14 July 2016
The Dog Days of Summer
Choosing a Presidential Running Mate
by J.R.Thomas
Now should be the phoney war, with the Presidential candidates indulging in a little half-hearted sniping to keep their hands in for the autumn campaign but concentrating on organising their coronations by convention later this month and making all those important appointment and funding deals that will win or lose a close contest.
But all that has been turned upside down this time, by the tragedy in Dallas, the shooting of five police officers by a former soldier, a seemingly regular guy, liked and praised by those who knew him but suddenly driven to an unexplained violent hatred by the apparent growing tide of violence by white police officers against black citizens.
The two candidate’s reactions to this were unexpected, with Donald Trump calling for restraint by the police and investigations into police conduct whilst Hillary Clinton praised the bravery of the police forces facing increasing hostility, saying that they deserved the support of the nation. Mr Trump often says the unexpected – and is heavily criticised for it – but as a man very light on political ideology he tends to deal with issues as he finds them, not in the framework of a set of received views. That does not make understanding what he might do as President any easier, but often he is reflecting what he sees as the mainstream heartland American opinion. Just occasionally though he says something which suggests there is a much more radical Trump lurking. Maybe this was one of those moments.
Meanwhile Mrs Clinton is finding the processional way to her coronation (July 25th to 28th in Philadelphia) less smooth than she had hoped. Bernie Sanders is still tugging at her robe, even after finally endorsing her as candidate in New Hampshire on Tuesday. It was rather a reserved and stiff endorsement, and Bernie, Mrs C will be only too well aware, is trying to play the Queen maker as much as he can. That means that he will try to control the “platform”, what Brits may think of as the manifesto. In the drafting convention in Orlando he has made very significant insertions which may yet cause Hillary much trouble – a minimum federal wage of $15 per hour, more healthcare funding to expand Obamacare, and a nationwide end to the death penalty (try selling that one in Texas). The Sanders team said the platform was the most progressive platform ever adopted by the Democrat Party. Nobody was arguing, but how hard Hillary will try to deliver it is another matter.
Nor have Hillary’s email problems entirely gone away. Though the FBI said that there were no grounds for a prosecution, she was severely criticised by the Director of the FBI in his testimony to Congress about the investigation. James Comey said that he saw “evidence of great carelessness” in how she handled sensitive and classified information and that more than 100 emails containing classified information had gone across her private server. That will undoubtedly come back to haunt her. (And presumably him, if he is still in the job next January and Mrs C is then President.)
The Republicans have now asked Mr Comey to further investigate Mrs Clinton’s various depositions, statements, and speeches on this matter, saying that there are significant variations and contradictions, and asking if Hillary may have committed perjury. That seems unlikely to get far, but it must be an annoying irritant.
Mr Trump has other matters to deal with and they are not just opening golf courses in Scotland. His own anointment is coming up next week in Cleveland, Ohio. His first problem is funding; many of the traditional Republican funders are not opening up their checking accounts to fund the convention (conventions are very expensive to run) and even less so, so far, to fund the autumn campaign. Though the Donald does not refer to it, his campaign team are becoming concerned that they will be in the unusual position of being heavily outspent by the Democrats. The main contributor to the Trump campaign continues to be one D Trump. No wonder he needs those golf courses to succeed.
Donald also needs to find himself a vice-Presidential running mate. Not so easy that one; it is a brave and strong character who would want to be sitting along the block from The Donald. However, one such has shyly shuffled into the limelight, whilst refusing to say much on the subject at all. Yes, it could only be, and it is, Newt Gingrich. He and Trump have certainly been talking and are rumoured to be getting on well. Mr Gingrich has been quick to be on message with Trumps public pronouncements – on Fox News, discussing the shootings in Dallas, he criticised President Obama for not bringing America together and trying to make political capital on gun control. So far, so expected. But he then said that it was “more dangerous to be black in America” and that the police often do not respect black citizens, and white people do not properly understand that.
Gingrich is rumoured to be about to give up his very lucrative contract with Fox TV (not only lucrative financially but also as a platform for keeping Newt in the public eye). That may or may not be a clearing of the decks for his appointment to the Veep role. But it will be an odd one if it is confirmed – it is usual now for Vice Presidents to appeal to some balancing constituency of interest to widen the appeal to voters, be female say, or young, or from a different ethnic grouping. Mr Gingrich is male, north-eastern, white, and 73; Mr Trump is male, north-eastern, white and 69. They could be brothers. But Mr Gingrich is still very popular in the Republican Party in the country, and, even controversial as he is, he has great access in all sorts of places that Mr Trump may find useful. Even to funding…
So who will be Hillary’s running mate? Mrs C is a much more seasoned politician, so do we think she will she be selecting her metaphorical sister? “No!” the class might shout out, but actually near top of her list, said to be of five persons, is the white female 66 year old legal academic turned Senator, Elizabeth Warren. She is considerably more to the left than Hillary, which might help keep the Bernie vote loyal (Bernie is not on the list), but Mrs C’s advisors are very nervous about having a second woman by Hillary’s side when trying to attract some, shall we say, traditionalist voters. Such as middle of the road, middle of the USA, Republicans nervous of Donald. Even more so, and for the same reasons, they are very nervous of too many lefty positions – those inserted into the platform by Bernie are worrying enough for some floating voters.
There are two possible strong contenders – Tim Kaine, a senator from Virginia, a working class boy made good, with a populist touch, a Catholic, and a Spanish speaker who would be a good counterfoil to Trump; and Thomas Perez, the very effective Secretary of Labour in Obama’s cabinet who has a latin heritage and good links with unions. Also in contention are Cory Booker, a rising Democrat star, African-American and a senator; and Julian Castro, also of latin background and the youngest member of Obama’s cabinet, but who is generally regarded as having failed to seize that opportunity. And we will also mention Sherrod Brown, a leftish Senator (Ohio, a swing state, very important to win in a tight election). We know that adds up to six – we didn’t say we had seen Mrs C’s list. If only we had access to Mrs C’s emails – but we understand she is more careful with them now.
If you enjoyed this article please share it using the buttons above.
Please click here if you would like a weekly email on publication of the Shaw Sheet
