15 November 2018
Nutters’ Paradise
A second referendum.
By John Watson
What can it be? Is it a revival of the leprosy which spread across Europe at the time of the Crusades? Is it a return of the bubonic plague which destroyed whole villages in the Middle Ages? No, there are no rotting limbs or swollen lymph glands, this epidemic is in the mind and reduces sane and respected people to gibbering nutters. Plainly, it can be transmitted over significant distances. How otherwise could Gordon Brown and Joe Johnson have been infected at the same time?
Of course in these times of Brexit anything can happen, but that two otherwise sane and respected public men should, before it was even known that the officials had agreed Brexit proposals, simultaneously call for a second referendum, and that there should be other voices raised in their support, indicates an outbreak of insanity on a scale not seen since France embarked on the Franco-Prussian war. Just think about it for a moment.
What would happen if we held another referendum and this time decided to remain? Lord Kerr, the diplomat who drafted Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, claims that we could withdraw our notice at any time; but if you look at the text of the Article it doesn’t read that way. Rather it sets a timeline which begins with a decision. The decision is followed by a notice and then, in default of an agreement or an extension of time, by a ceasing of the treaties two years later. Once the decision has been taken and the notice given, it seems as automatic as clockwork.
In a speech last year Lord Kerr claimed that various legal experts agreed with him, but he then stripped the force from that by going on to recite as corroboration statements by European leaders encouraging a change of heart. The truth must be that he doesn’t really know but is indulging in a little wishful thinking. So the only safe assumption is that reversing our decision would need the consent of the other twenty-seven members. Would they accept us back? And on what terms? These uncertainties would swirl around any further referendum debate unless the government had agreed the terms of our continued membership in advance. What price such an agreement from the other twenty-seven? The end of the rebate arrangements? Probably. That we join the Euro? Probably not.
But one thing would definitely be different. If we were allowed to stay after changing our minds, we would no longer be listened to with respect and there would be no realistic likelihood of our pushing through reforms to mould the EU to our will. In effect, we would stay as pure rule-takers, an ugly place to be if the EU makes a turn to the right next year and as the relationship between the members continues to deepen.
It is possible that that outcome can be sold to the British public, but I doubt it. Polls which show a preference for cancelling Brexit could easily change as the difficulties became clear. And there is a factor which is stronger still and that is pride. We have, for better or for worse, decided to leave the EU and to turn back now would be a huge blow to national confidence. That matters little, you may say, when weighed against the threats to our prosperity. Still, voters do not think like that and I would be very surprised if the British electorate, offered the choice again, did not support their original decision. I was a Remainer first time round, and certainly that is the line I would take.
Anyway, it is not going to come to a further referendum. No government would risk calling one because of the risk that they get the same answer again. What fools they would look then.
Having dealt with the insane, let’s go back to the things which are merely very difficult. What is likely to happen? Mrs May has done a deal and it was roundly condemned before anyone had seen the terms. The first step is Cabinet and by the time you read this we will know whether the Prime Minister has managed to corral them. Then it will be the House. Between them, the DUP and those assorted Brexiteers and Remainers who have already decided to vote against will ensure that the opposition can defeat the government; but will they really do it? Despite all the whinging it seems likely that Mrs May’s team have done the best deal they can in difficult circumstances and the public know that. To rock the boat at this stage would be a very brave decision and the Labour party, having worked hard to build up a following among the young, will be nervous of squandering that achievement. Also some MPs have personal ambitions.
Who knows how it will pan out, but the publication of proposals changes the dynamics. Until now Mrs May has been under siege – the politician who had no deal to sell struggling away in a silo somewhere under Westminster. Now she has something she can put to a public which is keen to see this moving to a conclusion. That gives her a momentum which may well carry her across the line.
