06 April 2017
Lack of Energy
Enough to be getting on with.
by J.R.Thomas
If there is a staple subject for the Business Pages of the Shaw Sheet, it is energy. That fabled visitor from another planet might well conclude that the earth is about to run out of power, so much concern is endlessly expressed on the subject, so much worry expressed in print, so much analysis performed on sources and uses. But appearances to humans as well as aliens are deceptive. The truth is that the world is awash with sources of power, we have never had it so good, so available, or so various.
Of course, we have never used as much power as we do in the second decade of this century, and all the signs are that the world’s need for power will continue to grow at – probably – ever more rapid rates. The only reason for that weasely qualifying “probably” is that we do have to exclude such unlikely items as war, economic collapse, natural disaster, and (most unlikely of all) a desire for a spiritual and simple life on the part of much of the world population. Those of us at school in the 1970’s will recall the learned experts who explained, with the aid of impressive research and with graphs of lines intersecting at awkward points, that the world’s oil supply would be exhausted by the year 2000 unless we dramatically cut back on consumption. For one brief moment that seemed true – during the three day week, electricity rationing, and power cuts of 1974, but after that short setback we stepped our consumption up dramatically and now we have 200 years of oil supply at current rates of usage. Though European coal, which we were told was vital for our heat and light, has almost run out…with barely anybody noticing.
The French also got the memo on the imminent emptying of the oil wells and plunged in to construction of nuclear power stations. The result of that was enormous capital expenditure on the part of the French state, and a country that at one stage had over 80% of its power coming from nuclear fission. Even now, with much of the kit between thirty and forty years old, three quarters of French electricity comes from nuclear sources. Not only that, France is an exporter of power to neighbouring countries, with the UK one of the largest through two cables under Le Manche, and has ownership of a significant chunk of Britain’s electricity retail network. And for why, this hegemony in the electricty business? Because France has one of the lowest power production costs in the EU, free from OPEC, coal miners, and grossly expensive sources of carbon free production. All that capital expenditure has paid off, the old plant continues to produce reliable non- polluting electrical impulses (we will take remarks on non-polluting later).
Well, now; France has had no significant accidents of any sort with nuclear power stations since they began building them – we should maybe add the rider “so far as we know”. Nor is there any evidence of unusual cancer clusters or detriments to the public health (so far as we know); and in spite of the English jokes that the stations were mostly built on the Channel coast so that if they blew up it would be the English who were radiated, that is not true (so far as we know). They are in fact relatively evenly spread across France, fifty eight reactors in nineteen operating locations, all run by EDF, and the cheap jibes about age are not fair either; France has continued to invest in keeping them up to date and efficient. But if somebody says at a dinner party “It is amazing how the French can break all the rules of economics and still be reasonably prosperous”, you know the answer – cheap nuclear power.
As you might perhaps cynically expect, this strategy has gone a bit wrong under President Hollande. He has retained the support of the left in a few policies – one is to reduce the proportion of electricty from nuclear sources to under 50%. At the same time France has continued to build new nuclear power stations, and to develop the corresonding technology – with results which have led to the much publicised failure by EDF to start building Britain’s first new atomic power station for thirty years at Hinkley Point. It is not just in the UK that the technical side is causing problems – two fission stations being built in France are running late and very over budget. But they will soon be complete and in production – which will lead to the very odd position – though not if you are as student of atomic fission power production in the UK – that France will have to close several perfectly good stations with further life in them to achieve the 50% target – and replace them with more expensive less efficient sustainable sources.
Power turbines are what we tend to think of when we discuss sustainable energy. There are some in France, a lot in the UK, and a huge number in California which loves green energy. They are expensive to build, very prone to not operating when needed, especially in high winds and none, and do not mix well with birds, or indeed with beautiful landscapes. But at least in the UK it is realised that whilst unsightly and not very efficient on land, the climate at sea is much better for the new generation of turbines, and that is where many are likely to go. On land the future is in a field not far from you – solar panels, massive horizontal rural power stations hidden behind hedges, much more efficient than turbines and almost invisible. And panels are handily rather complementary to turbines – the former being good in the sun, and the latter in windy conditions with cloud cover. The reliably (climatically rather than politically) sunny countries of the world, espcially those who have money to invest from oil under the sands, are looking to move into solar production on top of the sands in a very big way, if they can get round the problem of transporting the power to where it is most valuable. One way is of course is to bring the user to the power – hence Dubai’s otherwise apparantly eccentric move to develop a steel industry.
Also on the way are lots more river turbines, old technology (1950’s anyway) but very good for local supplies – small factories in rural areas and villages from the Alps to the Himalaya. And, on suitable coasts, tidal barrages with power loops in them – very new techology, not quite there yet but very close. Britain ought to be a leader in this but all sorts of special interest groups from salmon fishermen to tourist boards, by way of surfing recreationists, don’t much like the idea. Neighbourhood power and light, taking surplus heat from industrial processes or such things as data centres, and turning it back into power for local use at least is generally uncontroversial. Mr Trump is not done with coal yet and wants to revive that big employer in some of his voter heartlands. There is a lot of coal still under America, and truly massive reserves in the Powder River Basin, though the environmentalists would prefer to leave it there. And then shale oil and gas also underly much of America and, so it seems, much of northern England, though that also gives environmentalists the shakes. Even burning woodchips, a sustainable solution to reusing old coal power stations, is becoming strongly opposed by green activists, who wonder where the wood is actually coming from and the carbon footprint of moving the stuff about.
So our visiting alien, reading about the spread and resources of power around might think that Planet Earth is well blessed, so many sources all about the place. Though he or she might wonder that almost every single one of them has a range of opponents determined to oppose its exploitation. Let us hope that having listened to the debates the alien decides to leave us to squabble and not just tow us into deep space for use as a disposable intergalatic power station.
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