07 July 2016
Friends and Enemies
Unlikely détentes around the world.
by Neil Tidmarsh
As Britain and the rest of Europe are busy redefining their political and economic relationship, it’s interesting to note that other countries around the world are also forging new ties and restoring old ones. Some of them are surprising, to say the least.
A few days ago, the Venezuelan foreign ministry announced that it is willing to restore diplomatic relations with the USA. Diplomatic ties were broken off in 2010. The Socialist regime has always been passionately anti-USA; President Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez have never lost an opportunity to demonise Washington, regularly accusing it of plotting to overthrow the government and even of trying to assassinate the president. And Washington supports the Venezuelan opposition’s attempts to force a vote on President Maduro’s future.
But it seems that the president recognises that he needs all the help he can get to stop his country from falling apart. Venezuela is in economic, social and political melt-down – anarchy, civil war and widespread starvation are looming. Two weeks ago a senior US envoy, Thomas Shannon, discussed the crisis with the president. No doubt Monday’s announcement of the regime’s “willingness to establish respectful bilateral diplomatic relations” with the USA had something to do with those talks.
Perhaps it isn’t so surprising once Venezuela’s relationship with Cuba is taken into account. The two countries have always been economically and politically close; it was cheap Venezuelan oil which helped Castro’s regime to survive its economic disasters. But last year Cuba restored diplomatic relations with the USA, its one-time enemy. New economic relations with the USA are being forged; a boom in US tourism to the island has already begun. Venezuela is simply following Cuba’s lead.
Also this week, President Putin announced that Russia is lifting the restrictions on travel to Turkey which were imposed last year after Turkish war planes shot down the Russian fighter jet, a crisis which resulted in the breakdown of political and economic relationships between the two countries. But for the last few weeks, both countries have been edging back towards some sort of detente. Two weeks ago, the Kremlin put out feelers to Turkey, and last week President Erdogan made a statement, addressed to President Putin, expressing regret for the shooting down of the Russian warplane. The message has proved to be the first step towards restoring relationships between the two countries; this week’s announcement lifting the ban on Russian travel in Turkey is sure to be followed by others about the restrictions on the import of Turkish fruit and vegetables and on construction projects which were imposed at the same time.
Again, this is hardly surprising when the damage the breakdown inflicted on both countries is taken into account. The two countries have been partners in the past. Turkey needs Russian tourists; Russia needs to sell oil and other products to Turkey, especially after the recent renewal of EU sanctions. Both countries are embroiled in the Syrian conflict, on different sides where Assad is concerned but with a common enemy in Isis; both need more friends and fewer enemies in the region.
Turkey has been busy forging or restoring other relationships in the last few weeks. It announced the restoration of full diplomatic ties with Israel last week. They were cut six years ago after nine Turkish people were killed when Israeli commandos raided a charity flotilla on its way to Gaza. But now Turkey is set to appoint its first ambassador to Israel in six years. Israel will allow the resumption of Turkish humanitarian convoys into blockaded Gaza – the first ship is on its way, carrying 10,000 tonnes of aid. New energy deals will enable Turkey to buy natural gas from Israel.
This détente is particularly surprising, considering that Ankara has been supporting Islamist movements for the last five years, movements which of course are hostile to Israel. Turkey was one of the staunchest supporters of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. But with the demise of President Morsi, Turkey has found itself even more isolated among the powers in the region. Saudi Arabia’s King Salaman encouraged President Erdogan to distance himself from the Muslim Brotherhood when the two met a year ago, and this week Turkey’s new prime minister, Binali Yildirim, announced that Turkey was indeed ready to begin friendly talks with President Sisi of Egypt.
The appointment of a new prime minister to replace Ahmet Davutoglu seems to have given Ankara the opportunity to revise its relationships with its neighbours. In his first speech as prime minister last month, Mr Yildirim announced that Turkey is looking to make “fewer enemies and more friends”.
It seems that the threats to Turkey’s economy and security posed by its isolation have moved President Erdogan away from his religious and ideologically motivated “moral foreign policy” of the last five or six years. If he is indeed reverting to Ankara’s more traditional, pragmatic and realistic approach of “zero problems with its neighbours”, that must be good news for the stability of the region.
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