03 March 2016
Super Trump in America
by J.R.Thomas
The headlines on Wednesday were confident: It’s Clinton versus Trump! Trump has it sewn up! Clinton has vanquished the challenger Sanders! Super Tuesday had spoken and now it is a gentle jog all the way to the conventions in July. But let’s just look at the actual results.
Twelve states hold their Presidential primaries on Super Tuesday and it is, in a way, the first real fight of the Presidential run-up after the gentle warm-ups of the early single state fights. The candidates can do a lot less of the meet and greet of the voters than they can do in those early contests; they rely more on the big set speeches and their organisations on the ground. This tends to favour those who are well organised and well funded – though the latter is not really an issue this time round. Yet. So it should be good for Clinton and Trump who are both very good at the big set pieces, and especially for Hillary who is supremely organised and has the Democratic Party organisation nationally to underpin her. Trump has none of that, but he is riding the crest of a populist wave which seems to get the voters out anyway.
So, it was a clear cut night? On the blue side of the room, Hillary won 7 out of 11; Bernie 4. Massachusetts was a very near run thing but went to Mrs C; a disappointment to the Sanders camp, supposedly home territory and a hotbed of Democrat liberalism to boot. The south showed very strong wins for Hillary following on from her massive win in South Carolina at the weekend. Here she scored 75% of the vote, suddenly speeding away from her previous three narrow escape victories. Even given her organisational capabilities on the ground to get the vote out – and it should be noted the turnout was 30% down on the 2012 contest (Obama/Clinton, won by Obama) – it was a stomping victory and reflected the great popularity of Hillary amongst the black electorate. The Clintons score well in the South, from Bill’s days as local boy made governor of Arkansas, (where she scored 78%; Sanders incidentally scored 86% at home in Vermont). But that poor turn out in South Carolina was seen right across the Democratic contests – between 30 and 40% down on 2012; which seems to be hurting Bernie. Organisation, organisation, organisation….
In the red corner it was good night for Trump. He took 8 states. But what was more surprising was that he did not take 10. Ted Cruz was always expected to take Texas, his home state. But he added to that, Alaska and Oklahoma. Marco Rubio was not expected to win anything, but he won Minnesota. In only two states did Mr Trump get more that 40% of the vote – Alabama (they may love Hillary there but if they don’t, they really don’t), and Massachusetts (what is going on in the Kennedy home state?). So it was a good night for Trump, but not a knock-out blow. That shows in the delegate tally – he is on 285, but Cruz is on 160, Rubio, the favourite of the leadership, on 87 (Kasich on 25, Carson on 8). That is a far from unassailable lead – or it would be if it was not Cruz who is running so strongly second.
The Republican leadership is said to be in state of panic. Seemingly, nothing will stop The Donald. Curved balls are thrown in front of his feet but roll away, impeding him not at all. Over the last week they included a failure to refuse support from David Dukes, former leader of the Klu Klux Klan; a failure to release the Trump tax returns (supposedly on the grounds that they were not yet agreed with the Internal Revenue Service; the IRS said no problem by them); and a series of insults from Mr Rubio on a level which would have caused any schoolboy’s mother to send young Marco to bed without supper (we won’t repeat them, they are not worthy). Any sort of Stop Trump strategy is clearly not going to work.
So how about getting behind one candidate and making it a clear simple choice? The only moderate left in the race is John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, a popular governor and mild traditional mainstream Republican – but with only 25 delegates so far. Ben Carson seems to have given up, even though still in the listings, and Rubio and Cruz seem to have become the GOP’s very own Pinky and Perky Show.* Rubio ought to be the Republican anointed candidate but he has yet really to look like a reliable and safe pair of hands. And neither he nor Cruz can land a knockout blow on each other. The obvious strategy would be to get all to withdraw in favour of Cruz. The leadership though would rather eat their boots for breakfast than anoint Ted. In fact, they would probably rather have Trump as the official candidate.
They have another Trump fear as well. The latest Washington conspiracy theory, now leaking slowly to the faithful, is that Trump is really a closet liberal Democrat supporter. Vote Hillary you get big hair and leftie policies; vote Trump you get big hair and leftie policies. This might not be quite as unlikely as it seems – Trump was a Democratic supporter in the past and quite close to the Clintons; and his policies are a story board assembled from populist strands from wherever they were to be found. So why not coalesce around Cruz; he is really the only man who might have a chance of bringing down The Donald? Has he really been THAT rude to the party bigwigs in the past? He is Republican Senator for Texas after all, surely everybody could kiss and make up? Is that in fact going on, somehow, quietly, tentatively?
And one more thought. Trump is undoubtedly a comet streaking across the Republican sky. But comets disappear very quickly too. There is always a chance of the Trump rude remark that will suddenly repulse the voters, turn those cheers to jeers. In that case he could sink fast; and there are a lot of Republican primary votes up for grabs yet. If for instance, those redneck Republicans thought the big haired one was actually a man of Democratic leanings and didn’t intend to build his Mexican wall at all, that would change things; wouldn’t it?
While the Republicans are behaving like the Tory Party discussing Brexit, things are comparatively polite on the Democrat side. Conceding and winning is done gracefully or modestly – well not that modestly, this is the USA. The numbers are Mrs Clinton’s now – she is at over 1,000 delegates to Mr Sanders 371. Only a scandal could lose it for her now.
Mr Sanders has at least one lifetime achievement to reflect on, whatever happens next. Ben and Jerry’s, the Vermont maker of one of the world’s finest ice creams (usual disclaimer) has introduced its latest large tub, Bernie’s Yearning. The flavour is mint vanilla, surmounted by a thick disk of rich chocolate. This, the company explains, represents American wealth concentrated in the top one percent, surmounting everybody else below. Who knew ice cream could be so symbolic? The nation awaits a Hillary flavour, and with trepidation, the Trump one pint carton, with reinforced walls and a mass of conflicting flavours inside.
*For younger readers, and those without the benefit of a misspent youth, a pair of pig puppets who argued over nothing much and sometimes sang duets.
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