republicans making peace, and in the House both sides professing to be happy with what they had achieved – and both claiming to be the winners.
Not that that lasted long. On 4th May the Republicans got through the House their “roll-back” bill, the first stage of cutting Obamacare benefits. This stage is a trim – trimming benefits, cutting (fairly lightly) the number of beneficiaries, and pruning some coverage for those who came into the programme with pre-existing conditions. The Republicans were pleased with getting into law so early a key plank of their (and the President’s) electoral platform; the Democrats, every single House member voting against the bill, said that the effect of this would hit the electorate just as the 2018 midterm elections come into view and would ensure some major Republican losses, sufficient to get the House back in Democrat control. so they might be said to be happy too. The bill has to go to the Senate now and there is no doubt that although the fine detail will be further negotiated there, it will almost certainly pass.
So a much happier GOP, one that is at last looking as though it won the November 2016 elections. But there is some nervousness; the mid-term elections will be along soon and nobody really knows how the electorate views politics just at this time. The voters always seem to resist a party controlling all three branches of the decision making process for long, and that is not the least reason why some Republican House members with large numbers of healthcare beneficiaries among their constituents are concerned that it is not good politics to remove real benefits once handed out.
But back to the wall, or perhaps, The Wall. The Donald is not giving up on The Wall. It was a key plank of his manifesto and probably swung him enough votes in some of those rust belt states to get him into the Oval Office. He has tweeted that the wall will be built – or at least extended, as, of course, about a quarter of it already exists. And his spokesmen and recently the President himself have confirmed to the press that it will be built during his first term (note that bit, folks) and that somehow Mexico will be paying for it (note that as well). But for the time being the President accepts that The Wall will initially be funded by the US tax payer.
Tax is perhaps next on the agenda. The Donald wants to get both corporate and personal rates down, perhaps more so corporate so that he can encourage US businesses to build their expansion, and jobs, in the States. He has talked of tax breaks for companies that repatriate their assets to the US and various incentives to hire American workers. These measures will presumably be coupled with some tax easing for individuals – helping business pay less tax may be good for the economy in the long run, but is not that popular among voters; couple it with some easing for private tax payers, especially for the low paid, and it can be taken to Congress where the Democrats will have some difficulty opposing it, and the Republicans will really have something to cheer.
All the signs are that the Trump Administration is learning these sleights of presentation fast. Donald promised to set American business free from over regulation and too many controls. That has hardly been mentioned since his election and off the record briefings say this is not a top priority. Letting Wall Street bankers loose is not what the American public is hollering for just at the moment, though the White House, the most business orientated probably for a century or so, would no doubt like it done. But here comes the new subtlety: don’t do this directly but make sure that the regulators, who have a lot of free rein in these areas, are replaced by less intrusive persons who interpret the rules with a more pro-business eye. This is already happening; the latest Presidential appointments at the Federal Reserve and the SEC (the banking regulator) are clearly business friendly – the latest is the new head of the SEC, Jay Clayton, who was approved by the Senate last week, and is already making waves.
Donald does not ride trains, nor does he see why anybody else would, at least long distance. He proposes that Amtrak, the state owned operator of long distance passenger trains, have its federal funding removed. All railroads in the US gave up long distance passenger trains long ago. Amtrak was set up in the early 1970’s to continue running passenger services over the private freight carriers, carrying those who don’t like flying, tourists, or those with lots of time on their hands. Unfortunately there aren’t enough of any of them and it is heavily loss making. It has been shrinking for a long time but now it looks as if the whole problem will be transferred to the states through which the trains roll – or to the passengers – which means it will mostly shutdown.
The Democrats don’t like any of this, but there is not much they can do about it until and unless they win a stronger position on the Hill. And Mr Trump and his team are rapidly becoming more subtle in their approach to political life. The bombing of the chemical stores in Syria has gone down well with the public, as did that careful targeted bombing in Afghanistan, and as does the carrot and stick approach to North Korea; the offer to meet Mr Kim was a masterstroke, but so is the quiet persuasion of China that they must do something about their noisy neighbour.
What nobody was expecting was a politically astute President Trump; maybe this will be as far as it will go, but the Republicans are looking cheerful – and the Democrats are just beginning to wonder if they may be up against President Trump for a second term in November 2020.
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