15 October 2016

Ageing Disgracefully

A movement in the balance of power

by J.R.Thomas

One of the stranger things about the recent American presidential contest, something which did not cause much comment but seemed to be a clear reversal of recent trends in leadership elections, was the age of the leading candidates.  Bernie Sanders led the pack in maturity terms – and often, it seemed, in energy, at a Dorian Gray-like 75, but President-elect Trump, still with all his own hair, was not far behind at 70; and in fact all four serious contenders were over the age of 65, and their vice-presidential hopefuls were in their late fifties.

Not so long ago we were told that politics is now the preserve of youth, as though it were some branch of athletics, and that fitness and stamina would trump – er – Trump anytime.  Remember Tony Blair? David Cameron? Barack Obama (he is only 55, so on latest trends at least ten years too young to be President), Mario Renzi?  A certain Vladimir Putin is 64 and almost ready for the top job – if he had not already held it in Russia for 17 years.

So what on earth is going on with the voters?  It is supposed to be a young person’s world; oldies are urged always to think of the earth they will bequeath to their children and their children’s children (yeah, unto generations); as recently as the Referendum we were urged to consider only the interests of the young (some of us did, though as it happened, it accorded with our aged views anyway).  Yet in the American primaries the most popular candidate with the young, by far, was the jolly, relaxed, and informal figure of Senator Sanders, the oldest candidate.

It looks as though when it comes to steering our national interests through an increasingly dangerous world, the gauche charm and fresh faced innocence of the new and unspoiled has worn off and the electorate prefer their leaders to have knocked around a bit, or even, a lot.  Perhaps the virtues of experience and the serenity and wisdom of age have finally triumphed and we can look forward to a more thoughtful, pipe and slippers, style of government  – or in the UK the slightly more lively kitten heels and tailored leather trousers of our new Prime Minister.  Careful though, Mrs M, your predecessor started off cycling to the office and throwing out his ties – but found that his core supporters preferred a rather more time-hallowed Prime Ministerial formality.

Maybe though, what is going on is far from a radical voters protest, much more that the electorate simply wants leaders in their own image.

Because alas, perhaps not alas, we electors are getting older too.  Not just me, and my Shaw Sheet colleagues (you, dear readers, are of course ageless), but, more boringly,  the populations of all western world countries, where the average age moves relentlessly up, and pension and retirement ages creep uncertainly after it, with huge implications for pension and care costs.  As health care improves and we get fitter and cosset ourselves more, we are living longer, working longer, retaining political interests and activism longer, having to wait longer for our pensions, still thinking, even in our 60’s and 70’s, of starting new businesses, educating ourselves further, plunging into new worlds to conquer.  It has always been a known political phenomenon that older people are much more likely to turn out to vote, even in the most adverse weather and when beset by illness and disability, than the young.  Why consider the interests of the planet, you might think, if the young cannot be bothered to consider them for themselves, but we won’t go there.  So if an ever greater proportion of the population is over 50, (the average age of the UK voter at the moment) then the balance of ballot box power will shift slowly but apparently inexorably towards the grey haired and conservative.  And indeed, Conservative; or Republican, if you are American or French.  Mr Putin has an especially loyal following among the older members of the Russian public – and the Russian population is one of the most demographically slanted towards the sunset years (small modern families causing this rather than healthy Russian lifestyles).

A Shaw Sheet reader recently attended a talk by several distinguished speakers on aspects of the Brexit vote, some of the insights of which he has kindly shared with us.  Among the panel was Sir Ivor Crewe, Master of University College, Oxford and a leading researcher and writer on voter behaviour.  Crewe long ago identified the slow but sure erosion of party loyalty as a factor in voter behaviour, attributing this to the decline of the class system.  He forecast that if Labour could start to appeal to more middle class values it would identify with the rising aspirational group who did not self-identify on grounds of class; the rise of New Labour under Tony Blair was vindication of that analysis.

Crewe has recently been looking at age distribution and says that it helps explain what is going on now.  He suggests that we are moving into times which will become more conservative, and, probably, more right wing.  (Our reader says “reactionary”, but we will avoid emotive and judgmental terms here.)  It is long established that voters tend to become more conservative in their views as they get older, and although that may sometimes mean leaning leftwards – as in the former Soviet satellite republics where there is a significant bloc of old voters hankering for their  Communist past, and it is the young who are the freemarket liberals – it does usually mean Conservative, or whatever the local conservative party is.  Combine that with the greater tendency on the part of the elderly to turn out and vote, and the political beliefs of the old are going to increasingly prevail.

Crewe produced some startling statistics on what is going on in UK voter blocs by age. The average age of voters increases by eighteen months every five years – that is every election, effectively.  And there are more than four times as many voters aged over sixty five as there are between the ages of eighteen and thirty.  The grey generation, in other words, vastly outvotes the eager young – and would do so even if young voters showed anywhere close to the dedication to mark the ballot paper shown by their grandparents.  This trend will not continue for ever of course.  What we are seeing is probably a one off shift to longer lives, but there seems, according to biologists,  to be a cap to how long we live – the population of centenarians has gone up, but not that of one hundred and ten year olds.  Indeed some doctors think that modern unhealthy life styles may start to drag average life spans down again.

This, says Sir Ivor, is the explanation of the result of the Referendum and for the victory of The Donald, and the defeat of Mr Renzi in his attempts to modernise the Italian constitution.  Does it also imply an impending victory for M. Fillon in the forthcoming French Presidential contest?  And what might it mean for Auntie Angela in the German elections late next year?  Arguably, trouble for Auntie as she has drifted from her conservative roots.  Beware outflanking from the right, Chancellor.

But for those of us nearing pension age and the need for social care, it might be good news.  Our voter power is increasing every year. The politicians will increasingly have to take note of us as a voting group of considerable power.  Mrs May has recently taken a very keen interest in how Britain funds extra social spending on the old, and the Chancellor did not, as widely forecast for his Autumn forecast, break the triple lock protection on state pensions.  They too may well have been brooding on old age – and old voters.

 

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