14 September 2017
High Office, and How To Hold It
Boris’s wilderness years
by J.R.Thomas
If you had asked Boris in May 2016 what he expected to be doing in the autumn of 2017, you would doubtless have got a witty but evasive answer. To those who persevered, sat with him after a fine feast, with a glass of whisky finding its appreciated target, and asked him to seriously answer that question, and had fought their way through the fluff and wit and further evasion, he might have said “On the back benches”. Adding after a little thought, and turning of the glass, “Or Prime Minister”.
Mr Johnson has never concealed his ambition, or his determination to achieve it. Like his hero, Winston Churchill, he has fought and manoeuvred and conspired towards the top job. And like Winston, he has several times mis-stepped and slid back down the pole, landing painfully on an increasingly bruised reputation. Winston never wavered, either in his beliefs or his ambition. Boris has; and that may yet be his undoing. He especially wavered over his attitude to the Referendum and was slow to finally join the Leave campaign, making him look opportunistic, though by all accounts this was due to a painful sense of loyalty to Dave and George. And the word is that his urge to move to that Downing Street address, to swap Chevening for Chequers, is currently a little abated. Boris has a glorious sweeping historical perspective on life and perhaps increasingly sees that in these troubled and abusive times, First Amongst Equals is liable to be a punishing and painful experience.
Which to future historians, may seem strange at this point in the Johnson career. He has achieved what is at least the third great office of state; that of Foreign Secretary, more glorious though less powerful than the Chancellorship of the Exchequer. Traditionally it was a hugely advantageous position for the final leap to No 10; though in recent decades, more a consolation prize for those who missed out on the top job. Sir Alec Douglas-Home was an elegant and intelligent occupant of the office both before and after his brief premiership; William Hague took it on under the Cameron administration and made a fine job of it. But nobody thinks that Boris was given this as either a consolation prize or as an internship for moving upwards when Mrs May was ready to leave.
Indeed, it is not clear why Mrs May did put him in there. The most charitable view is that she thought he would make a fine job of it, with a suitable skillset marinaded in his historico-classicist world view and his rich sense of charm and humour. (This is not intended sarcastically; apart from the odd if cringe making bloomers, he can be and usually is, a charming and fascinating man.) The more received view is that Theresa thought he would make an utter mess of it and destroy his already crumbling reputation. Though his opponents in front and his enemies behind have tried to give his tenure of office such a gloss, overall he seems to be doing not a bad job. He may destroy this view with some dreadful crass slip as we go to press, but the man or his team do seem to have the cock-up department under control. He has worked hard, mastered his brief, travels a lot building what looks like post Brexit bridges to future friends, and has kept his head carefully lowered. He has delivered some thoughtful speeches, which are seldom reported in any detail – the media have cast Boris as the clown and refuse to see him as serious. Most telling of all may be a small thing – he has taken to writing articles for The Times, abandoning his former outlet of the Telegraph. That does suggest a new seriousness indeed.
If one accepts that common view of Mrs May’s motives of putting him in the FO, that it would solve the Boris problem in short order but show her respect for the Leaver Tendency, it has, like most of Mrs M’s actions, badly backfired. The election disaster meant that what would have been a post-election Massacre of the Ministers could not take place. The May loyalists, whoever they may have been thought to have been, still sit on the back benches or in junior ministerial jobs. And Mrs May’s senior ministers rest unexpectedly securely, or as secure as a minister ever can be in such difficult times.
So how does Boris play the great game now? The role that was supposed to destroy him just could turn out to be the making of him. He can keep more or less out of sight, but at the same time build a reputation as a hardworking and serious senior secretary of state. The more abuse the grand panjandrums of Brussels throw at him the better for his standing in the Tory Party and amongst the UK electorate. Among the Conservative faithful he is perhaps not quite as popular as he was; that havering on the Referendum did him much damage, and the golden boy of the west, Mr Rees-Mogg, has, at least temporarily, stolen some of his thunder. But if that proverbial bus, thundering down Whitehall, should sweep away Theresa, the party in the country would still be strongly for Boris in any leadership election. More strongly than any other likely contender, anyway.
Which brings us to another Churchill parallel. If the 1930’s were Winston’s wilderness years, these are Boris’s. Past successes such as his Mayoralty are forgotten; his actions look more than a little self-serving; his eccentricities make him seem unreliable rather than lovable. The loyalists in the constituencies still adore him, but his popular standing is diminished. Young challengers are on the rise; and the talk in the party is that Mrs M must serve until Brexit has past – 2019 or thereabouts. Then the leadership must pass to the next generation. Given that the main current contenders are in their 50’s this seems not so much an urge among the kingmakers of the party for youthful leadership as to avoid a prolonged bloodbath over the next couple of years. Or simply to spite Boris.
Which is the crux of the Boris problem, and was the crux of Churchill’s. Neither enjoyed any significant popularity among the parliamentary party. Churchill was seen as a man of the past, an old wolf howling; Boris after his Brexit behaviour and his further uncertain flailing post David Cameron’s stepping down looks like a blundering hippo. At least Boris is in senior office, but it is hard to build a glorious reputation at the Foreign Office; the main thing is not to insult potential friends or inadvertently start a war. If Boris can avoid those pitfalls and rebuild a reputation for stylish competence he may regain some support in the parliamentary party. If he can persuade the nervous holders of newly marginal seats that he is a reasonably sure-fire election winner, he will suddenly find he has a lot more friends on the green benches. But he is not much of a smoocher of the tea rooms or diner in those expensively discreet Westminster restaurants where persuading gets done. Given it is too late to convincingly learn such talents, Boris needs events to go his way.
Which they just might, given the times. Mrs May will not last long, Mrs Rudd is not trusted or even known and has an alarmingly marginal seat; Mr Hammond is too grey and Mr Davies too old. Who else is there? Just one. He has a grey beard and is sitting opposite. Seeing off that populist man of the people, Jeremy Corbyn, might be best done by another, a wit with a common touch, a blond bombshell with a brain, a character with a track record . If, that is, he really wants the job.
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