3 September 2015
Distant Trumpets
by J.R. Thomas
In the USA there is no August holiday for those running in the primaries either for the Republicans or for the Democrats. Indeed, holiday season is seen as an opportunity for the candidates to get out into the open air, especially to the State Fairs, and push their messages across to voters who might have been hoping to enjoy the early fall sunshine while consuming pulled pork, pork on a stick, or pork patties. State Fairs are not great places for vegetarians, or, indeed, pigs. They are, however, favourite places for the political hopefuls to get on their soapboxes and get some folksy down-home messages across. As you might imagine, this is not Hilary Clinton’s most comfortable or natural place to be, but she deals with it womanfully; Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, who looks not unlike a Vermont farmer, fits right in, and actually seems to relish megaphone canvassing.
Last week both Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump were at the Iowa State Fair at the same time. This is not because they have any especial affiliation to fairs or to Iowa and certainly not to each other, but they both have the same good reason to be in Iowa. Iowa is where the first caucus of the presidential nominations will be held in January next year. This is not to be confused with a primary – the first of those is in New Hampshire a week later. A caucus is a series of open electioneering meetings held in houses and local buildings by small groups of voters. Selection by open outcry, you might say. A primary is a conventional secret ballot. To the candidates the caucus’s are especially interesting, if potentially alarming, as they enable the voters to openly express views.
Although the selection process does not start until next year, it is important to get the impetus of a successful run going now. That means building standing and confidence, the aura of a winner. It means the donations to run both the primary campaign and the presidential campaign will start to pour into the gaping coffers of those who look like winners. And also it means that weak candidates can be knocked out early, as early as possible, to start narrowing the field and funnelling the money. The New Hampshire primary is bound to be a problem for Hilary – Mr Sanders is likely to win it as he is from next door Vermont, so she must win Iowa so as to not run into the sand-drag at the very beginning.
Mr Trump is on a similar strategy. He needs to win well in the first few races to show that he is a serious candidate and to start knocking some of his sixteen rivals out of contention. The effect of the donations pipeline is probably not such an issue but even Trump will no doubt be hoping to get some chunky financial support as he moves toward the main contest, if he gets that far. So he too was strolling round Iowa State Fair in the inimitable Donald style (whilst his helicopter is used to give local children free rides for fun).
But the Donald is also starting to get serious, with the scent of a possible real shot at the top job rising to his nostrils. Amongst all the knock about stuff about repatriating Mexican immigrants, and insulting women’s rights and media women in particular, are some serious political proposals. He has ruled out cuts to Medicaid and Medicare, the state run medical services, and also to social security payments. Now his office has announced that they are working on Trump’s policy on tax.
Not, as you might think, tax holidays for billionaires or incentives for glittery office developments. Far from it. Trump, so it is being “signalled”, wants the rich to pay more tax; Trump says that to live in the USA is a privilege and one that the super-rich ought to be willing to pay a bit more for. On the lower paid he wants less tax levied. He has a particular distaste for hedge fund managers, who are able to use some complex incentives and allowances to effectively roll their wealth up and pay very little tax as they do so, a process called “carried interest”. That will stop, as one of his first acts on taking office, says Trump.
This is of course all good populist stuff but it is not just that – it is all carefully researched by Trump’s backroom boys and does make economic sense in encouraging growth and employment whilst providing limited safety nets through the medical programmes and social security. Nobody will yet accuse the Donald of socialism – he wants tax cuts and less government, but if he is a Reaganite conservative it is certainly conservatism with a soft edge. He was no doubt pleased to see in a poll that he was the Grand Old Party candidate most trusted by intending Republican voters to capably manage the economy. He scored 45%. The next highest was Jeb Bush with 8%.
But whatever warm glow that gave Trump was shattered by a couple of opinion polls taken after the Iowa Fair. The poll showed Trump at 23% of the intending Republican votes – but with Ben Carson, the Chicago neurosurgeon also on 23%. The rest of the field were splitting the vote about 5% or 6% each. What is more, Carson was shown as evoking positive feelings way above Trump, especially among, you may not be totally surprised, women. This may be yet more evidence of the anti-government feeling which seems to be fashionable in western democracies at the moment; and it is also true that Carson has not really said anything or discussed any policies yet. But if Trump has a challenger for outsider populist, he may find that Carson is about to give him some serious competition.
