02 March 2017
Football – the new Shakespearian tragedy:
It’s all about money, nothing more
by Frank O’Nomics
Isn’t the FA Cup great? Despite attempts by the big clubs to undermine the competition by fielding weakened sides, the FA Cup still captures the public imagination by giving minnow clubs the chance to dream. Many of us were captivated by the successes of Sutton United and Lincoln City, whose supporters, having weathered years of traipsing from one uncovered windswept stadium to another, finally got their moment in the spotlight. How disappointing then that in the same week a harsh dose of reality was served with the sacking of Claudio Ranieri, a man who days earlier had received the FIFA award for coach of the season. Just a few months ago Ranieri was lauded as the man that had brought the Premiership trophy to 3000-1 no-hopers Leicester City, but football is big business and it seems there is no room for sentimentality or loyalty. Many reasons have been cited for his dismissal, but ultimately only one mattered, and that is money.
Would you spend £3 million to potentially save £100 million? That will sound like a “no-brainer” of a bet to most and is effectively what the Thai owners of Leicester City have done. The cost of severing Mr. Ranieri’s package is thought to be £3 million (he had recently signed a new contract) and the damage to the club’s balance sheet of relegation to the Championship is estimated by Deloitte to be £100 million. The key question then was whether there was more chance staying up with Ranieri or without him, and the club decided upon the latter. They said that they had to think of the 200 people that worked for Leicester City and the core supporters – and here the money factor is also seen at work. Of those 200 people, a significant element is a highly paid group of players. Many of those players have recently signed new contracts (the club was keen to keep hold of its title winning talent) and they – and more crucially their agents – will be concerned about the prospects of playing lower league football in their limited-life careers. Whether or not Mr. Ranieri had lost the dressing room, and there has been a deafening silence regarding any words of support from his squad, they are ultimately concerned about their long-term income prospects.
What of the core supporters? Surely it is disingenuous for the club to say that they were part of the reason for sacking Ranieri? Certainly it seems that the fans have been more vocal in their expressions of discust at the treatment of the club’s most successful manager. However, ultimately the club has a point. Devoted fans, assuming they are on UK average earnings of £27,000 (and many will be on less), will be paying around 5% of gross income to follow their club if we assume a season ticket cost of £500 (Leicester is cheaper than most) and add in the costs of away tickets and travel. For most that expense will rank just behind accommodation and food. For these supporters there is big difference between going to watch their team play Man. Utd. and Chelsea, and watching them play Brentford and Burton Albion (no offence). On this basis after failing to score a league goal in 2017 until this week (after Ranieri’s departure), and losing 7 out of their last 10 games under Ranieri, his sacking was inevitable.
The football cognoscenti will suggest many more reasons for sacking a manager. In this case changes of diet (the dropping of chicken burgers from the menu), changes of tactics, team selection and training intensity (the poor dears had to train more than twice a week it seems) have all been cited as factors behind the change in fortunes of Leicester City. However, some appliance of simple correlation analysis shows that they are performing only marginally worse than you would expect if you plot money spent on players against points won. In 2014/15 the club spent £57 million on its staff – the third lowest level in the league, even having increased wages for key players. They are still at the lower end of the scale. Their spending on new players is also very low compared to the big boys, coming out at a net £17.6 million compared to Manchester United’s £117 million. The truth would seem to be not so much that they are underperforming now, but that they spectacularly outperformed last year – and were helped by loss of form at the big clubs. In light of this, the club has not unreasonably opted to take steps to avoid an expensive relegation.
Gary Lineker has said that he “shed tears” on hearing the news of Ranieri’s sacking and the man himself said, “my dream died”. While it is shocking given the context of last season, it is not surprising when one thinks that four of the last seven Premier League champions sacked their manager within a year of their success. Perhaps that is why Jose Mourinho wore a tracksuit with “CR” on it – he has been there himself. Of the players, only Riyad Mahrez comes out with any dignity, posting on Instagram his thanks for all that Ranieri had “done for Leicester Football Club and me personally”, and even he does not mention any degree of injustice. It will be interesting to see whether, if Mr Ranieri goes to another Premiership club as seems likely, any of his former players decide to join him. Ultimately it will again be only about money and, as ever, if you want loyalty get yourself a dog. The only surprising element in all of this is that the loyal supporters keep faith.
A few years ago Leicester was in the spotlight for being the final chapter in the tragedy of Richard III. How ironic then that this latest “tragedy” ends with the appointment of an interim coach by the name of – Shakespeare.
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