23 July 2015
More of the President’s People
by J R Thomas
In the fast-moving world of presidential hopefuls it can be difficult to keep up. This week we will deal with the rest of the crowd jostling for the Republican nomination, having last week picked off the current front-runners, Messrs Bush and Rubio, two Florida-based candidates with an angle on the Latino vote. And we introduced Mr Trump, who needs no introduction, and who is certainly not looking for the Latino vote. We will come back to him shortly.
But first, a further peek on the other side of the curtain. New Hampshire is the first of the primary elections for both parties. Public opinion polling is already under way, and showing something unexpected: Bernie Sanders, the independent Senator for Vermont, self-proclaimed socialist and rank outsider, is running very close to Mrs Clinton. He is a mere 6% behind, with the rest of the small field pretty much nowhere. To those of us in the UK watching the rise and rise and rise of Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour Party leadership contest, the rise of Bernie may not seem that astonishing. However, New Hampshire is not natural Sanders country. Unlike its neighbouring leftie state of Vermont, it is a swing state, often swinging in line with the national result. It has one Senator and one Congressman each from the Republicans and the Democrats. Mr Sanders may the next door neighbour, but he is not a natural bedfellow to many New Hampshire voters. What may be going on is that Bernie is picking up that mood which seems to be encompassing the Western world, of resistance to the perceived establishment, whatever it may be. If he polls at that sort of level in the primary it will create plenty of excitement – but that is a long way off yet.
That fickle mood, that sense of resistance to received orthodoxy, may also account for Mr Trump’s current lead showing in polls. He released financial data last week showing himself to be worth US$6.8bn (it is not clear whether this has been independently audited) which certainly must make him the richest man in modern times to run for presidential office. Mr Trump certainly has a way with his approach to controversy. Having strongly objected to Mr Trump’s remarks about Mexicans in the USA (“…bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists”), the Ladies Professional Golf Association talked about cancelling the British Ladies Open golf at Turnberry (owned by Trump). But Mr Trump, after praising the ladies’ talent and as “wonderful people”, told them that they were welcome to play elsewhere, and that he would not hold them to their contract. Exit Ladies, muttering and swinging a niblick. More serious is the Donald’s attack on John McCain, former Senator and Republican presidential hopeful last time round, for not being a hero – on the grounds that he was captured by the Vietcong (after being shot down). His remarks, at a public rally, have brought outrage on his bouffant head, so the next set of polls should be interesting. There we must leave Mr Trump, and look at his poorer competitors in the Grand Old Party for the nomination.
A year ago, Chris Christie looked as though he would be the strongest Republican runner in the race. Polls in 2014 were putting him neck and neck to beat Hilary in the main contest, and he was getting support from all around the nation, to say nothing of lots of pledges of cash for his campaign. But he has suffered the fate of many front runners, of attracting too close a spotlight on his record and activities.
Christie is a lawyer who was appointed by G W Bush as a US Attorney, a useful springboard for those making their way to high office in the USA. In 2009 he was elected Governor of New Jersey, where he set about building his name and a record of positive achievement. He revealed a Boris Johnson like edge, a plain speaking “tell it like it is” populist directness that went down well in New Jersey. He made big cuts in the previous Democrat budget, turned around the state finances, and introduced pension and education reforms that (combined with the beginnings of recovery from the recession) showed quick success. Strong leadership in the clean-up after the 2012 hurricane brought him further popularity and got him elected for a second term in 2013.
Then, disaster. Disaster over a bridge. The bridge did not collapse, but Christie’s reputation has. It is as murky a story as the waters of the mighty Hudson that flow under the George Washington Bridge, which is the crossing that did the damage. Somebody, somewhere, whilst major repair works were going on at the bridge, arranged traffic diversions which very adversely affected a borough where the Mayor had refused to support Christie for the Republican nomination. Eighteen months of detailed investigations later, nobody still seems to know who did what, but Christie has not managed to free himself from the suggestion that this might have come from the Governor’s office, indeed from the Governor’s desk. And the jolly front runner now looks like a grumpy bullying politico with some odd friends. In American politics, sometimes these things blow away (Bill Clinton) and sometimes they don’t (Richard Nixon). For the moment, this one is not going away.
Moving on; Rand Paul is a senator for Kentucky and a man who knows a lot about presidential runs. He is the son of Ron Paul, long-serving Texan senator and effectively the leader of the libertarian movement in the USA, who ran for the Republican nomination in 2012, picking up 190 votes in the Tampa National Convention. His son has very much picked up his father’s baton and libertarian ticket. In the current mood in the States, especially among the young, his emphasis on dismantling much of government, cutting domestic surveillance, avoiding foreign military involvements, and low tax, is getting some strong support.
Less theoretical than Paul, but not dissimilar in his approach to life, is Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin. Walker is a man who, in the approved manner, has used the Governorship to prove himself as a candidate for the highest office, and has become hugely popular locally for his modest, unassuming but authoritative style. He is a conservative, a devout Christian, and he rolls up his sleeves and listens to the electorate. Increasingly he is being seen as a middle course candidate who could unite the party (though that may be because nobody quite knows what he thinks…).
Another unknown, and a man who has not held high office or indeed any significant office, is Dr Ben Carson. He is the epitome of American self-made success, from a black family in one of the poorest divisions of Detroit, fighting his way through to study at Yale and to become one of the most famous and talented surgeons in the world. He is now retired, a talented speaker, and starting to gather a lot of support. Like Scott Walker, his views have yet to be fully expressed and subjected to the public gaze, but he is increasingly looking like a possible contender – if he really wants to do it.
That leaves a mere nine candidates to cover. As the Editor is not that generous with his space and as they are yet to achieve prominence with either the public or the bookies we will just name check them at this point.
Rick Perry, senator for South Carolina, is noted as a militarist, not a great angle in these isolationist times; a position also taken by Lindsay Graham, a South Carolina senator of conservative but anti Tea Party views. Carly Fiorina is the controversial former chief executive of Hewlett Packard who is emphasising she can take on Mrs Clinton on her own ground – of being a woman. Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal are both conservatives with Southern roots and with no great following. Rick Santorum was runner-up at the 2012 convention but has now become rather, shall we say, eccentric in some of his views (banning contraception is probably not playing well with the American public.) Ted Cruz, the Tea Party representative this time round, has also leached support due to his rather aggressive self-promotion. George Pataki was Governor of New York and ought to be a natural front runner but has somehow failed to make a mark. As has John Kasich, a long standing member of the House of Representatives and now Governor of Ohio, but at the moment almost invisible.
There we have them all, subject to further entrants. What we are certainly looking at is what could become one of the most interesting races for years (though one suspects a lot of states are going to be lightly governed for the next year). We will soon return, to focus on some other aspects of USA 2015.
