2 July 2015
The Refugee Crisis; Any Solutions?
by Neil Tidmarsh
The migrant crisis intensified this week, with violent scenes in Calais, registration procedures breaking down in Greece and Italy and the World Food Programme running out of funds to feed Syrian refugees in Jordan. Last Wednesday, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that about 63,000 refugees have sailed to Greece from Turkey this year, and 62,000 to Italy from North Africa, most of them fleeing the war in Syria which a previous UN report revealed to be the single biggest cause of refugees in the world. EU leaders have tacitly agreed that Europe cannot absorb these figures – Italy finds that its partners are reluctant to take many of its 24,000 refugees off its hands – and have begun to explore other solutions:
Repatriation: Repatriations are “no longer a taboo” said Italy’s Matteo Renzi. “Asylum seekers should be welcomed, economic migrants should be repatriated.” The Corriere della Sera reported that Italy plans to double flights sending African migrants back, from one a week to two. There are moves afoot to give more deportation powers to Frontex, the EU frontier force.
EU holding centres: Last Thursday, EU leaders discussed a plan to set up permanent camps in Italy and Greece as EU-managed holding centres, to facilitate the efficient processing of asylum claims and accommodate refugees for up to 18 months.
Physical obstacles: The prime minister of Hungary, Victor Orban, last week announced plans to build a fence along its 109 mile border with Serbia to keep out migrants. At least 54,000 migrants from Africa and the Middle East have entered Hungary this year. Britain and France are planning to put up miles of high-security fencing around the train tracks and platforms where British-bound lorries are loaded at Calais.
Military action against people-traffickers: Last week, the EU launched a military mission against the trafficking of migrants from north Africa, with its HQ in Rome and an “intelligence fusion cell” in Sicily. HMS Enterprise replaces HMS Bulwark in a fleet of eight vessels lead by the Italian carrier Cavour and accompanied by two submarines, three surveillance aircraft, two drones and two helicopters. The mission will engage in intelligence gathering until the EU secures a UN mandate for military action in Libya which would involve destroying boats and fuel supplies.
Safe-havens in the Middle East’s war-zones: This week, a letter from five of President Obama’s former Middle East advisers urging him to take a tough stance with Iran during negotiations also urged him to create a safe haven in northern Syria where refugees could find shelter, safety and humanitarian aid without having to leave the region. There are rumours in Jordan that there are plans to create a buffer zone between Syria and Jordan, to be guarded as a safe haven by troops from both countries.
Direct military intervention in conflict zones: Armed conflict in Syria is the greatest single cause of refugees, and people-traffickers launching boats from north Africa would not be able to operate with such impunity without the chaos of armed conflict in Libya. The letter to President Obama also called on him to initiate more US military intervention in the region; US special forces troops in Iraq should “leave their bases and help co-ordinate airstrikes and stiffen Iraqi units”, and the safe-haven it proposes in northern Syria could be used to assess, train and equip non-extremist opposition fighters. On Tuesday, Labour sources suggested that they might be prepared to support the government if it proposed anti-Isis airstrikes in Syria.
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Actions aimed at migrants – such as frontier obstacles, more efficient processing, repatriation – can only hope to manage the problem, not solve it. At best, they might work as some sort of deterrent, at worst they could create more problems – encourage the growth of extreme politics in Europe, stretch already over-burdened social and welfare resources, open the door to infiltration by foreign militants and sow the seeds for future home-grown terrorists.
Action against criminal trafficking and smuggling gangs is urgently needed. The EU military mission is an encouraging sign, but it awaits a UN mandate before it can do more than gather intelligence. UN approval will depend on, among other things, the support of the Libyan government – and there are at least two authorities in Libya claiming that status. Libya as a single state hardly exists any more. Even with a UN mandate, military operations against people-smugglers in north Africa will not be straight-forward. It’s unlikely that criminal gangs are discrete entities, completely separate from otherwise law-abiding inhabitants and activities; for instance, it would be difficult to destroy boats before they were used for trafficking if they are otherwise used for fishing and other innocent activities. Commando-type hit and run raids might make trafficking more difficult, but nothing short of a Western, UN-approved take-over in Libya is likely to stop it altogether. With the revelation that the Tunisian gunman who murdered tourists at Sousse was trained in Libya by Isis militants, this may now be an option under consideration.
The only solution to the crisis is to remove its root cause: armed conflict in the Middle East, in particular the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq, and the war against Assad’s government in Syria. The West has been understandably reluctant to commit itself militarily in the region, having learnt painful lessons from its recent experiences there. But at the very least Europe and the USA could follow the suggestions outlined above: the establishment of safe-havens for refugees in the region; a more effectively-directed US bombing campaign; the extension of UK airstrikes into Syria; more aid to non-extremist fighters opposed to Isis and al-Quaeda. The argument that the region’s internal conflicts are none of the West’s business, that the US or Europe has no right to interfere, no longer holds. The Middle East’s problems are our problems once the Middle Eastern refugees become our responsibility and Middle Eastern gunmen murder our tourists.
