22 September 2016

Two Steps Forward, One Step Backwards

Isis’s opponents shoot themselves in the foot – again.

By Neil Tidmarsh

Once again, it’s two steps forwards, one step backwards in Syria.  Yet again, external powers involved in the civil war were on the point of burying their differences in the interests of peace, and co-operating in the common fight against Isis instead – only to compound Syria’s tragedy by tripping over their own or each other’s feet.

Syrian peace-talks began last autumn, with the foreign ministers of 19 different countries meeting in Geneva.  That was quite an achievement in itself – Saudi Arabia sitting down with Iran and Iraq,  Russia sitting down with Turkey and the USA – but it soon became obvious that the attitudes of some parties were more cynical than others.  Turkey declared that they would help the USA and Nato in the fight against Isis, sent planes into Syria – and promptly bombed Kurdish forces who were themselves fighting against Isis.  The Kremlin declared that Russia’s armed forces would join in the international fight against Isis, sent planes to Syria – and promptly bombed anti-government rebels who were themselves fighting against and being attacked by Isis.

It was clear that the process needed something to give it a little more impetus – and ironically Isis duly obliged.  Its suicide bombers caused mayhem inside Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and a Russian passenger plane was brought down over Egypt.  All of a sudden, it seemed that these countries, more or less engaged in proxy wars by backing opposite sides in the Syrian conflict (Turkey v Russia, Saudi Arabia v Iran), at last realised that they had to bury their differences, work together towards peace, and co-operate in the fight against the common enemy, Isis.  What could possibly go wrong?

The optimism, of course, was short-lived.  Turkey shot down a Russian war-plane, after the Russian air-force persistently trespassed into Turkish airspace.  Hostilities between the two countries were suddenly ramped up again, with sanctions and accusations and counter-accusations flowing freely.  A month or two later, Saudi Arabia executed the Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr (a spokesman, anti-government protestor and activist for Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority) for terrorism, even though “by most assessments he was a dissident, not a terrorist” (The Times).  This triggered violent anti-Saudi protests in Iran and Iraq, both Shia countries.  A crowd stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, ransacked it and set fire to it.  Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran as a result, as did its Sunni allies Bahrain and Sudan.  Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates withdrew their ambassador from Tehran.  The Saudi Arabian embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, was due to re-open after 25 years, but Iraq’s largely Shia government called for it to remain closed.

How Isis must be laughing, I wrote at the time. Just when it looked as if all parties were uniting against it as a reaction to its bombs against all, successive pairs of those parties break away and square up to each other again, fists raised.

And, of course, it’s much the same story this week. Russia and the USA were about to embark on an astonishing and historic military alliance against Isis, al-Qaeda and associated militant groups in Syria.  A seven day ceasefire between Assad and his opponents was the necessary precondition of this alliance.  It looked as if it was just about holding (in spite of reports of infringements by both sides and difficulties in delivering humanitarian aid) when disaster happened.  US-led western coalition air-forces attacked an Assad regime base at Deir Ezzor by mistake; the bombing killed 62 Syrian soldiers and wounded at least 100. Russia condemned the attack and called a closed emergency session of the UN security council to complain. All the coalition members expressed regret about the mistake, but the Russian and US delegates argued fiercely and both stormed out of the meeting.

And then disaster struck again, only days later.

An attack on a humanitarian aid convoy killed at least 20 civilians and aid workers. The Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) and UNHRC refugee agency convoy was destroyed, apparently by an airstrike of barrel bombs and other missiles, while unloading food and medical supplies at a warehouse at Urum al-Kubra, in rebel-held territory west of Aleppo.  It was clearly marked as a Unicef column, and all parties to the conflict had been notified about it and had agreed on its route to the besieged rebel-held areas of Aleppo.  The one-hour attack, which would constitute a war-crime if it was deliberate, has been condemned by UN secretary general Ban Ki Moon.  Russian and Assad-regime aircraft have been blamed, but Moscow and Damascus have denied any involvement.  All UN aid operations have been suspended.

The Syrian government now says that the truce is over, blaming rebel action and the US attack, and has renewed its air raids against Aleppo.  John Kerry and UN special envoy Steffan de Mistura insist that the truce is still alive and cannot be considered over unless abandoned by both the US and Russia.  The ceasefire’s sponsors are to meet this Friday to review the situation.

It’s easy to admire their determination but hard to share their optimism. Nevertheless, it’s worth remembering that the peace talks in Vienna did in fact survive the shocks of the shooting-down of the Russian warplane by Turkey and the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr by Saudi Arabia, and did successfully deliver negotiations in Geneva between all sides in the Syrian civil war, and lead to the two-week truce in February and March this year. One disaster this week might well have triggered an irretrievable breakdown in US/Russian relations; but the two disasters, tragic though they were, might in some paradoxical way cancel each other out and bring the USA and Russia back onto the same path.  Isis may well have been laughing after the first disaster, but now, after the second, they might be worrying again.

Two steps forwards, one step backwards is still progress.

 

If you enjoyed this article please share it using the buttons above.

Please click here if you would like a weekly email on publication of the ShawSheet