05 January 2017
Look At That!
On the horizon, there, straight ahead…
by Neil Tidmarsh
Hello there! Welcome! Yes, come in, sit down, make yourself at home! You’re looking great, I must say. So young, so fresh. So unlike your predecessor, who’s just hobbled off the premises, poor old thing, so ancient, so battered. I thought I’d have to carry him out of here on a stretcher.
What can I offer you? Some of this champagne? Beer? Whisky? No, perhaps not. I can see that you’re still far too young for any of that. A bottle of warm milk perhaps? Ok. Now, let me help you with those packages. What are they? Presents? For us? Thank you! May I see? This one, for instance… Ah, the label says “Not to be opened until January 29…” What else does it say? “France – Manuel Valls, Arnaud Montebourg and five other candidates fight it out for the leadership of the Socialist party. Primaries to be held on 22 January; if no candidate gains over 50%, the top two will go head to head in a run-off on January 29.”
And there’s another one here, in the same red/white/blue tricolour wrapping paper, but even bigger. The label says “Not to be opened until 07 May. France – Presidential election. Monsieur Not-Francois-Hollande (Socialist), Francois Fillon (Republican), Marine le Pen (far right Front National), Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (far left La France Insoumise) and a dozen others fight it out to become President of France. Primaries to be held on 23 April. If no one gains over 50%, the top two will go head to head in a run-off on 07 May.”
OK, shan’t open that one just yet, either. What about this? Red, white and blue wrapping again, but this time the stripes are horizontal, not vertical. “Not to be opened until 15 March. Netherlands – parliamentary elections…” Oh well, we’ll just have to wait. So – what about this one? Black, red and yellow wrapping. “Not to be opened until September. Germany, parliamentary elections…”
And there are others – so many others – elections in Albania, Armenia, East Timor, India, Iran, Kenya, Liberia, Norway, Portugal, Rwanda, Serbia, Slovenia… a new president inaugurated in the USA (what will he get up to?)… And these others, not elections, but…. I can’t quite see… You’re not sure whether to hand them over or not… Wow! That looks fantastic! And that one… What’s that? Oh no! That looks dreadful! Horrible! And that one… incredible..! Amazing..! No, don’t put it back in your bag! Can’t I see? No? Oh well. All in good time… I’ll just have to be patient…
Listen, I promise I won’t open any of them until I’m supposed to, but can’t you just give us a hint, a little suggestion, of what might be inside..? Those first three, for instance? France, and Holland, and Germany. They’re the ones I really want to know. Is it going to be a hat-trick for dangerous far-right populists – Marine le Pen and the National Front in France, Geert Wilders and the Freedom Party in the Netherlands, Frauke Petry and Alternative for Germany? And what will happen to Europe if it is? You’re not going to tell me? Not a whisper? Not a gurgle? Not a suggestively-raised eyebrow or wrinkled lip?
Well, listen, I had a good chat with your predecessor before he went, while he could still talk, that is, before the trauma of it – the shell-shock – robbed him of speech completely. We had a thorough debriefing. And he reckoned the two most significant things in Europe last year were Hollande throwing in his hand and admitting defeat in all his attempts to change anything in France, and the Italians giving Matteo Renzi a good kicking for trying to change things in his country. And bearing in mind the strange fact that even the demonstrators and protest groups throughout Europe are conservative and reactionary – all those activists and unions and students and extreme parties and protest parties protesting so angrily against any kind of reform, rejecting change so violently.
So he reckons that there’s no way the electorate in Europe is going to vote for any kind of change, reform, radical steps into the unknown, etc, this year. So the safest and most boring candidates are likely to win. And even if Macron or Fillon get in, their promised economic reforms will stand no chance against unions/students/angry workers. So he reckons you’ll have a much calmer time of it than he did. He reckons the shocks and surprises are over. For this year at least. That isn’t to say that they’re right – goodness knows Europe needs change, reform, radical steps like never before – it’s just that they’re more interested in chugging along the same old path even if it’s the road to nowhere and leads inexorably downhill. “That’s the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper” muttered your predecessor with his last gasp, doing his T S Elliot impression. “Between the idea of the euro and the reality falls the Shadow” he croaked, and whispered something about “Hollow Men – paralysed force, gesture without motion – in a dead land…” Morale completely shattered, poor old thing.
Well? Was he right? Are you going to have a much easier time of it than he did? Will you be smiling when you leave here in a year’s time, with a scythe over your shoulder and a long white beard on your chin and an empty hour-glass in your hand, and with another fresh-faced baby following you just as you followed him?
What’s that? You’re going to tell me… everything? But it might take a long time? All year, even? Well, that’s ok, I’m a patient man… Hang on a second, I’ll just grab a pen, I must let my readers know what you’re going to say… Right. Now, tell me everything… in weekly chunks, let’s say… I’ll write it all down as you reveal it. OK. Here goes…
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