13 August 2015
Leadership Matters
by J.R. Thomas
On each side of the Atlantic the struggles continue. On the western side of the ocean, to edge ever nearer to being the possible leader of the free world in 2016; on the eastern side, a rather longer term play, to move towards becoming Her Majesty’s first minister in 2020. In fact the latter opportunity may come earlier. The current incumbent, David Cameron, it is usually forgotten in the golden mist of legend which has grown so rapidly to obscure the true events of the Conservative victory on 7th May, may have a somewhat tenuous hold on his current job. A majority of 12 at the beginning of a five year term could soon be no majority at all and puts Dave at the mercy of dissident backbenchers. He is a master of control over his party, it is true, and has the advantage of a widely divided opposition, but in politics the alluring musk of power can easily unite the divided.
Nor should we forget that an early test of Tory unity, the referendum on whether the UK stays within, or possibly exits from, from the European Community, will be upon the cabinet before very long – if the Prime Minister sticks to his word to get it over and done with as soon as possible. You might suspect that given the potential for uproar on the backbenches the timing may quickly start to slip, but Mr Cameron made a referendum a solemn promise and cannot really go through to the next general election without fulfilling it, though let us not forget that another promise was to quit as PM during this Parliament.
The exultation in the Tory Party at holding the reins of power has for now quietened down the internal debate on Europe, but, when this glorious feeling recedes into autumn mists and winter chills, the Europe issue will rise once again like the bogey man. Not that all Tory MPs feel strongly enough to split their party on the issue; there are, however, significant minorities either side of the debate who just might. With that slender majority, the dissenters become very powerful. Even if they might not actually want to bring the government down, accidents and miscalculations can happen and personal ambition, long term calculation of advantage and genuinely held principles, can all create turmoil and unexpected results. Boris Johnson, having spent last year writing his book on Churchill, and finding himself roughed up by a slightly unholy alliance of the lady at the Home Office and the gentleman at the Treasury, is now muttering to his “friends” that the European referendum should be regarded as a matter of principle on which every Tory should carefully reflect.
So the contenders for the Labour Party leadership know that the job may become of greater promise well before 2020. No wonder the non-Corbyn candidates are becoming rather rougher than might be expected in the one thing that unites them – that Mr Corbyn should not be elected leader. Various threats have been made: that if Mr Corbyn is chosen he might face early defenestration or that if he is not elected but puts on a good show he will not be offered the normal consolation prize of a fairly senior place in the shadow cabinet. (The observant will notice that over the weekend Mr Burnham “clarified” his position on this by saying that Mr Corbyn would be offered a shadow ministry.)
It has been suggested that the large crowds which have gathered at informal outdoor meetings to hear, and cheer, Mr Corbyn, were students or union members forced there under pressure (or promised free beer, perhaps). If so, they played their parts well, judging by the vociferous enthusiasm that their candidate attracted. It is said that Mr Corbyn is “exhausted”, collapsing onto sofas with relief every evening – although he would not be the first pensioner to do that at the end of a long day, of course. His plans to renationalise the railways were denounced as a return to Clause 4 (the Blair abolished section of the Labour Party constitution that called for the public ownership of the means of production) – an attack on Corbynomics slightly undermined by the realisation that this was the Burnham policy also. Nobody has yet criticized his beard or, worse still, his Blair-like habit of rolling up his shirt sleeves, but that could yet come.
But none of this seems to make any difference to the continuing growth in popular support as Jeremy strides towards leadership of the Labour Party. One reason for this may be the ability of those with a casual, or sinister, interest in seeing him take the glittering prize to join the Labour Party, and the vote in the leadership election, for a £3 subscription no questions asked. Tim Loughton, the Conservative MP for East Worthing, was unmasked as having joined the Labour Party to, as he said when outed, show that their method of choosing a leader was fatally flawed – though denouncing your rivals for been overly democratic is the sort of thing that might come back to haunt you next time your constituency selection committee convenes.
But to move from the red party on these shores to the red party on American shores. As you might guess, it is still mostly about Mr Trump. The Shaw Sheet does not publish often enough to keep up with the detail of the Donald’s stream of insult and wit, and we have too much taste to more than mention his gross and grotesque insult to Megyn Kelly of Fox News. But gross though this was, nothing can damage his ratings which are now around 24 % of Republicans, with the next closest, Jeb Bush, on 13%.
The insult to Ms Kelly came after the first formal Republican event in the Presidential nomination race. Fox News bravely invited all seventeen presidential possibles to a televised debate which, not surprisingly, turned into good television material by becoming noisy, confused, and, finally, raucous. Ms Kelly was the lead moderator of the event, opening by asking the Donald, whether, if he lost the Grand Old Party nomination, he would run as an independent. This he refused to answer, leading to sustained booing from the audience and opening him to a whole series of attacks from the other candidates. From the Trump point of view things went downhill from there on, with sustained attacks on his attitude towards women and to Mexico. The winners at the end of the evening were generally judged to have been Marco Rubio, Mr Bush’s rival from Florida who remained calm and thoughtful and generally presidential throughout the two hour event, and Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett –Packard, unimpressive so far but who managed to score several major points and look comfortably in command of her brief. Mr Bush did not do so well, looking somewhat hesitant and diffident – though that might have been his placement, next to Mr Trump.
Mr Trump later announced himself the “unequivocal winner” of the debate, adding for good measure that Ms Kelly was “a bimbo” and “really bombed tonight” (as moderator). This, we should add, was not the gross insult mentioned above.
Not surprisingly, the Republican Party leadership is starting to become seriously concerned that not all publicity is good publicity, especially when it is about Mr Trump, and that it may be widely damaging the public perception of the party, the public perhaps believing that Mr Trump’s wilder comments represent deeper attitudes in the party or maybe seeing him as a rich comedic turn. If Trump intends to win the nomination there seems little doubt he will have to change his approach, however much the American public may be laughing at the moment. Certainly, other than their unexpected poll leads and a certain wildness in the facial hair departments, it is difficult to draw many parallels between the Republican challenger and the Labour one at the moment.
