14 April 2016
Roaming in the Gloaming
By J.R.Thomas
From east coast to west, and even in the heartlands, it is the phony war. The contestants know the big battles are coming; the minor skirmishes of the past couple of weeks don’t matter too much – though losing them matters to The Donald, not one of life’s graceful losers.
The debate on the Republican side remains a rough house, but on the Democrat platform the two candidates continue to be relatively polite about each other. Mrs Clinton did say that she thought Bernie was “not qualified” to be President, by virtue of his lack of experience, especially in overseas matters. A dangerous branch to beat Mr Sanders with, and he immediately grabbed it, saying that Mrs C was the one not qualified, given her record on Iraq, Libya (“ouch!”) and taking money from Wall Street bankers (“double ouch!”). Bernie then demonstrated that he is nothing if not consummate in political skills, withdrawing his comments, saying that of course she was qualified. Moral high ground nicely occupied, victory to Bernie, and a delicately pointed contrast to the bar room brawls in the GOP.
What happens in the next couple of weeks will probably determine the outcome of the Presidential Primary elections for both parties. Two major contests; New York next Tuesday, 19th April, and Pennsylvania a week later on the 26th; together with another mini Super Tuesday on the same day account for 755 delegates on the Democratic side and 267 on the Republican.
With Mrs Clinton ahead by 657 delegates (but only 219 if the super-delegates are excluded) she needs to win big from now on. The super delegates are not irrevocably tied to their original allegiance and if Bernie Sanders pulled ahead with delegates actually won, it seems unlikely that they would try to bounce through a coronation of Hillary at the Philadelphia Convention at the end of July. As Mr Trump has said in a similar context, there would be riots, though being polite Democrats these would be, one presumes, verbal jousts, not pushing and shoving and burning cars. More likely it would turn into a contested convention, and who knows how the super-delegates would behave then.
How likely is that? Mrs Clinton should win New York; she was a senator for New York and has a strong party machine there to get the vote out. Bernie is a New York native, he has a New York air about him (and a New York twang to his voice); but he has long exiled himself to Vermont. At the moment the polls say 54% to Hillary, not that commanding a lead, and have been slowly closing up. It seems Bernie is unlikely to pull this one off; but much about this election has been unlikely. New York accounts for 291 votes, proportionality allocated – but the following Tuesday accounts for 464 delegates, also proportionality shared. Bernie is clearly concentrating on the 464 and whilst Hillary is spending most of her time in New York, Bernie is busy flying around the north east trying to cover everything. And maybe succeeding. Pennsylvania is moving his way – he has closed the gap so far from 38 points behind to 6, and the other five contests that day are also looking like possible wins for him.
This is not good for Mrs C; and it is showing in her face. She looks tired and behaves irritably, and Bill, campaigning for her, has had several run-ins with hecklers that he has not handled with his usual humour. Hillary knows that she could yet lose the glittering prize and at the moment she does not know how to respond to it. She needs victory in New York to be able to present herself as a winner again (she has lost the last eight contests in a row, the latest being Wyoming last week, though the delegates were split evenly on a close vote). Bernie, on the other hand, is loving it and he has the tireless energy of a man half his age. He has a fresh message, a sense of humour, an apparent pleasantness and fairness about him that is very appealing to voters, particularly the young, utterly fed up with professional politicians. Oddly, he is of course one of the most dedicated professional politicians around, having devoted most of the second half of his life to it; and even as an independent Senator, is a powerful chairman of several key senate committees. But he is a nice person with clean hands, and there is a deep suspicion in the heartlands that Hillary isn’t, and hasn’t.
Talking of hands, Mr Trump is struggling more and more on the GOP field. If the Democrat rebel still rises, the Republican version is starting to have that air of sinkage about him. He needs to learn that people often do not vote for you, they vote against the others. Upset enough of them and they’ll vote for the candidate they dislike slightly less than they dislike you. There are days Trump looks as though he could create that tide against himself. He lost in Wisconsin, the sort of heartland he should be winning, and exploded about Ted Cruz, saying he had “stolen” the victory. It made The Donald look like a loser (compare the well-received grace with which he conceded Iowa right at the beginning of this long march); and he did it again after Colorado last week (“totally unfair”, alleging voting-paper manipulation), when all 30 delegates went to Ted. His lead is narrowing all the time – 198 ahead of Ted, and increasingly below the 50% he needs to win an uncontested convention in July (Cleveland, Ohio in mid-July, if you are making vacation plans). In fact, he needs to win 68% of all delegates from now on if he is to avoid a contest in Cleveland. Mr Trump knows that if it goes to a contested convention, the chances are it will not be Donald who is crowned. There will be riots then, and they may be real ones unless Donald calms his followers. And then, expect an independent Trump candidacy. Unless Trump can be bought with a vice-Presidential nomination. We are entering the realms of fantasy here…
Back to reality. Trump will win New York. Cruz is almost nowhere there, with Kasich the second placed contender. Trump should do well on the super-Tuesday polls the following week; they are all, at least vaguely, north east USA, where Cruz is weak. Though Kasich is more on home territory there, they are mostly winner take all, so by 27th April Trump should look much stronger than he does today. But then the geography moves away from him again. His other problem is that the Cruz is much better organised (so is Kasich, come to that) and analyses voter behaviour, knows where to put in the effort and where not, where to get every last vote out, so that on the day the Cruz vote is targeted and being assisted along to the poll booth. Not so Trump, who is relying on free TV coverage and those great set piece roaring speeches. The voters love them – well, a certain sort do – but it is not quite the same as having somebody offer you a lift to the voting station.
If Trump was to call us for advice (nothing on the Ansaphone so far) we would say “Cool it Donald. Take an early night. Practise your yoga. Be nice; think nice thoughts”. Maybe winning New York will have that effect on him.
Please click here if you would like a weekly email on publication of the Shaw Sheet
