25 February 2016
Bushed
by J.R.Thomas
Jeb Bush took a mere 0.1% of the vote in the Nevada primary caucus on Tuesday, the same as Chris Christie, but only half that of Rand Paul, who scored 0.2%. Pretty unimpressive – except that all three have pulled out of the race for the Presidential nomination. It must give them a certain glow that some folks love them enough to write them in. But it is the end of the road for Mr Bush, son and brother of Presidents, offspring of a formidable political matriarch, and ex-Governor of Florida. Bush is a clever, thoughtful, amiable man, mild in manner, articulate, and moderate in his views. He looked to the Republican leadership like the perfect candidate for the 2016 run, though creating the extraordinary prospect, in a meritocracy, of a fight between dynastic families (aristocracy may have decayed but brand recognition certainly has not).
But it is not to be. The times are not good for mainstream establishment politicians. Even when, as in Bush’s case, he seemed to have everything going for him; a successful Governorship, a moderate middle of the road approach, a strong power base in Florida (a key state), even an Hispanic wife and good command of Spanish to appeal to the increasingly powerful Latino vote. He played it strategically, raising over US$125 million before even announcing that he was going to run. Then he entered the contest fashionably late so as to create impact. And was roundly beaten in every primary, even in the almost Bush home state of New Hampshire.
It is not a Bush time. The American electorate is as mad as hell with what they perceive as happening to their country, so the commentators tell us, and there is no evidence that the commentators are wrong. Modern media, modern ways of communicating, do not make for calm reflection on complex arguments. The electorate want strong short statements, promises of aggressive action, anger and passion. They want candidates who can capture and reflect that mood in simple heavy hitting messages. It showed again in the latest Republican primaries. First in the South Carolina primary last Saturday. The anti-establishment candidates – Trump (another astonishing victory with more than a third of the vote, and in a state where he might have done very badly), Rubio, and Cruz – won 78% of the vote. Mr Bush won 7.8%, just ahead of fellow moderate John Kasich and the increasingly stumbling Ben Carson. He pulled out of the race shortly after the results, or, technically, suspended his candidature (just in case he is called back to unite the GOP or some such).
In Nevada on Tuesday, the rise of the outsiders was even more pronounced – Trump had 46%, Rubio 24%, Cruz 21%. Carson and Kasich plough gamely on but not for much longer, one suspects. It is starting to look like Trump will do it; the only wildcard being that either Cruz or Rubio pull out in favour of the other. That seems unlikely, at least until after Super Tuesday, where Cruz will be hoping for a victory in his home state of Texas.
It is the eclipse of the Bush clan (probably temporary; like the Kennedys, there is a rising generation of political Bushs working their way through). Jeb is a nice man of politics, but has started to look a bit irritable over the past few weeks – his style clearly was not working with the crowd. “Please clap” caused much hilarity but word is that what annoyed him is the rapid rise of his protégé, Marco Rubio. Jeb thinks Marco is Presidential material and did much in Florida to mentor him. The problem was that Mr Rubio’s Presidential run was to be in a couple of contest’s time, after a Bush Presidency; not in 2016, instead of one.
Before we move onto another nice man in this contest, it is worth a speculation. Should Bush have stayed? It is true that his wife was not happy about his run; and probably true that his financial backers wanted to save what money is left and pass it to Rubio. He may also have been prevailed upon by the leadership of the GOP to quit, to try to give Rubio the moderate label against Cruz and Trump. But Jeb’s polling actually seems to have been improving; and he had yet to fight any states where he had any real natural advantage. That might have changed on Super Tuesday where the ballots are mostly in southern states where he could have done better. Rubio, though polling more strongly than after his slight disaster in New Hampshire, is not experienced and it shows; also he has some history of personal financial difficulties, though after initially stumbling dealing with that issue he has now become more sure footed. Bush might have been able to capture a slow rise in support and been at least Republican insurance against any difficulties Rubio may yet have, maybe even forming a persuasive contrast to the brashness and noise of the Trump campaign if the GOP faithful, unfaithful at the moment, weary of it.
Admittedly, the party has to start to look at who would be able to prevail against Hillary in the big contest this autumn. Rubio has a natural advantage against her and indeed Bernie in that he is young, ethnically from a minority, southern, photogenic, a fresh face. He could be marketed very well – if The Donald should ever let him through. If the leadership had to choose between Rubio or Cruz – who is suffering sustained attacks from all sides and, by failing to knock Trump out early as the Tea Party preference, is liable to get crushed by the Trump steam roller – it would always be Rubio. Cruz has just been too rude about the party leadership in the past to ever be their choice.
Which brings us to another nice man in the current races. Mr Sanders has clearly been enjoying himself over the last few weeks, and was generous in defeat in Nevada, but he must have been hoping that this was one he could win. He would not have been thinking that in early January, but last week the polls were showing him neck and neck both nationally and in the Sagebrush State. As it was, he lost by 5%, a narrow win for Mrs C, but one she celebrated as a decisive victory, not only, no doubt, because of relief on her part, but also because she needs to look like a winner.
Bernie has problems now. He may be capturing the imagination of the young, the radical, the idealistic, and of women, and at the moment he is well funded and occupying the funding moral high ground through private small donations, but the Clinton camp has the squeeze on him when it comes to getting the ballot papers marked. Hillary has been preparing for this run for years, and she has strong organisation in every state. She can get the vote out, she knows where the votes are, she knows the key people and the local issues. Logistics might be as boring as algebra, but the truth is that the extra few votes she can produce makes all the difference in results such as Nevada. That is her strength and Bernie’s weakness. Can the excitement of his campaign and the appeal of Honest Bern overcome the armies of Hillary supporters working lists and doorbells?
We have not yet got to the point where the numbers of delegates start to weave an inevitable result, but Hillary has one very great advantage which is that the Democrat Party awards votes to senior party officials and big wigs for use in the Convention. Of 4,764 delegates, over 700 are super delegates, as they are known. About 440 of those have pledged to the Clinton camp, and practically none to Bernie. That make Mrs C holder of 502 votes and Mr S only 70 – even though they are almost exactly level pegging in the state delegates won so far. Ten states nominate on Super Tuesday – if Bernie does not do well there Hillary will be on her way to a majority. Leaving Bernie maybe to play one last card – that the voting system in the party is not fair and try to turn the popular vote to him from sympathy. That could be a Democrat party bloodbath. No doubt the Republicans will have lots of advice on how to handle that.
P.S We missed last time the withdrawal of Carly Fiorina from the Republican race. Farewell Carly, the only Republican woman on the GOP 2016 slate; another moderate crushed in the big field.
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