03 August 2017
Dancing on Hot Coals
Turmoil in the White House.
by J R Thomas
Maybe it is not so much hot coals as polished sabres. Whatever President Donald Trump is executing his footwork over, his jigging is looking increasingly dangerous. Six months into his presidency things are looking increasingly chaotic, and not much is getting done. Can he last his term?
That anyway is what the media would generally like to suggest is the issue facing the Trump White House. This column likes to stand above party affiliations and tries to avoid taking sides, but often finds itself saying of President Obama’s successor, thoughtfully, chin in hand “Yes, but…”.
“Yes, but…”. On the face of it, things are not looking good for the new Administration at the moment. The Russian hoo-ha seems to have died down – but that is merely temporary whilst various congressional committees and eager journalists see what they can winkle out. Very little so far, some of us have noted; other than the fact that the Trump family was keen to help the paterfamilias win the election last fall by meeting Russians who claimed to have some dirt on Mrs Clinton. Persons claiming to have new dirt on Mrs C. were rife last year, and some may even have had some, but the Trump camp won using only the old stuff, so that part of the Russian mystery might eventually wither and vanish. Mr Trump’s policy initiatives suggest no great closeness to Mr Putin, and even less to Mr Xi of China, now catching the Twitter lash for not sorting out North Korea following another missile test; this missile seemingly capable of flying further and faster than the previous (which ended in what the late Eddie Waring would have called “an early bath” by coming down not far from home in the Pacific).
But while foreign affairs seem to be as per normal, the White House team is in turmoil. Whatever the reason for the tensions, the revolving door is turning so quickly that some appointees are being fired before they even manage to find their desk. Most high profile casualty of the week is Anthony Scaramucci (scary name, scary guy) who was sacked on Monday two weeks before he was even due to formally start as White House Communications head. That apparently was insisted on by John Kelly, the retired general who is Mr Trump’s new best friend, moving from Head of Homeland Security (where he is widely regarded as having done a good job) to White House Chief of Staff (widely regarded as an impossible job). To those of our readers who are not devotees of “The West Wing” or “House of Cards” we should explain that chief of staff in the White House is probably the most powerful non-political job that exists in Washington. (It does not, so far as we know, involve taking the rap for the President’s murders, as per Dougie in House of Cards; though the tale of the Underwood White House is as nothing compared with the Trump version in many respects).
The general has negotiated hard and now sits at the very top of the White House tree, with even the First Daughter and the First Son-in-Law reporting to him. And he will find himself in familiar company, alongside retired generals Mattis at Defence, Dunford as chairman of the joint staff committee, and National Security Advisor McMaster. Trump seems to like the military style and that the generals dourly get on with their jobs and do not indulge in internal politics – or if they do, are better at keeping it low key.
Mr Kelly displaced Reince Priebus, fired by way of Twitter. Mr Priebus may have had the shortest tenure of any White House Chief of Staff ever, but firing him may yet turn out to be a major mistake; he is very well connected in the Republican Party, one of the few Trump officials who is, and that and the stalled legislative programme is slowly biting away at the chains which should bind the President and the majority party together. Mr Trump may be realising this; he has made some reconciliatory remarks about Mr Priebus in the last couple of days, and Mr Kelly may also want him back on side soon in some capacity.
Another factor eroding those chains is The Donald’s treatment of his Attorney-General, Jeff Sessions. Mr Sessions was a leading Republican Senator, from Alabama; he was the first Senator to publicly support Mr Trump and seemed to get his reward by being appointed Attorney-General. But this seems to have become a sort of Thomas a Becket re-run. Mr Sessions was a lawyer before entering politics; his initial political appointments were in legal jobs; he was fired by Bill Clinton’s A-G Janet Reno as State Attorney-General for Southern Alabama, awaking a dislike for political interference in legal affairs and an antipathy to the Clintons. He is very popular on Capitol Hill, a conservative of that good old Deep South type, but also a man of principle and honour. And not one who is going to ride over the rough corners of the law which don’t suit Mr Trump. What has particularly upset Donald is the appointment of a special counsel to investigate the links between the Trump campaign and those shadowy Russians. Mr Sessions’ view is that if there is nothing to hide there is nothing to fear. The subtext is of course, though Mr Sessions is much too well mannered and controlled to say it, is that if something smelly is discovered, then Mr Trump may have a lot to fear, and Mr Sessions will let the law take its full and proper course.
Mr Trump has not, Henry II like, summoned three trusty knights to his table to denounce Mr Session’s views on how to conduct matters. He did his own denouncing by Twitter, saying “I’m very disappointed with the attorney-general, but we will see what happens. Time will tell. Time will tell”. Mr Sessions would be well advised to avoid cathedral steps for a while, but otherwise is sitting tight. He is supported by the Republican Party in that, and any move to fire him would really start to cast president and party adrift of each other.
With all these troubles in the Human Resources Department you may be wondering what is happening in the Trump policy area. What has been done about tax cuts, for instance, and is the construction of that Wall coming along; and where has the shutdown of Obamacare got to? The answers are, respectively: nothing, it isn’t, and nowhere. The Administration is distracted by that internal turmoil, and the President, perhaps surprisingly, is not attempting to be a leader or a dealmaker in these matters.
To get his programme through will need some Presidential charm, or threats (back to Frank Underwood in House of Cards). The Republicans have a majority of two in the Senate, and with John McCain seriously ill and two other dissenters it is in effect impossible to get anything controversial through. (It is even more difficult with Senator McCain present as he is one of Trump’s most determined and persuasive opponents.) The one thing that probably would unite the party is a series of tax cutting measures, but so far there is not much sign of that. Probably for the very good reason that Mr Trump wants to save the more popular stuff for later, nearer to the midterm elections, and get the tricky things such as rolling back the Obama health programme dealt with sooner.
Which suggests that Mr Trump is a more thinking politician than he is often given credit for; if he can get his team sorted out and pointing all the same way at the same time, with his generals exercising some discipline on what is said and done, he may yet succeed in getting his vision of America in place. But for that to happen will need the generals’ prime objective to be clearly defined; to get the boss himself disciplined, terse, and consistently pointing the right way.
If you enjoyed this article please share it using the buttons above.
Please click here if you would like a weekly email on publication of the ShawSheet
