30 June 2016
Up the Revolution
by J.R.Thomas
Revolutions, like so many things, are creatures of fashion and come in batches. Although the years after 1917 saw revolutions across the world, starting with the main event in Russia, and the late 1940’s saw the revolutionary red blanket fall across much of eastern Europe, it is 1848 that is remembered as the Year of Revolutions.
In France, King Louis Phillipe – the product of a revolution himself – was shoved out in favour of a Republic, with a Bonaparte president who promoted himself to Emperor, as Napoleon III, only four years later. In the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the ruling Hapsburg stepped down with a sigh of relief, with his mild and apparently reformist 18 year old nephew taking the throne. That reforming nephew, so acclaimed by the liberal middle classes of Vienna, was still gracing the Imperial Throne in 1916, by then the most unbendingly conservative ruler in Europe. In Denmark, a new King accepted a liberal constitution that endures to this day; in Hungary, a parliament was established; even in Switzerland a civil war broke out which led to the establishment of the present federal system. There were few countries that did not see some sort of uprising and, whilst not all achieved their objectives, they spun the threads that were to lead to democracy and liberalisation across European states for the rest of the century, if only to be cruelly extinguished, for a while, by two world wars.
So are we in the middle of a new Year of Revolutions in 2016, albeit peaceful (so far and hopefully so remaining) and taking place at the ballot box? In the USA, the Republican Party has effectively been grabbed by Donald Trump, a political novice and outsider who nevertheless has secured the greatest number of votes in a Republican primary contest ever (and also the greatest number against – he certainly got Republicans out to vote, if nothing else). Hillary Clinton came perilously close to losing the Democratic nomination to an outsider who this time last year was not even a member of the Democrat party, and proclaims himself (though recently sotto voce) a socialist. A left wing coup seized the Labour leadership in Britain last year and, although the rumblings in the parliamentary party stemming from the sacking of Hilary Benn suggest a counter revolution, a vote in the wider party would almost certainly confirm Jeremy Corbyn as leader.
Now comes the possibility of a Tory revolution. In fact most sectors of the Tory Party seem to be in revolt against each other as this is written, so it is rather hard for a humble commentator to work out who is manning the barricades and who is trying to overturn them. But one thing seems very clear – the Conservative Party in the country has voted for Leaving whilst the Conservative Party in Westminster is overwhelmingly for Remaining. That sounds like fertile territory for revolt and discord.
In France the National Front (“FN”) party led by Marine Le Pen has become the largest single party (by expressed voter preference) in French politics. Mme Le Pen has turned the FN into much more of a right wing coalition than the extremist nationalist version led by her father for so many years, but even so the FN is still a protest party, taking support from both right wing and left wing voters and weakening the major parties. It does not seem impossible that Mme Le Pen could win the next Presidential election, especially if both left and right leadership contests remain split amongst quarrelling leaders – even more so if the chosen Presidential candidates turn out to be Messrs Hollande and Sarkozy.
France being a country very lavishly equipped with well-funded sociologists and political scientists, much work has been done on identifying those who support the FN and the nature of their support. Not surprisingly they tend to be those who have become, or at least perceive themselves to have become, outsiders to the political process and economic losers in the struggling French economy. They tend to be white, older, from what was traditionally regarded as the lower middle class or the skilled employed working class. This is indeed a group which can be clearly identified across the western economies as being at the forefront of protest movements, albeit protests that so far are being funnelled through the existing political system.
The same thing is to be seen in Austria, where the far right in the person of Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party of Austria came within a whisker of winning the presidential election. In the general sighing of relief that this did not happen, most commentators seem to have overlooked the fact that the Presidency was won by a protest driven outsider anyway – Alexander van der Bellen, a member of, but not officially endorsed by, the Green Party. Extraordinary events indeed – both the main party candidates were knocked out in the first round with eleven per cent of the vote each, and third place with nineteen per cent was taken by Irmgard Griss, a former judge who had previously offered her services as candidate to both the Freedom Party and the Greens.
We will spare our readers a bus tour of European protest movements – though pointing through the window to the fading icon of Angela Merkel, whose right/centrist coalition support is being rapidly eroded by anti-immigration parties. Across western democracies protest and protest movements are the bull stocks. Not just in Europe, either. In South America the protests have spilled out of the polling booths to the streets. There are stirrings in the countries of south East Asia and in China. Only in Russia and in the Middle Eastern states (remember the Arab Spring?) do things seem calm and content (and no doubt coincidentally, the police come well equipped with tear gas and weighted batons).
In 1848 the protests were against many and various things, differing from country to country and from social group to social group. In Austria the aristocracy rose against a monarchy seen as reactionary and dull. In Hungary it was middle class nationalists that wanted to port power to a Hungarian national assembly. In Ireland Home Rule; in France a further reassertion of middle class Parisian democrats, in Switzerland a struggle between federalism and regionalism.
This time the causes have common roots – as befits a globalising world. Immigration is perhaps top of the list of many protestors, though it is immigration with a sharp economic edge. Immigrants from wherever they come are seen as contributing to a cheap labour pool, thus lowering wages and employment rewards. Increasingly we live in a world of migration – even the UK has substantial emigration to the sunshine retirement spots – so it is not surprising that there may well be a slow harmonisation of job rewards across the world. Nice if you are a gainer; not so good if you a loser with a large mortgage. The advent of a minimum wage across most European states is making the West an ever more attractive place to work and thus drawing in a greater labour force – a prime example of the law of unintended consequences. The effects of globalisation you might say – not just Big Macs and Starbucks in every street.
Also a common driver of dissent are perceptions of wealth and power – as in 1848, the rich are seen as getting richer, and the poor as getting poorer, the politicians as out of touch and self-regarding. That may or may not be correct, but at times like this, what matters is the perception, not the reality; the legend, not the truth. The reaction of the UK Remainers to the Leave vote must seem a clear demonstration to those feeling disenfranchised of just how remote from the metropolitan elite they are at the moment.
What happens next depends on the politicians. 1848 shook the world and led to a new political covenant – but it took a long time to get there. If the politicians do respond to the concerns of the marginalised then we may have a period of change but we should avoid trouble on the streets. We can but hope so – our thoroughfares are congested enough without putting up barricades.
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