22 December 2016
Stepping Closer
Donald Trump chooses his team.
by J.R.Thomas
Whether you see it as a rising black cloud carrying the threat of great storms and endless night, or if you look in the same direction but see the rising sun throwing a brave light across an awakening vibrant landscape, what you cannot avoid is the certainty that Donald Trump will become 45th President of the United States of America on January 20th 2017. Mr Obama is packing his golf clubs and bundling up his papers, whilst Mrs Obama picks the last vegetables from that famous plot on the White House lawn as they prepare to retire to suburbia. And the Trumps will be moving in, or quite possibly not – Mrs Trump is not such a keen gardener and both The Donald and Melania have hinted that they will stay in their penthouse apartment in New York, only using the White House as an official residence.
But the housing arrangements of the new President are not really of such great interest at the moment as the make-up of his cabinet and top advisors, and what that may suggest about the policies and strategies of the new Administration. Practically all those jobs are now announced – though many of them will have to be confirmed in the Senate committees which oversee this process. The nominations confirm what might have been inferred from Mr Trump’s speeches during the Republican primaries and the Presidential campaign itself. It is a strange feature of the campaign that a common complaint from the media and from the Democratic party was that there was no clarity as to what policies a Trump Administration would pursue – and his supporters did not know what they were voting for. Actually, it all seemed clear enough, if not in detail, and maybe the problem was that some of his opponents did not believe that they were hearing what they were indeed hearing. The bad news for them is that what they had trouble believing seems likely to be what they will be getting. And they will be getting it; the challenges by Jill Stein of the Green Party to the results in three States finally fizzled out in Wisconsin, the only one State that actually did a recount – and found it was the Trump support which had been undercounted.
So, here it comes, as promised: a less interventionist foreign policy; possibly attempts for a new and less aggressive approach to Mr Putin’s Russia; a programme of a more focussed but cheaper military which contributes at least proportionately less to NATO. In domestic matters, greater intervention in commercial matters, especially for those American businesses utilizing offshore manufacturing; a move to free trade only on a reciprocal basis, lower tax on the poor and on corporates, and an attempt to drive growth into the American economy by fiscal means – essentially running a short term deficit by borrowing to pay for a massive public works programme. As we have noted here before, the tone might differ from that of Senator Bernie Sanders – but he probably is not quarrelling that much with the detail.
Senator Saunders though might be expected to be less than keen on the tone of the Trump team. It is, above all, rich. Not since the nineteenth century have so many rich businessmen occupied so many influential positions of political power. The core team is very much in The Donald’s own image – wealthy independently minded older men, many of them even richer than their new boss. There are also three senior generals in the group, and two more candidates with military backgrounds. Quite how such mavericks will manage to work together is not yet clear, but American executive government is not like the UK cabinet system, where a group of ministers led by a “first amongst equals” makes decisions collectively (at least in theory); in the American “cabinet”, a much looser concept, each Secretary and office holder runs his own fiefdom, reporting direct to the office of the President, which is very well staffed to be able to deal with that weight of reporting and consideration. Where there are matters which conflict between two areas, or involve fundamental matters, they may be settled by the intervention of the President – or indeed, the Vice-President, a key strength and contribution of Mr Obama’s Veep, Joe Biden – or discussed in cabinet meetings. Biden’s role seems likely to be closely replicated and even enlarged by Trump’s Veep, Mike Pence, who will be effectively Chief Operating Officer. But in the end the decision and the responsibility is the President’s – and the check and balance on him is the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Which is why it looks as though there has been some considerable strategic thinking done, somewhere. Yes, the nominated ones are rich, ageing and male, (and very white) but investigate a little further and things look relatively carefully thought through. The great executive offices are mostly filled by those who are used to holding big jobs and getting things done. What one might call the ideological jobs are filled by those of (strong) views on those subjects – mostly views unlikely to appeal to liberal Democrats (this is not going to be a government promoting green issues). And those jobs which have a political dimension are proposed to be given to seasoned political operators. Though some of them are unlikely to appeal to the present leadership of the Republican Party (which was presumably not expecting joy from their new President), though at least one of them might – Elaine Chao, proposed Secretary for Transportation, is the wife of Mitch McConnell, Republican leader of the Senate. She is one of four senior women in the cabinet group – the same as in Mr Obama’s cabinet, rather negating criticism of the lack of female appointments in the Trump initial selection.
Some interesting names do not appear on Mr Trump’s little list, and presumably are not going to, unless roles are created for them. No Gingrich, no Giuliani, no Christie (that bridge again), and so far no Palin – though she is apparently on the list for Secretary of Veteran Affairs. But Ben Carson is among the chosen ones – as Secretary for Housing and Urban Development – a biggish job for a man who said that he did not want an executive role. The Commerce Secretary is Wilbur Ross, 79 years old but still a man of great energy and focus, occupying what is likely to be a key job in the early months. And perhaps the most important job, for a president who seems to have little interest in overseas matters, is his nomination for Secretary of State – Foreign Secretary in Brit speak – Rex Tillerson, a tough conservative Texan who has headed ExxonMobil and has no political experience but a lot of overseas negotiating practice – not least with Vladimir Putin. Quite what that implies we will have to wait and see.
To those devotees of American politics who have been around a bit, this all has a 1980s feel; déjà vu all over again you might say. A surprise popular choice for President, derided as light weight, not likely to be unduly hands on, from a background so different that his true opinions were a source of much speculation at least initially, proudly old fashioned, with a cabinet of mostly unknown outsiders, themselves conservative and (not to use the term in a derogatory way) simplistically patriotic, and whilst mostly members of the Republican party, not from its powerbase, and with strong business links. Donald Trump is not Ronald Reagan though, and he has not come to office with the sweeping victory that Reagan did.
Trump undoubtedly has spotted a popular desire for change, just as Reagan did; but another less controversial candidate would probably have beaten Mrs Clinton by a much bigger majority – or by a majority one should properly say. But his cabinet selections are perhaps more surefooted than might have been expected, so he may carry through some of what he wants to do.
American politics is in for change, that is for sure.
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