29 September 2016
The Lives of Others
Cruz? Sanders? Rubio? Where are they all?
by J.R.Thomas
Ted Cruz. Remember him? And Marco Rubio; his name might be familiar to you? Before we move onto this week’s main event, the debate Tuesday night in Hofstra University, New York, between the winners; whatever happened to the losers?
On the blue side, Bernie Sanders is still Senator Bernie Sanders. Elected in 2012 to his Vermont seat, he retains it until 2018, and with it all his Senate responsibilities and advantages. Senator Sanders, as we can go back to calling him, is one of the most powerful operators on the Hill, chairing several key committees and retaining an almost unrivalled network of contacts – on both sides of the party divide. Although a Democrat contender for President and joining the party for the duration, he will presumably be letting his membership lapse at renewal. Bernie is proud to be an independent Senator, the only one, and most of his recent activities have been to pursue his enthusiasms such as environmentalism, low wage legislation, and the Flint water poisoning case. He has endorsed Hillary for President on several occasions and has spoken at several rallies in support. The Sanders family look to be in line for a further electoral disappointment soon – the Senator’s brother, Larry, is the selected Green candidate for the Witney (UK) by-election caused by David Cameron’s resignation. Larry Sanders is 81, his kid brother Bernie a mere 75. There’s life in those Sanders’ and no mistake.
Mr Cruz is not on the campaign trail – not for The Donald anyway. Ted is still furious at the way he and his family were roughed up by Trump rhetoric, and in any case has a little problem all of his own, caused, not least, by his failure to support Mr Trump. Like Bernie, Ted is a serving Senator not up for re-election until 2018 (unlike Bernie he is regarded in the Senate as an outsider and a troublemaker), and his state is Texas, which is a divided land at the moment. On the GOP side the big hatters are Trump enthusiasts, so the sulks of their Senator are not being well received. So not well received, that Rick Perry, the former governor of the state, has announced that he will run for the Senate in 2018, and is already leading comfortably in the opinion polls. Hard work ahead for Ted seems likely.
Marco Rubio is Senator for the other corner of the South, Florida. He had a little problem of his own making following his withdrawal from the nomination race. He had announced even before his run for the nomination that he was fed up with the Senate as a powerless body and would not run again. His seat is one that comes up in November, so Marco looked as though he might be unemployed in 2017. But surprisingly, in view of the invective blasted between them during the primaries, there is a rapprochement between Donald and Marco. And Marco has announced that Florida needs a Senator like him this time, to “maintain the balance of power that the Senate holds…” So he is running again, he is supporting Mr Trump for the presidency, and Mr Trump is supporting him. He won the Senatorial primary by an overwhelming majority – 72% – and on the evidence of the opinion polls to date he is well ahead of Democrat challenger Patrick Murphy, so will be back in Washington next year, maintaining that balance of power. And ready for another run at the Presidency in 2020 or 2024.
And those others in that crowded Republican race who started with glorious dreams last fall? Mostly gone back to the day jobs – Jeb Bush to a grumpy retirement; the Bush bloc refuses to even mention Mr Trump, in polite conversation anyway. Chris Christie is still governing New Jersey, though campaigning strongly for The Donald (we are avoiding jokes about building bridges) and must surely be in line for high office if Donald wins. John Kasich will govern Ohio until 2018 and then may want to prepare another run at the nomination in 2020. And Ben Carson has also resumed the political stage, campaigning for racial harmony and for more understanding amongst Americans of ethnicity and history. He endorsed Trump when he gave up the nomination race last march, and has supported him since. Trump in return has said that there would be a place in the White House for Dr Carson, who he described recently as “amazing…a brilliant guy with a brilliant heart”.
So to Hofstra. The candidates greeted each other as old friends – as indeed they are. But after that, in conventional terms it looked like a strong victory for Hillary; she was better prepared, well rehearsed, confident, calmly in control. Donald was none of those things, though he was passionate, and at the points where he was thought likely to slip in the rapier (Hillary’s health, Bill’s bimbo eruptions), he didn’t. Whether this was careful coaching by his team, a natural fundamental decency, keeping the killer stuff until later, or your correspondent’s favourite conspiracy theory, that he is fronting to deliver Hillary the election, who knows.
“In conventional terms…” we say. And we say that, knowing that in normal times, the debate would be reflecting in the polls as a Clinton victory, rewarded by a welcome surge to the lady. But these are not normal times. The polls in the next few days will be very revealing. Could it be that the Clinton smooth controlled presentation will be seen as more evidence of that establishment sheen that Trump accuses her off so often, that she is a machine politician, and that Donald is the one true unpolished authentic true voice of core America; and thus result in Trump gathering more of the angry vote? Mrs C put great efforts into suggesting that Mr Trump is racist and anti-women, that he is secretive about all sorts of things he should be open about – especially his tax returns. She made much of this latter – dangerous given the Clinton’s astonishing accumulation of wealth since Bill left the Oval Office. She pointed out that the only time Donald revealed his tax returns (for a court case) he was shown as having paid no tax. “That makes me smart” Donald too quickly replied, as his team no doubt wished they could rewrite and replay that particular response.
Before Tuesday Donald had pretty much caught Hillary in the polls; in some key marginal states he was ahead. It is a great tribute to Mrs C and her team (and a sign of their long experience) that she is remaining so outwardly calm and assured. Polls are not always a guide to reality, as Mr Cameron would no doubt be pleased to advise after his electoral victory and Referendum surprises (both of them). This column has defended the pollsters in the past; here we go again. (copyright, sort of: R Reagan).
Opinion polls are very carefully devised to try to cover a representative selection of the electorate, to weed out untruths, and counter misleading responses. But in the end they only report what respondents tell them. And one thing that pollsters are aware of, and occasionally draw attention to, is that people do not always tell the truth when metaphorically stopped by the man with a clipboard. In particular, if you are a voter who has views that may be unfashionable, or derided in the media, or not those which you think your interlocutor might want to hear, you might be inclined to tell fibs, or simply to say “Don’t Know”. That has applied to Conservative voters, to Leavers from Europe and Remainers in Scotland, and we suggest, to intending Trump voters. Indeed, given the current media stance in the USA, you need a certain degree of bravery to admit to being a Trump supporter at all. Which might suggest that The Donald last week was not level-pegging in the polls, but ahead. Whether Tuesday night will change that, we shall soon know.
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