06 April2017
Arsenal and the Second Curve
Management science suggests Arsene Wenger should keep his job – for now
by Frank O’Nomics
“Retirement is dying”, according to Arsene Wenger, who has said that he has (nearly) made up his mind to stay as manager of Arsenal FC, potentially for 2 more seasons. There is a real danger in writing about football when a manager may be just one defeat away from dismissal, but the Arsenal board have said that any decision reached will be mutual, and one is inclined to believe them given that they have hitherto shown their long serving manager the respect that his record deserves. There will be many Gunners fans who will be intensely frustrated by what they will regard as a refusal to accept that this year’s record points to the need for a change. However, there is some well-argued management science, and a decent body of historic evidence, that suggests that Wenger remaining for two more seasons, thereby allowing the development of a proper succession plan, makes perfect sense.
Management guru, Charles Handy, in a recent book, “The Second Curve”, looks at capitalism, asking whether it is a sustainable system, and presents some very rational arguments that can be applied to a wide range of circumstances – even football management. Once society is out of balance, he argues, it is sometimes necessary to start a new and radical course, which involves a whole new way of thinking. The key, to avoid upheaval and risky destabilisation, is to start the new course while the old system is still operating. If we represent this as a standard curve which, having seen a degree of steep progress is levelling out with a high risk of turning down, we need to start a new curve that has time to develop the momentum to take over before the old one plummets. In the case of a football team, this means bringing in a new regime to work alongside the existing one, so that a seamless handover can be orchestrated before the rot sets in. Thus Arsenal would bring in one of the wave of new young European managers as an assistant to Arsene Wenger in the close season this summer, so that they can develop a rapport with the existing talent and educate them into a new system.
Looking at the really successful clubs over the last few decades, there is strong evidence to support this approach. Take Bill Shankly’s Liverpool for example. Shankly was widely regarded as an innovative force in football, but, arguably, the club went on to achieve more once he had passed on managerial responsibilities to a long-standing member of his coaching team, Bob Paisley. This success was then continued via Joe Fagin, and then with their first player-manager, Kenny Dalglish. At each transition the club was able to avoid the void created by a departing manager, and to bring in new systems (via its own playing staff) as the nature of the game, and of Liverpool’s competition, changed. The record of success is impressive over a long period. If we measure achievement in terms of winning the top domestic league and European cups we see that Liverpool went from 4 trophies under Shankly, to 9 under Paisley, 2 under Fagin, and 3 under Dalglish. In effect they managed to sustain regular success from the 1960’s until the early-1990’s. It was only when they made more sudden changes to their management that Liverpool lost their way.
Consider, as a contrast, the approach adopted by Manchester United. There are two periods where their lack of succession planning did not work. First, they struggled to find a manager to follow in the footsteps of Sir Matt Busby. The club even found itself spending a season in the old Second Division as they struggled to get the management structure right, despite employing names such as Tommy Docherty and Dave Sexton (one incumbent, Wilf McGuinness, ruefully lays claim to serving for 4 seasons – spring, winter, summer and autumn). It was only when they brought in Sir Alex Ferguson that their fortunes really turned around, and even he was in serious danger of losing his job in the early stages. There were 26 years between Busby’s last First Division title and Ferguson’s first, and 31 years between their European Cup victories. Since Ferguson’s departure the story has repeated itself – Manchester United are on their third new manager and the prospects of a major title still seem very remote.
The answer for Arsenal who, while they may be 13 years from their last Premiership title, have still managed to get to at least the last 16 in the European Champions League for 17 years in a row, is to properly plan the process of putting in place Arsene Wenger’s successor well in advance of his departure. There is talk of putting Wenger into a new role as Director of Football and bringing in a new coach to work with him (there does not seem to be any obvious candidate to take over within his existing team), but whether this will be acceptable to Arsene Wenger remains to be seen. Having turned down a highly paid role in China, there are stories of Wenger being approached by Real Madrid. The Arsenal board may then find themselves in the strange position of having to persuade him to stay at a time when a significant section of their fans want him to leave. Those fans staged a protest at Wednesday night’s game by staying on the concourse for the first 13 minutes (one for each of the failed Premiership campaigns) and sadly may not be easily convinced by the application of management science.
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