7 May 2015
Saudi Arabia and Yemen
by Neil Tidmarsh
Royal decrees change the lines of succession in Saudi Arabia; reports that the Saudi-led coalition has put special forces troops on the ground in war-torn Yemen; Senegal agrees to send troops to Yemen at the invitation of Saudi Arabia; President Hollande of France was the guest of honour at a key Arab summit in Saudi Arabia. This week there were plenty of signs to suggest that the overthrow of President Hadi of Yemen earlier this year has triggered a critical realignment of forces and priorities in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia taking the initiative.
President Hadi was supported by the USA and by Saudi Arabia. The Houthi rebels who overthrew him are Shias, and reportedly supported by Iran. Saudi Arabia has put together a Sunni coalition of Gulf states to confront the rebels. Although the USA has sent warships in an attempt to prevent Iranian ships from carrying weapons to the rebels (the UN security council has voted to impose an arms embargo on the rebels and their supporters), it is not part of the coalition and its main concern seems to be that al Quaeda is taking advantage of the chaos in the country to extent its influence and seize territory.
Thus it seems that the conflict in Yemen is developing along sectarian lines as a proxy war between two of the region’s superpowers, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The coalition’s air offensive has slowed down the rebels’ advance south of the capital Sanaa but not reversed it, and fighting continues in the streets of Aden. While there are reports that Saudi Arabia is putting troops on the ground, its Gulf allies are reluctant to take part in a ground offensive; so Saudi Arabia has asked Pakistan (unsuccessfully) and Senegal (successfully) for troops.
Saudi Arabia has traditionally found an ally in the United States, but now seems to be looking for new friends. It was critical of the US deal with Iran over the Iranian nuclear program, and is particularly concerned about any rapprochement between the two countries. France was also highly critical of the Iran nuclear talks; President Hollande’s invitation to the Gulf Co-operation Council and his country’s recent business and defence deals with the Gulf suggest that France is seen as an increasingly important Western ally, at the expense perhaps of Britain and the USA.
The decrees issued by King Salman bin Abdulaziz see the line of succession fixed for decades to come, perhaps suggesting a fresh approach, with a younger generation coming forwards; the new heir is 55 years old, the new deputy crown prince is 34 years old, and the new foreign minister replaces Prince Saud al-Faisal who was foreign minister for 40 years. They also reflect a more assertive foreign policy, in which Saudi concerns are apparent: Iranian influence in Yemen via the Houthi rebels, Western talks with Iran, competition in the oil market from US fracking.
Growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is sure to be an increasingly critical element in Middle Eastern affairs, with its centre in the armed conflict in Yemen and its effects – political, diplomatic and economic – felt far beyond the region.
