4 August 2016
To The Starting Blocks
How to do conventions.
by J.R.Thomas
It is probably not Mr Trump’s style, but he might have learnt much if he had cleared his diary last week, found a comfortable chair, a plate of cookies, a flask of coffee, and watched the Democratic Convention. That’s how to do it Donald, not the disorganised shambles of the Republican effort of the week before.
Sure it’s not democracy, sure it’s not really a convention, sure it’s all stage managed. But it does give an appearance of unity and efficiency. Mrs Clinton probably had as many embarrassments as the Donald had to cope with the week before, what with Bernie Sanders’ dissatisfied supporters still kicking the furniture bad temperedly, thousands of private emails floating in the air like cyber confetti proving the deviousness of the Democratic National Committee in supporting Hillary, and the continuing fuss over the FBI’s investigation into Mrs C’s use of her private email server for state business. But the lady rode serenely above all this, with her family adoring her on stage, Mrs Obama praising her in an erudite and beautifully delivered speech, various members of the Hollywood aristocracy popping up to praise her liberal agenda and sing, many literally, her praises. Only Carole King slightly spoilt the torrent of goodwill by warm words of acclamation for Bernie. The balloons poured down, everybody hugged, Tim Kaine, her vice presidential nominee, waved and grinned, and Mrs Clinton’s most important journey began.
That is how to do it, Donald. Though his riposte would no doubt be that is just how the power elite fix things all the time, and that what matters is listening to the folks out there, and acting on what they want. It is an odd Presidential race when it is the Republican candidate who is the outsider, arguing the case of the forgotten and downtrodden, and it is the Democrats who represent the establishment and continuity. It should be an interesting contest.
And so far everything suggests it could be a close one. Mr Trump pulled into the lead in the opinion polls after the Republican Convention – perhaps proving that any publicity is good publicity – and Mrs Clinton did so after the Democratic Convention, with the substantial bounce that commentators forecast, though not so much from her carefully rehearsed coronation as from Mr Trump once again, when in a hole, continuing to dig. The hole this time though was a dangerous one to get into. Humayun Khan, a Muslim serving as a captain in the US Army died bravely by sacrificing his life for his men. Captain Khan’s father attacked Donald for his attacks on Muslims. Mr Trump, instead of saying nothing, or praising Captain Khan’s bravery, attacked the soldier’s mother for not speaking out, implying she was anti-American, and called the soldier’s father’s words “vicious”. A bigger hole would be harder to find; one thing the American public do not forgive is any disparaging of the bravery of those who serve in the armed forces, whatever their colour or religion. To then attack a brave dead soldier’s mother is extraordinary. What next; Mr Trump calling for a ban on apple pie? This row continues to run – Mr Khan earlier this week held up a copy of the American constitution and advised Donald to read it; sales of the constitution immediately rocketed, which might mean several things but certainly that this controversy is attracting a lot of popular attention. It even has buried a strange post convention speech by Hillary in which she appeared to suggest that she would send troops into Syria and back into Iraq to eject Mr Assad and enforce peace.
The Captain Khan row may go away – there are still three months to election day – but The Donald has been riding the crest of a populist wave, and it is very easy to lose one’s footing from such a fragile place. Only the fact that Hillary also has so much personal baggage may save him from disaster by gaffes such as this. The art of winning elections is to capture the middle ground of voters – it tends to be only a very small number of voters who vary their political allegiance, and with strong and long established party systems, such as in the USA or UK, the number of nonaligned voters up for grabs is quite limited. So Donald has two risks – one is that the middle ground goes to Hillary, even if only because it dislikes her less than it dislikes Donald; the other is that loyal Republicans will not turn out to vote at all. Plus if Donald really gets up everybody’s noses he may even get disaffected Democrats out to vote for Hillary just to make sure he is kept out. Certainly, any more attacks on brave soldiers and American mothers and all is lost for the Republicans.
Or there might be a surge in support for another candidate. You may well be astonished to find that there are more than two Presidential candidates, but indeed there are. There are in fact 1,817 candidates registered with the Federal Election Commission, though most of them will probably do nothing more to further their ambitions. A few will campaign in their neighbourhood or even state-wide, but probably only two will actually register on any poll of voters. These are Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, currently running on 3.5% national support (mainly on the western and eastern seaboards) in the latest poll, and Gary Johnson for the Libertarian party, who is at 7.2% in the same poll. Both have seen an increase in support since the big party conventions, especially the Libertarians.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Johnson is attracting a certain measure of support from anti-Trump supporting Republicans: Stein from Sanders supporters switching outside the Democrat Party. We will have a look at the Green Party in some future edition, but it is worth considering the possible role of the Libertarians in the campaign now underway. The party was formed in 1971 as a protest group to campaign against the Vietnam War and the perceived authoritarianism of President Richard Nixon. Since then it has enlarged its appeal and now has a national presence – including a national convention in May, in Florida, to choose its Presidential nominee. This was, so it is reported, a proper convention with delegates bargaining and scheming between two front runners – Johnson and publisher Austin Petersen. Johnson got the nomination, together with heavyweight running mate William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts. That Governor Weld is on the ticket shows the danger to Trump if the Republican Party starts to break up; as does the fact that Johnson is rumoured to be seeking, and may get, an endorsement from Mitt Romney. That would be a major boost, but it is one Johnson and Weld will need if they are to have any visibility in the next three months – they cannot participate in national debates unless they can show a minimum of 15% national support in the opinion polls – which means doubling their current position. But it is not impossible – a poll in Utah showed Johnson, Clinton, and Trump within four points of each other, and he is also doing well in New Hampshire – he could at least make the difference in key states if he takes votes off Trump in key marginals, so throwing the result to Mrs C.
But what Johnson and Weld will be hoping for is that the Republicans do decide they have to bring Trump down, even at the expense of living with another President Clinton for four years, and at least tacitly support the Libertarians. That will not put Johnson in, but might make him the instrument of the first stage of the rebuilding of the Republican Party. And maybe make him a suitable candidate for the Republican Party presidential nomination next time round. If the socialist Sanders can get as close as he has to leading the Democrats to the Presidency in 2016, why should not the libertarian Johnson be there in 2020?
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