25 May 2017
It’s Behind You
Politicans should watch their backs.
by J.R.Thomas
Trouble on both sides of the Atlantic for politicians new to power. On the western shore Mr Trump begins to feel the heat from strange recent events involving, or maybe not, Russian influence, and on the eastern side Mrs May makes a policy mis-step – and then, in reversing out makes a bigger one. And what both politicians seem to have forgotten is that old adage, that in politics, your opponents are in front of you – but your enemies are behind you.
Mr Trump may feel that his enemies are all around him, such is the volume of opprobrium which greets every pronouncement, tweet, and policy initiative. And it is true to say that the Democrats (and the liberal intelligentsia generally) are still sore at losing the Presidential election, though maybe tempered by a certain sense of relief that the Clinton’s are not back in the White House. But wiser Democrats will be reflecting that the party did not do well in the Senate or House elections. President Rodham Clinton would be looking at a Republican majority in both houses, just as President Trump is, and the Democrats have a problem as to how to become winners again. Remember, even under Mr Obama they failed to win either chamber for most of his term. The Republicans though also have a problem – the Washington establishment and the party grandees generally did not want Mr Trump as their nominee or candidate, but were prepared to put up with him if, and when, he turned out to be a winner. What we don’t know is to what extent the GOP were able to ride on The Donald’s coat tails to achieve the success they did in Congress. There is much research being done on voting intentions and on motives which is far from complete, but it seems to suggest that people voted different ways in different contests; for the Trump radical message in the Presidential, but for the conservatism of the Republican Party in House and local elections.
The common wisdom is of course that a populist revolution swept Mr Trump and, by a strange side-wash, Mrs May to power; the opportunistic outsiders flushing away the political establishment (and the Old Etonians), the band wagon only hitting the buffers in France where the ultra-establishment candidate, M. Macron, draped slightly uncomfortably in the flag of revolution, vanquished the populist candidate, Ms Le Pen. But this analysis never quite seems true, more a packaging of unexpected events to try to prove a trend. In fact, The Donald is perhaps the only true beneficiary of a populist backlash – and in lots of ways he seems more like a quasi-Democrat takeover of the Republican Party, albeit a takeover with bad hair and a taste for soundbites.
Mrs May is, we submit, no populist, in any shape or form; she is perhaps the first true conservative paternalistic Conservative to run the party since Ted Heath repackaged himself in 1971. But whether populistic or opportunistic, both have problems now; Mr Trump’s Russian problems will not go away; and Mrs May seems to have forgotten that older voters, as a broad if sweeping generalisation, tend to vote Conservative. They used to, anyway; now they might be starting to think that nice old allotment enthusiast with a beard, who has promised that nobody on less than £80,000 a year will pay more tax under a Labour government, might be a better bet. It was Mrs May’s election to lose, and for the first time that looks almost possible. Unlikely, of course, but she is doing just what Mr Trump is doing, which is to be guided by a very close set of advisors who think just as she does. It is always sensible to be challenged about what you are proposing to do or say, as Canute knew very well. Herein lies the whole point of cabinet government – ask what your colleagues think, and listen to what they say; they may well have some additional or contrarian views on the subject at hand. Also, Mrs M, you then join them in the decision that you all come to – so they don’t feel quite so quickly that urge to start edging you towards the window to begin defenestration proceedings.
Mr Trump does not have to look round the cabinet room to see the danger of getting close to open windows. His danger will come, is starting to come, from the party to which he belongs and which endorsed him for the Presidency. The Republicans will support him as long as they think that he is an asset when it comes to winning the mid-term elections in 2018; if they do not do well then they will almost certainly lose control of both houses of Congress and let the Democrats take over. That will stop most of Mr Trump’s programme too, but the Republicans are less concerned about that than the ending of their domination on the Hill. Already they can see that the rising tide against Mr Trump is liable to wet their feet. What is bad for Mr Trump might be very bad for the Republicans – unless they can distance themselves from him completely. For instance, impeachment of the President might turn out to be good for the GOP; the Vice President, Mike Pence, is a much more mainstream Republican and would probably be a unifying figure able to reunite his party and maybe even win the next Presidential contest. It is a bit early in the President’s first term to be talking of impeachment, but to misquote Mr Trump; he had better hope there is nothing on tape.
How Mrs May is with a tape recorder we do not know. But if she is wise she may be keeping a rear view mirror handily deployed. The Tories, like the Republicans, will generally stick with a winner, but for the first time since she took over, Theresa is looking a bit wobbly on her elegant shoes. In these circumstances, it is not a good idea to have too many enemies. Mr Hammond has probably already decided not to renew his membership of the TM Fan club, Jeremy Hunt (the Health Secretary) has been expelled for backchat, and Boris was never allowed to join in the first place. And as for George Osborne, quickly learning the journalism business, he is spoiled for choice in editorial material. Still, nobody is inviting Mrs M to walk over to admire the view – just yet. But once Brexit is done, or looks as though it may not go well, Theresa is looking a lot more vulnerable than she did a week ago.
The Donald, who may or may not be reading signs of deep trouble coming in Washington, is doing what politicians in trouble do. He has gone on a foreign tour. This will certainly make him feel important, at least in the early stages in Saudi Arabia and Israel, both because as the most powerful man in the world he is important, but also because the Kingdom of Saud and the Republic of Israel are both keen to keep him on side. So far it has all gone very well, and he has been received by both hosts with respect and enthusiasm, and, so far as we know, has not shared any state secrets with them. That will play well at home for a few days, but not well enough to keep him from those searching questions about who may have said what to which Russians. The bottom line of all this is, if there has been improper collusion with Russians by anybody close to Trump, its illegality will get Donald into a very bad place, not just legally, but with his natural supporters in the US, who still think of Russia as the old enemy. If there hasn’t been any, then he may escape trouble and all this will be put down to the lack of knowledge of political protocol of a businessman new to politics.
Maybe Donald and Theresa should have a summit; they could learn quite a lot from each other at this point. Please, though, no tape recorders.
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